Nepal’s political evolution, from its unification in 1768 to the establishment of a federal democratic republic in May 2008, has been a tumultuous journey marked by significant milestones and setbacks. This transformation has been shaped by a complex interplay of historical, socio-political, economic, and geopolitical factors. As Nepal stands at the edge of change, it faces a dynamic landscape—some forces pushing it toward progress, while others present formidable obstacles. The country’s political environment remains volatile, uncertain, and ambiguous, with the resurgence of pro-monarchy sentiments adding a new layer of complexity to its democratic experiment.
Resurgence of monarchy
Former King Gyanendra Shah, who abdicated his throne in 2008 to facilitate Nepal’s transition to a secular federal republic, has re-emerged as a focal point in the nation’s political discourse. His recent activities—returning to Kathmandu after spending two months in Nepalganj and Pokhara, and consulting with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in Lucknow—have sparked widespread speculation about the possible restoration of the monarchy. Adityanath, a vocal advocate for a Hindu Kingdom in Nepal, has further fueled these discussions. Meanwhile, regional powers like China and India, as well as global democratic forces, are closely monitoring the situation.
The former king’s appeal to the people to rise for the nation has resonated with some segments of society, creating fertile ground for a renewed debate about Nepal’s political future. His message emphasizes national unity, credible democracy, and a renewed sense of identity—elements that are crucial for Nepal’s strategic stability. However, the dysfunctional democracy, characterized by poor governance, corruption, and self-interest, remains a significant obstacle to achieving these goals.
Polarization and elusive stability
Nepal’s democracy is currently caught between two opposing forces: pro-monarchist electorates advocating for the return of the kingdom and republican forces, which have been marred by allegations of inefficiency and corruption. This polarization has left Nepali society deeply divided. While the people yearn for strategic stability, questions linger: Is Nepal ready for change, or is it still awaiting cues from external powers like Beijing, Delhi, or Washington? The current political system, plagued by poor governance and a lack of meritocracy, has eroded national trustworthiness. The intertwined issues of political, economic, and security affairs demand collective solutions, yet time is running out.
The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), which holds 14 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives, has been vocal in its support for the monarchy. Alongside the Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal (RPPN) and businessman turned activist Durga Prasai, the RPP has actively participated in rallies demanding the restoration of the monarchy and the abolition of the federal republican system. Slogans like “We want our King back” and “The King and the country are dearer than our life” have become rallying cries for pro-monarchy supporters.
Republican forces on the defensive
The resurgence of royalist sentiment has alarmed republican forces, who view it as a threat to the federal democratic system. Leaders from the three major parties—former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress (NC), Prime Minister KP Oli of the CPN (UML), and former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the CPN (Maoist Center)—have dismissed the pro-monarchy movement as insignificant. However, their own unpopularity, stemming from allegations of institutional corruption, has weakened their stance.
Deuba downplayed the recent pro-monarchy rally in Kathmandu as a “regular event,” while Oli emphasized the need to focus on democratic and constitutional activities. Dahal, on the other hand, criticized both the pro-monarchy forces and the ruling alliance, blaming the government for failing to address public frustration. The Samajbadi Morcha (Socialist Front), a coalition of leftist parties formed on June 19, 2023, is preparing to hold a protest rally on March 28 to defend republican values. Meanwhile, Madhav Kumar Nepal, chairperson of the Unified Socialist Party, has blamed Prime Minister Oli for the resurgence of “reactionary elements” and called for a two-month-long protest to address the country’s political and social issues.
Historical context
To fully understand Nepal’s current political landscape, it is essential to consider its historical context. The Treaty of Sugauli, signed in 1815, reshaped Nepal’s borders and relations with the British Empire, marking the beginning of a long period of external influence and internal struggle. The Rana regime (1846–1951), characterized by hereditary authoritarian rule, further entrenched feudalism and autocracy. The dawn of democracy in 1951, marked by the Treaty of Peace and Friendship with India, laid the foundation for bilateral relations but also sowed the seeds of dependency.
The 1990 People’s Movement (Jana-Andolan) reignited democratic aspirations, but the triangular conflict between monarchist forces, democrats, and Maoists complicated the transition. The 12-point agreement in Delhi in 2005, which brought Maoists into the democratic framework, was a turning point. However, the transition to a federal democratic republic introduced new complexities, including unaccountable leadership and governance challenges.
Fragmentation and governance challenges
Nepal’s political landscape remains fragmented, with multiple parties representing regional, ethnic, and ideological interests. This fragmentation has led to unstable coalition governments and frequent changes in leadership—13 prime ministers in 16 years. The lack of policy continuity and institutional development has further undermined governance. The pro-monarchy movement, while gaining traction, faces internal divisions. RPP Chair Rajendra Lingden has distanced his party from Navaraj Subedi’s People’s Movement Committee, despite senior RPP members joining the mobilization effort. The former king’s attempt to unify pro-monarchy forces under Subedi’s leadership reflects a last-ditch effort to gauge public support for a royal comeback. However, the movement’s success remains uncertain.
The role of civil society and grassroots movements
Civil society, activists, and grassroots movements play a crucial role in driving political transformation. By advocating for transparency, accountability, and civic engagement, they can help bridge the gap between the people and the political establishment. Initiatives aimed at promoting democratic governance, human rights, and social justice are vital for holding the political elite accountable and fostering a culture of active citizenship.
The way forward
Nepal stands at a critical crossroads. The current political system, characterized by corruption, inefficiency, and fragmentation, has failed to deliver good governance. The people’s frustration with the status quo has created an opening for alternative political discourses, including the restoration of the monarchy. However, the success of any political transformation depends on addressing the root causes of instability: poor governance, institutional corruption, and socio-economic disparities.
Reforming the constitution to create a more functional democracy is essential. This includes ensuring greater accountability, transparency, and representation for all citizens. Geopolitical integration can also play a role in supporting Nepal’s democratic aspirations, but it must be approached with caution to avoid external interference.
Nepal’s political transformation is a delicate balancing act. The country must navigate its historical legacies, socio-economic challenges, and diverse aspirations while fostering dialogue and cooperation among stakeholders. The success of this transformation hinges on the ability of political leaders to prioritize democracy, justice, and development over self-interest and geopolitical maneuvering.
As Nepal moves forward, it must strive to unite its diverse voices and create an inclusive political framework. The current system, with its flaws and failures, cannot sustain the nation’s aspirations. Whether through constitutional reform, a national unity government, or a renewed commitment to democratic values, Nepal must seize this moment to redefine its future. The ball is in the court of its political leaders, and the choices they make will determine whether Nepal emerges as a resilient, inclusive nation or remains trapped in a cycle of instability.
The author, a retired Major General of the Nepali Army, is a strategic analyst
