Aging populations used to be a challenge mostly for wealthier nations like Japan. But now, it’s a shared reality—and Nepal is no exception.

According to the Population Division at the National Statistics Office, Nepal’s population is rapidly entering a demographic transition. The proportion of people aged 60 and above rose from 8.1 percent in 2011 to 10.2 percent in 2021. 

Binod Sharma Acharya, director at the division, said on Monday that Nepal is expected to become an aging society by 2054. This will naturally pose significant challenges in housing, healthcare, social security, and economic support.

The global average life expectancy rose from 64.2 years in 1990 to 72.6 years in 2019. Acharya said that life expectancy is projected to reach 77.1 years by 2050. In other words, by 2050, one in every six people globally is projected to be elderly—aged 65 or above.

In Nepal, about 80 percent of the population is expected to live up to the age of 60. Among them, approximately 85 percent of women and 75 percent of men are likely to reach this age. Among households in the richest quintile, 84.7 percent of individuals are expected to live up to 60 years, while only 77.7 percent of individuals from the poorest households are expected to do so. 

Since 1991, the elderly population in Nepal has nearly tripled. The population pyramid indicates a shift from a youth-dominant structure to one increasingly composed of older individuals. This is mainly due to declining birth rates and increased migration abroad.

The child population is decreasing, and so is the working-age population, resulting in a higher dependency ratio. The census data of 2011 and 2021 show regional variations in the distribution of elderly populations. During this period, the hill region saw a notable increase in its elderly population.

In 2011, the elderly population in the hills was 25.7 percent, which increased to 43.6 percent by 2021. This trend is also evident in the mountain and Tarai regions, though at slightly lower rates. However, compared to the Tarai, the hill and mountain regions have seen a more rapid increase in the elderly population.

Thanks to better healthcare, safer water, and improved nutrition, we are living longer than ever. At the same time, families are having fewer children. In 1950, women had an average of five children; now, that number has fallen to 2.3, according to the UN World Population Prospects, 2022.

For years, many countries benefited from a “demographic bonus”—a large, young workforce that powered economic growth. But now, as that workforce shrinks and the elderly population grows, the bonus is turning into a demographic dilemma.

As elderly population is poised to rapidly expand, governments and policymakers around the world need to consider its various challenges and implications. Chronic illnesses like heart disease, diabetes, and dementia are on the rise. Yet many countries don’t have enough doctors, nurses, or long-term care facilities trained to manage elderly health needs.

Also, fewer workers and more retirees mean economic trouble. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already said that pension reforms are necessary in many nations to avoid fiscal crises. But not all aging is equal. In many developing countries, people grow old without pensions, healthcare, or secure housing. The World Health Organization (WHO) notes that aging in poverty is often “aging with hardship.”

As the workforce shrinks, economic growth slows, and industries face labor shortages. To offset this, governments and policymakers should come up with a sound plan.

The demographic shift will transform more than just health and economics. It will reshape how we build our infrastructure, how we design transportation, and how we organize work and education.