After years of tension and hostility, India and China are slowly moving toward rapprochement, signaling a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific region. Their recent interactions, notably during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, are being closely observed not only across South Asian capitals but also in Western capitals, particularly Washington, DC.
On Aug 31, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the SCO summit. This marked one of the highest-level engagements between the two nations since their last meeting in Kazan in Oct 2024. The deadly Galwan Valley clash in 2020 had severely strained bilateral ties.
During the meeting, both leaders acknowledged the progress made in stabilizing their relationship and expressed intent to build on this momentum. A particularly sensitive area—the long-standing border dispute—was a focal point. Modi noted that after the disengagement along certain friction points at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), an “atmosphere of peace and stability” had emerged. He further stated that special representatives from both countries had reached an agreement on enhanced border management.
Chinese President Xi emphasized that both sides should not let boundary issues define the overall relationship. He advocated for stronger bilateral cooperation and said, “It should be the right choice for China and India to be good-neighborly friends and partners that help each other succeed, and have the dragon and the elephant dance together.”
The ‘Dragon and Elephant’ metaphor has been previously invoked by Chinese officials, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who in March this year described it as the only correct strategic choice for both sides.
The Galwan Valley clash of June 2020 was the most serious military confrontation between India and China since the 1962 war, resulting in casualties on both sides. The incident led to a rapid deterioration in diplomatic, economic, and people-to-people ties. In the aftermath, direct flights between the two countries were suspended, the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra was halted, and economic cooperation was curtailed.
However, signs of normalization have begun to appear. Both the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and direct air travel between New Delhi and Beijing are set to resume, signaling a renewed interest in rebuilding trust.
The rapprochement comes at a time when both countries are facing economic headwinds—partly due to external pressures such as the US trade war. US President Donald Trump’s administration has imposed steep tariffs on Chinese goods and extended similar measures to India, further complicating relations with both Asian powers.
As economic nationalism and protectionism rise in the West, India and China are increasingly turning to each other—not out of mutual affection but pragmatic necessity. Both countries are exploring expanded market access, supply chain integration, and greater cooperation in global governance.
At the SCO summit, Modi emphasized the importance of the bilateral relationship, stating, “Cooperation between our two countries is linked to the interests of 2.8bn people. This will also pave the way for the welfare of all humanity,” he said. Despite the warming tone, deep strategic divergences remain, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. India is a key member of the Quad alliance, along with the US, Japan, and Australia. The group aims to promote a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific, which Beijing perceives as an anti-China bloc.
India has also rejected China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on grounds of sovereignty and transparency—especially given that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship BRI project. Moreover, India remains wary of China’s growing influence in South Asia, particularly in countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives, where Beijing has invested heavily under its regional outreach strategy.
Despite these regional tensions, both countries continue to collaborate on global platforms. India and China are active participants in BRICS—a bloc that includes Brazil, Russia, and South Africa—which aims to offer an alternative to Western-dominated institutions. Discussions are ongoing about introducing a BRICS currency, although differences between India and China on implementation persist.
In their statements, both leaders recognized their roles as ancient civilizations, populous nations, and key voices of the Global South. They pledged to continue cooperation in multilateral frameworks on issues like climate change, sustainable development, and global economic governance.
India-China relations have seen cyclical highs and lows since they established diplomatic ties in 1950. Major milestones include Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s landmark visit to China in 1988, and Chinese President Xi’s visit to India in 2014, followed by reciprocal visits and two informal summits in 2018 (Wuhan) and 2019 (Chennai). These engagements laid the groundwork for what was once seen as a promising new phase in bilateral ties.
However, the Galwan clash derailed much of that progress. Now, with global realignments and economic shifts, both countries appear to be reassessing their strategic calculus. The recent SCO declaration also criticized unilateral economic measures—widely interpreted as a rebuke of the West’s use of tariffs and sanctions.
“Member States oppose unilateral coercive measures, including those of an economic nature, that contravene the UN Charter… negatively affecting the global economy, undermining fair competition, hindering international cooperation and the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals,” the declaration states.
The meeting between Modi and Xi in Tianjin symbolizes a cautious thaw between two regional heavyweights who have more to gain from cooperation than conflict. Yet, while economics may bring them closer in the short term, deep-seated geopolitical differences will continue to shape the trajectory of the India-China relationship. Whether the dragon and the elephant can truly dance or merely avoid stepping on each other’s toes remains one of Asia’s most critical strategic questions.
