Nepali Congress is yet to resolve the general convention issue that has gripped the party for more than two months. While General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa remains determined to hold the convention before the elections, fears of a possible party split continue to grow. If a special general convention is held as demanded by 54 convention representatives, the likelihood of a split cannot be ruled out.
Initially, party president Sher Bahadur Deuba appeared positive about holding the convention before the elections. However, after returning from Singapore where he underwent treatment, his stance has noticeably hardened. Meanwhile, around half a dozen senior leaders have begun openly criticizing Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma for creating troubles within the party. Amid these tensions, the NC is failing to articulate a clear position on the elections.
In an effort to find a way out, Thapa and senior leader Shekhar Koirala held consultations this week. Still, due to ongoing disagreements over the convention, the Central Working Committee meeting has once again been postponed until Saturday. Despite several rounds of talks between Deuba and Thapa, no breakthrough has emerged.
As intra-party uncertainty persists, the broader election atmosphere remains unsettled. Yet Prime Minister Sushila Karki has sounded increasingly confident about holding elections on schedule. Responding to CPN-UML’s demand for parliament restoration, she warned that attempts to revive Parliament could complicate the situation further. In a pointed message to UML, she said: “Even after the election has been announced, the confusion seen on the sidelines of politics within some parties, the demand for the reinstatement of Parliament, and the act of questioning the legitimacy of the government could once again push the nation into a cycle of instability… If one now chooses to take a stance in favor of reinstating Parliament, it only confirms an attempt to repeat the political mishap of the past.”
On Nov 19, Karki held discussions with representatives of the 125 political parties registered with the Election Commission, attempting to reassure them that elections will take place on time. Nevertheless, UML has officially decided to file cases at the Supreme Court demanding Parliament’s restoration.
Amid the legislative vacuum, the government is preparing to issue ordinances to ease appointments to constitutional bodies without parliamentary hearings. However, if the President endorses these ordinances, they are likely to draw widespread criticism, and may face legal challenges.
Adding to the volatility, the clash between GenZ protesters and UML cadres in Bara district marks a serious development. It comes at a time when political parties are already expressing concerns over the security environment for the elections. Many fear that similar incidents could escalate during the campaign period. In this context, a group led by Sudan Gurung is demanding the resignation of Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal and calling for the arrest of former prime minister KP Sharma Oli. Meanwhile, UML is preparing to stage large-scale protests in Kathmandu.
Parallel to this, efforts are underway to formalize a document between the government and various GenZ groups to institutionalize the Sept 8-9 protests. Around 40 GenZ groups have submitted demands to the government. While the current government, which rose to power on the wave of those protests, supports legitimizing the movement, major political parties continue to resist the idea.
Within UML, internal tensions are also intensifying. Chairman Oli has dismissed the possibility of handing over leadership to new leaders, even blocking former president Bidya Devi Bhandari’s potential return by scrapping her membership. Yet Bhandari’s influence remains significant. Senior leader Ishwar Pokharel, who enjoys her backing, is preparing to challenge Oli in the upcoming general convention. Bhandari has been actively meeting UML leaders who favor a leadership change.
Similarly, UML leader Yogesh Bhattarai has grown increasingly vocal about the need for new leadership. Several senior leaders fear the party will face major losses if it contests elections under Oli’s stewardship.
In the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), instability is also deepening. High-profile leaders Sumana Shrestha and Santosh Pariyar have already left, and reports suggest others may follow. The party’s push to secure the release of its chairman Rabi Lamichhane has been unsuccessful, and in his absence, leadership disputes have intensified. Although the GenZ movement was expected to strengthen the party, internal conflict has instead weakened it further.
On the law-and-order front, the government has arrested controversial businessman Durga Prasai on charges of disrupting public order. Prasai, now a vocal proponent of monarchy and a Hindu state, had been preparing to launch street protests. Several leaders have called for his release, citing freedom of speech. A video he released, claiming Prime Minister Karki was behind the GenZ movement, has since gone viral.
Meanwhile, Netra Bikram Chand has formally registered his political party, CPN (Maoist), at the Election Commission. Unlike Pushpa Kamal Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center), Chand has retained his Maoist ideological line. He had previously split from Dahal in 2012 alongside Mohan Baidya.
Despite the political turbulence, the Election Commission has begun preparations for the March 5 elections. It has called on parties to register themselves in order to participate.
Internationally, Nepal maintained a low-profile presence at this year’s UN climate change conference (COP), represented only at the ministerial level and with minimal civil society participation. As usual, Nepal emphasized issues related to climate justice.
