Has Nepal-India relations soured?

The KP Sharma Oli-led administration is striving to improve its ties with New Delhi but has yet to achieve substantive results. Despite repeated attempts to mend relations, ruling party leaders and foreign policy experts suggest that bilateral relations between Nepal and India may be deteriorating rather than improving. A series of unresolved issues and missteps on both sides seem to have created a widening gulf.

During his earlier tenure and as an aspiring prime minister, Oli believed that the so-called ‘Delhi Durbar’—referring to India's political establishment—was obstructing his political aspirations. However, in a strategic political maneuver, Oli secured the premiership with the support of the Nepali Congress, a traditional ally of India.

Once in office, Oli took a series of initiatives aimed at establishing a cordial relationship with New Delhi. Like many of his predecessors, Oli hoped to receive an immediate invitation for an official visit to India as a gesture of goodwill. However, this invitation never materialized. Reports from Indian media suggest that New Delhi was initially open to welcoming Oli in August or September. However, India later withdrew the invitation, allegedly due to Oli’s insistence on preconditions—specifically, his demand that India announce steps to resolve the ongoing border dispute.

The border dispute, commonly referred to as the “map row,” stems from competing territorial claims over areas such as Kalapani, Limpiyadhura, and Lipulekh. While Oli has consistently advocated for progress on this issue, New Delhi appears reluctant to prioritize it, viewing it as a sensitive topic better deferred. Diplomats note that this impasse has fueled mistrust and contributed to the stagnation of bilateral relations.

A meeting between Prime Minister Oli and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the 79th UN General Assembly in New York was seen as an opportunity to break the ice. However, according to diplomatic insiders, the meeting failed to yield any significant breakthrough. Analysts suggest that this outcome is emblematic of deeper issues in the relationship.

The unresolved border dispute is not the only factor straining ties. Another contentious issue is the fate of the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) report, finalized in 2018. The report, a collaborative effort by experts from both countries, was intended to recommend ways to enhance Nepal-India relations. However, India has shown little interest in accepting or even acknowledging the report, a stance that has frustrated Nepal.

Since becoming prime minister, Oli has repeatedly highlighted the importance of the EPG report in his speeches and public appearances. He has even used public platforms, such as the launch of former Foreign Minister Kamal Thapa’s book on the Indian blockade, to criticize India’s handling of the issue. During the event, Oli remarked, in a satirical tone, that Indian leaders seem too busy to formally receive the report.

This persistence, according to analysts such as Chandra Dev Bhatta, may have further irritated New Delhi. India, for its part, appears to view the EPG report as an unwelcome complication, and this view is shared by several Nepali political parties, including the Nepali Congress, the CPN (Maoist Centre), and Madhes-based parties. Despite this, Oli’s UML continues to push the issue, creating additional friction in bilateral ties.

Adding to the tensions is Nepal’s decision to align with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure development strategy. The agreement, signed under Oli’s leadership, has been a point of contention since its inception. India has long opposed the BRI, citing sovereignty concerns, particularly because certain projects under the initiative traverse disputed territories.

Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba’s recent visit to India seemed aimed at clarifying Nepal’s stance on the BRI. However, her trip failed to achieve its objectives. Indian leaders declined to meet her, reportedly due to either scheduling conflicts or dissatisfaction with her role in supporting the BRI framework agreement. This chilly reception was in stark contrast to her earlier visit in August, during which she was warmly received and even handed over an invitation from Oli to Modi for a visit to Nepal. Modi accepted the invitation but deferred setting a date, suggesting it would be decided through diplomatic channels.

The cooling of ties is not limited to Oli’s government. A senior Nepali Congress leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that even the relationship between the NC and India has soured. According to the leader, India was displeased with the NC for forming a coalition government with the UML. Additionally, India reportedly disapproved of the NC-led government’s decision to sign the BRI agreement with China.

Despite these challenges, certain aspects of Nepal-India relations remain functional. Bilateral mechanisms continue to operate, with regular meetings and consultations taking place. Nepali ministers frequently visit India, and there has been a noticeable strengthening of military ties between the Nepal Army and the Indian Army.

However, a senior Indian academic who closely follows bilateral relations noted that while India remains committed to engaging with the Nepali public, it has grown wary of working with Oli. “Oli’s strategic agreements with China could have implications for India’s security. I don’t foresee a cordial relationship between him and New Delhi in the near future.”

This situation bears similarities to the events of 2020 when the map row first escalated. After a prolonged communication breakdown, India sent Samant Kumar Goel, the chief of its intelligence agency RAW, as a special envoy to meet Oli. The visit facilitated a wide-ranging discussion of bilateral issues and temporarily eased tensions. However, subsequent political instability in Nepal, including Oli’s dissolution of Parliament, derailed progress.

Diplomats and political leaders now suggest that both governments should consider employing a combination of official and back-channel diplomacy to rebuild trust. Despite Oli’s recent efforts to use track two channels to resolve disputes, these initiatives have so far failed to deliver results.

 

For Nepal and India, the path to repairing relations will require addressing both long-standing disputes and emerging challenges. Progress will depend on a willingness to engage in meaningful dialogue and a mutual commitment to preserving and strengthening a historically close relationship that remains vital for both nations.