Will the election take place on March 5 as announced by the government? It depends on whom you ask. If you ask ministers and government officials, they insist it will definitely happen.
If you speak with representatives of political parties, you get a mixed response. Many leaders of the CPN-UML reject outright the possibility of elections on March 5, arguing that the current government has no intention of holding them. The Nepali Congress does not oppose elections, but the party remains divided internally. Meanwhile, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal was the first among major parties to validate this government and publicly commit to supporting the elections.
Meanwhile, the GenZ groups, which are split into more than 40 factions, also remain divided. However, they share one common position: before holding elections, there must be an agreement between them and the government on institutionalizing the GenZ movement. Many groups are even refusing to participate, saying that joining elections without laying the groundwork for systemic change would be meaningless.
The international community is broadly in favor of holding the elections on time, emphasizing that they must be free and fair with a level playing field for all actors. Nepal’s neighbors, India and China, also support early elections, believing they will bring relative stability to Nepal. However, China stresses that major political parties must participate. UN Office in Kathmandu is in consultations with
Kathmandu-based Ambassadors to make a common position on Nepal’s election..
Both the government and the Election Commission (EC) are pressing ahead with preparations. In a recent meeting with civil society leaders, Prime Minister Sushila Karki sounded confident that elections will take place, now only three months and nineteen days away. Government ministers and officials remain optimistic.
Security remains a key concern for the March 5 elections. The government says it is preparing a full-fledged security plan, seeking an increased role for the Nepali Army in the integrated security arrangement being drafted by the Ministry of Home Affairs. Regarding police logistics, officials say Nepal has already written to India and China seeking support, and they expect necessary supplies to arrive soon. Preparations are also underway to recruit temporary police personnel for the election period.
The EC is making all required preparations. The voter-list update is underway, with around 300,000 new voters already added. The EC has published the detailed election schedule, with nominations for both First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) and Proportional Representation (PR) beginning on Jan 20. Party registration is also ongoing. However, substantial dialogue between the government and political parties to create a conducive environment is lacking, though PM Karki is in regular contact with second-tier leaders of major parties.
The second-largest party, CPN-UML, rejects the possibility of elections entirely, claiming that the government intends to extend its tenure by repeatedly postponing elections, similar to what happened in Bangladesh. The UML is in talks with the Nepali Congress to forge a common position. The party argues that both should press for the restoration of Parliament, on which the Supreme Court has already begun hearings. The UML has rejected both the current government and the GenZ movement, insisting that all political processes, including elections, should begin only after Parliament is restored. Its dissolved parliament members are meeting daily. At the same time, Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire, also from UML, has strongly endorsed holding elections.
The Nepali Congress is embroiled in internal conflict tied directly to the elections. General Secretary Gagan Thapa wants the party to elect new leadership through a general convention before going to polls, while leaders aligned with Sher Bahadur Deuba want to hold the convention only after the elections. If elections are indeed happening on March 5, the NC is running out of time to organize its convention. There is, however, a strong sentiment within the party that it should participate in the elections to bring the constitution back on track.
CPN (Maoist Center) leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who initially sounded confident about the elections, has gradually shifted his stance and now says that political consensus is needed before moving ahead.
Amid such uncertainty, what are the possible scenarios for Nepal? The first scenario is the elections will take place on March 5 with participation from all political parties, including the UML. This is the ideal situation. If this happens, it would likely steer the country back onto the constitutional path and reduce internal party conflicts. The outcome could be the rise of new political forces, weakening the dominance of major parties like the NC, UML, and Maoists.
The second scenario is that the elections will be held without CPN-UML’s participation. This is possible, as there is sentiment within the government that if the NC participates, elections should proceed, even without the UML participation. However, this could trigger election-related violence, as the UML is likely to retaliate strongly. Compared to others, the UML has already revived its organizational structures from the center down to local levels and is actively mobilizing through street protests.
The third scenario is the government and political parties will agree to postpone the elections by a few months, ensuring participation of all major parties. Under this arrangement, the Karki government may continue, or a new consensus-based government could be formed to announce fresh election dates.
The fourth scenario is neither elections nor Parliament restoration will take place. This would invite deeper chaos and political instability, putting the constitution and the current system at serious risk.
For now, neither the government nor political leaders can completely dismiss the possibility of March 5 elections, nor can they confidently assert that the environment is conducive for holding them. Nepal has held elections amidst uncertainty before—in 2008, 2013, and 2017—and the same may yet happen again.
