Except for the CPN-UML, most major political parties have not opposed the March 5 elections to elect the new House of Representatives. All major parties generally agree that holding elections is the only viable way to end the ongoing political and constitutional deadlock.
The UML, however, has proposed an alternative political roadmap that calls for the restoration of the dissolved House, arguing that the current environment is not conducive to holding elections. The party has also branded the Sushila Karki-led government as “unconstitutional.”
The Nepali Congress (NC), though seemingly in favor of elections, remains ambiguous in its position. The party is currently entangled in internal disputes over convening its General Convention to elect new leadership. Acting party president, Purna Bahadur Khadka, appears more aligned with KP Sharma Oli’s proposal for restoration, while general secretaries Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, who favor elections over reinstatement, are reportedly in secret talks with Prime Minister Karki to create an environment conducive to polls.
The March 5 election timeline is looking increasingly difficult, both politically and in terms of security. There is a deep trust deficit between Prime Minister Karki and the top leaders of major parties. Karki is reportedly hesitant to hold formal meetings with them, fearing backlash from GenZ protesters who have accused the political class of manipulation and betrayal.
Talks between the government and political parties have begun, but largely for show. Only lower-ranking party leaders are participating, and Baluwatar is quietly engaging with less influential figures within major parties who lack decision-making power. Among the top leaders—KP Sharma Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal—Deuba is currently abroad for medical treatment, while the other two remain in Kathmandu.
The Karki administration faces particular difficulty in engaging with Oli, who remains controversial due to the killing of 19 students during his tenure as prime minister. Karki is under pressure from Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah to arrest him, while the UML demands that the government revoke its decision restricting Oli’s foreign travel. UML leaders insist they cannot participate in elections while their party chair remains confined to the Kathmandu Valley.
Karki has also not reached out, at least publicly, to NC’s acting president Khadka or Maoist chair Dahal. Both leaders, insiders say, ignore the advice of their representatives attending meetings at Baluwatar. As such, real negotiations between the government and major parties have yet to begin. No formal dialogue has taken place among the three key political forces—the NC, UML, and CPN (Maoist Center).
Engaging with GenZ protest groups poses another challenge, as there is no unified leadership structure. With over two dozen groups claiming representation, neither the government nor the Election Commission has been able to hold substantive consultations with them.
Meanwhile, the government is preparing election-related policies and bylaws without meaningful consultations with political parties or with youth groups. Despite being formed in response to the protestors’ demands, the Karki administration has failed to reach any agreement with them to ensure a conducive electoral environment. As a result, the political climate remains far from ready for polls.
Security is another major concern. The government and Election Commission are in talks with security agencies to draft a comprehensive security blueprint. The Nepal Army’s role is expected to expand during the elections, though the exact modality remains undecided. The Nepal Police, already short on arms and ammunition, was further weakened during the Sept 8–9 GenZ protests. The government is considering seeking logistical assistance from India and China, but it remains uncertain whether that will be sufficient.
Even if the government manages to create a secure environment, political parties are not yet convinced that election campaigns can proceed safely. The police have yet to recover weapons looted during the protests. Youth wings of major political parties and several self-proclaimed Gen-Z groups remain in a confrontational mode. Unlike the largely peaceful 2022 national elections, the current context poses new and unpredictable security threats.
Time, meanwhile, is running out. Only 120 days remain before the March 5 deadline. If the government and parties reach an agreement soon, the EC could technically conduct the elections within 70–80 days. But given the current political trends, rapprochement between the government and major parties appears increasingly difficult.
Across all three major parties, establishment factions maintain firm control, making intra-party dialogue with rival groups largely symbolic. Beyond the NC, UML, and Maoists, other parties, such as the Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party, have yet to even begin preparations for the polls.
