Oli’s political document and future of NC-UML coalition

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s recent 47-page political document offers a detailed justification for his decision to form a ruling coalition with the largest party, Nepali Congress (NC). A close reading of this document reveals that the CPN-UML is unlikely to sever its alliance with NC before the 2027 elections, as Oli describes this coalition as a ‘new political course’. This marks the first Central Committee meeting Oli has chaired since becoming prime minister for the third time in July last year.

According to the document, the idea of a coalition with NC had been under consideration even before the 2022 elections. Oli notes that the UML had proposed to NC that it contest the elections independently, without forming an alliance with the CPN (Maoist Center). This proposal, however, was not accepted by NC, leading to the formation of alliances out of necessity rather than preference.

Historical context of collaboration

Oli’s document traces the historical precedents of collaboration between the UML and NC, emphasizing their shared roles in pivotal moments of Nepal’s political history. He highlights their partnership during the 1990 democratic movement, their joint efforts in the 2006 second people’s movement, and their collaboration in promulgating the 2015 constitution. After the second Constituent Assembly elections, NC and UML formed a government that played a crucial role in drafting the constitution. Oli argues that this historical context underscores the natural alignment of the two largest parties in times of national need.

Following the 2022 elections, the UML had initially proposed to NC that they form a government together to ensure political stability. However, NC declined the proposal, leading UML to form a coalition with other parties, including the Maoist Center. This alliance proved fragile and eventually collapsed when the Maoist Center supported NC’s candidate, Ram Chandra Poudel, in the presidential elections. Subsequently, UML returned to its long-standing proposition of a coalition with NC, which Oli asserts was driven by a commitment to political stability rather than opportunism.

Justifying the coalition

Oli’s document provides a critical analysis of the 2022 election results, arguing that the fragmented mandate failed to deliver the political stability the country desperately needed. He describes the results as fostering instability and weakening the ability of any single political force to lead decisively. Oli criticizes Maoist Center leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal for engaging in opportunistic behavior and secret consultations with other parties, actions that he claims undermined trust and governance.

The coalition with NC, according to Oli, was therefore a calculated response to the prevailing political instability. He portrays the alliance as a means to foster hope and trust among the populace, mitigate societal pessimism, and bolster the democratic process. Oli also contends that the partnership is vital for addressing growing geopolitical challenges and ensuring Nepal’s national interests are safeguarded in an increasingly polarized global environment.

Mechanisms for collaboration

To ensure effective governance, UML and NC have established several bilateral mechanisms aimed at addressing key national issues. These include working groups focused on constitutional amendments, federalism implementation, pending legislation, governance reform, economic restructuring, and public expenditure management. These mechanisms are intended to bridge differences between the parties and provide actionable inputs to the coalition government.

Oli claims that these collaborative efforts have already yielded significant results, citing the passage of the transitional justice bill with all-party consensus as a major achievement. However, he acknowledges delays in appointing members to the transitional justice mechanism, a gap that needs urgent attention.

Economic and foreign policy perspectives

On the economic front, Oli’s document expresses cautious optimism, stating that the country’s economic situation is gradually improving despite unfavorable indicators. He argues that the strong coalition government has boosted private sector confidence, which is crucial for sustained economic recovery. Oli’s administration has also prioritized governance reforms and efforts to streamline public expenditure, which he believes will yield long-term benefits.

In terms of foreign policy, Oli highlights achievements such as his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the 79th General Assembly. He emphasizes the importance of the Framework Agreement on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), viewing it as a critical step toward improving Nepal’s connectivity infrastructure, diversifying transit facilities, and enhancing trade opportunities. Oli acknowledges the need for vigilance regarding the escalating China-US rivalry and its potential implications for Nepal, advocating for a balanced and pragmatic approach to international relations.

Future prospects of the coalition

Oli’s document suggests that the UML-NC coalition is not merely a temporary arrangement but a long-term strategic partnership. He underscores that the UML remains committed to the alliance as long as NC upholds its end of the agreement. Oli’s vision for the coalition extends beyond the immediate term, framing it as a cornerstone for ensuring political stability, fostering democratic values, and addressing Nepal’s pressing socio-economic challenges.

Six months into the coalition government, Oli asserts that it has already delivered a message of stability and progress, countering widespread skepticism about its longevity. He envisions the alliance as a platform for addressing deep-rooted issues such as governance inefficiencies, economic stagnation, and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

Prime Minister Oli’s political document serves as a comprehensive defense of the UML’s decision to partner with NC, highlighting its historical, political, and strategic rationale. By framing the alliance as a necessity born out of a commitment to national stability and progress, Oli seeks to position the coalition as a transformative force in Nepal’s political landscape. While challenges remain, including differences within the coalition and delays in key appointments, the document reflects a strong resolve to navigate these hurdles in pursuit of a more stable and prosperous future for Nepal.