Whenever significant political developments unfold in Nepal, politicians are quick to draw connections to India. For instance, in 2021, when the then Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli dissolved Nepal’s Parliament, his own colleagues accused him of acting under India’s influence. Senior leaders from major parties, including Pushpa Kamal Dahal, publicly urged India to “stand in favor of democracy” in Nepal, arguing that Oli’s move was an attempt to undermine the 2015 constitution.
At the time, many political leaders speculated that India’s influence extended to Nepal’s judiciary, suggesting that the Supreme Court might validate Oli’s decision to dissolve Parliament. However, the court overturned Oli’s move, reinstated Parliament, and directed the then President Bidya Devi Bhandari to appoint Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba as the new prime minister.
Fast forward to the present, and pro-monarchy forces are mobilizing to restore the monarchy and what they describe as “true democracy.” Once again, whispers within Nepal’s ruling party suggest that India might be backing this movement. According to The Kathmandu Post, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba raised this concern directly with her Indian counterpart, S Jaishankar, during a recent meeting. Jaishankar reportedly denied any involvement, and upon her return from India, Deuba stated that she sensed no intention from India to alter Nepal’s current political system.
Despite these assurances, some politicians have pointed to the presence of a poster featuring Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath as “evidence” of India’s support—a claim widely dismissed as weak and unconvincing.
Foreign Minister Deuba’s blunt and undiplomatic remarks have drawn criticism from strategic circles. In a recent internal meeting, senior leaders of the CPN-UML discussed the possibility of “foreign forces” supporting royalist movements. Similarly, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal briefly alluded to external backing for the pro-monarchy campaign.
Political analyst Puranjan Acharya notes that while the Indian government may not officially support the monarchy, organizations like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), its affiliate Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and other Hindu nationalist groups have long advocated for Nepal to return to being a Hindu state. Acharya explains that while the Indian government is committed to secularism, these organizations are free to push their agendas in Nepal.
Arun Subedi, a foreign affairs advisor to a former prime minister, adds that while RSS and BJP may not directly support the pro-monarchy protests, India has become increasingly reactive to Nepal’s political developments due to geopolitical considerations.
Former Indian ambassador to Nepal Ranjit Rae emphasizes that Nepal’s issues must be resolved by its own people and leaders. In an op-ed published in India’s Deccan Herald, Rae stated that it is not in India’s interest to take sides in Nepal’s internal affairs. He also cautioned the Indian media, which has a significant audience in Nepal, against engaging in partisan rhetoric.
Rae further argued that instability in Nepal is detrimental to India’s interests as a turbulent Nepal could provide opportunities for external players to increase their influence, thereby jeopardizing India’s strategic position. Historically, both the monarchy and communist forces in Nepal have fueled anti-Indian sentiments and sought closer ties with China. For example, in 2005, shortly after assuming absolute power, King Gyanendra attempted to facilitate China’s entry into SAARC during the Dhaka Summit.
Geopolitical analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta believes there is no evidence of Indian backing for the pro-monarchy protests. Instead, he attributes the growing support for the monarchy to widespread public frustration with Nepal’s major political parties, which have failed to deliver on their promises. Bhatta stresses that the protests are driven by internal factors rather than external influence.
