It has been nearly two weeks since former King Gyanendra Shah re-emerged into the spotlight of national politics. His resurgence has sparked a wave of criticism and aggressive rhetoric from leaders of major political parties, including former prime ministers, who have resorted to harsh and uncivil language to discredit him. Meanwhile, some politicians have taken to the streets to counter potential royalist protests in the Kathmandu Valley.
On March 9, approximately 13,000 people escorted Shah from the airport to his private residence, marking a significant show of support. Since then, two distinct narratives have emerged in national politics. First, the former king appears to be attempting to establish a unified command to launch Kathmandu-centric protests, appointing Nava Raj Subedi, a veteran of the Panchayat era, to lead the campaign. However, despite Subedi’s broad acceptance, pro-monarchy forces have refused to rally under his leadership. Subedi, previously associated with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, resigned from his position to take on this new role.
Shah’s immediate challenge is to unite all monarchy supporters under a single banner. Encouraged by the March 9 turnout, he is preparing to tour other parts of the country to garner further support for the monarchy. However, there are indications that the government may restrict his activities if he becomes more politically active, potentially infringing on his constitutional right to free movement.
On the other hand, major political parties are mobilizing their cadres to demonstrate their strength in the streets. The CPN-UML has been engaged in serious deliberations about Gyanendra’s plans to return to power, with senior leaders discussing the potential backing of royalist forces by external actors. The CPN (Maoist Center) and other fringe parties are also preparing to counter royalist movements, signaling that Kathmandu is likely to witness increased protests in the coming days. Nepal’s highly politicized civil society has aligned with mainstream political parties to oppose any potential revival of the monarchy.
Amidst this political tension, pro-monarchy groups have spread misinformation suggesting that the Nepali Army supports the restoration of the monarchy. In response, the army has reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding Nepal’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national unity in accordance with the constitution. The army’s statement comes amid growing calls from royalist factions for the military to play a role in reinstating the monarchy.
There are also murmurs within political and diplomatic circles that certain forces are fueling pro-monarchy protests not to restore the king but to destabilize Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government. Analysts suggest that increased street protests could pave the way for a national unity government, potentially forcing Oli to step down. Reports indicate that Nepali Congress (NC) and Maoist leaders are already discussing the formation of such a government, arguing that only a strong administration can preserve the current political system. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal is reportedly working to remove Oli from power.
Meanwhile, the coalition government formed by the NC and UML had pledged to amend the constitution, but progress has stalled. However, the NC has taken some steps in this direction. The party’s Professional and Intellectual Department conducted consultations across all seven provinces on constitutional amendments and submitted its report to Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba. The report recommends declaring Nepal a Hindu state in the constitution’s preamble, a move that contradicts the party’s current stance. While support for a Hindu state is growing within the party, there is no significant backing for the monarchy. The report also suggests reducing administrative costs associated with the federal structure, ensuring 50 percent representation of women in state mechanisms, and prioritizing geographical factors over population in electoral constituency delimitation, including reducing the number of constituencies.
In international developments, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba visited New Delhi to participate in the Raisina Dialogue, where she held bilateral talks with foreign ministers from several countries, including India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Nepal is preparing to invite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the Sagarmatha Dialogue, and Deuba was expected to extend the invitation during her visit. The Nepali government is focused on attracting high-level dignitaries from both India and China.
In another development, the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening its partnership with Nepal. A State Department spokesperson stated, “While programs that do not align with American interests have been terminated, the United States remains committed to strengthening its partnership with the Government of Nepal.” The spokesperson emphasized that the US is dedicated to supporting Nepal’s sovereignty by bolstering democratic resilience and promoting economic opportunities. However, negotiations between Nepal and the US have yet to resume following the withdrawal of US support. Additionally, Nepal’s embassy in Washington remains vacant, as Ambassador Lok Darshan Regmi has yet to assume office five months after his appointment. Experts suggest that due to Nepal’s strategic geopolitical location, the Trump administration is likely to continue its aid to counterbalance the influence of India and China.
On the economic front, Nepal’s public debt has increased by 9.93 percent to Rs 2,676.03bn over the first eight months of the current fiscal year, according to the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO). This represents an increase of Rs 241.93bn since mid-July 2023.
There is some positive news as well. Policy reforms introduced by the government through ordinances are beginning to yield results. Nepal recorded its highest foreign investment commitments in the current fiscal year during the eighth month (mid-February to mid-March), with the Department of Industry approving Rs 17.79bn for 40 projects. These projects are expected to create 833 new jobs, bringing the total foreign investment commitments for the fiscal year to Rs 44.66bn across 427 projects. A recent study by the department identified policy shortcomings as the primary obstacle to higher foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, prompting the government to address these issues through recent ordinances.
In Nepal-China relations, Sichuan Airlines has launched its first international flight to Pokhara International Airport under regular commercial operations. Since its inauguration in January 2023, the airport has struggled financially, and the weekly flights by Sichuan Airlines are expected to provide some relief. Additionally, a business delegation from Sichuan has reached agreements with Pokhara, potentially fostering further economic collaboration.
