Nepal-India relations under Oli government

It has been nearly two months since CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli assumed office as prime minister for the fourth time. His first foreign visit will be to New York to attend the 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). While the UNGA is a routine gathering of world leaders, it provides opportunities for Prime Minister Oli to hold significant bilateral meetings on the sidelines, provided the Ministry of Foreign Affairs takes a proactive approach.

Traditionally, Nepal’s prime ministers have commenced their foreign visits with a trip to India, but there are precedents of attending multilateral meetings first. This time, however, Prime Minister Oli has not yet received an invitation from India to visit New Delhi, which deviates from past practices where Nepali prime ministers were invited soon after, or even before, assuming office. Instead, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba has repeatedly stated that preparations for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Nepal are underway. Minister Deuba has already handed over the formal invitation from Prime Minister Oli to Modi.

Unlike his previous tenures, Prime Minister Oli has been relatively quiet about his foreign policy priorities, especially concerning India. Over the last decade, he has been vocal about various unresolved issues with India, and his relations with New Delhi have been strained, particularly after the 2015 blockade. As a result, foreign policy observers are keenly watching how Prime Minister Oli will engage with India this time. There were speculations that New Delhi was not eager to see Oli return as prime minister. However, a noticeable change is that Oli has been less confrontational on contentious issues with India, addressing them more subtly than in the past.

One such issue is the report prepared by the Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG), which Prime Minister Oli has been raising in a more measured tone. The submission of the EPG report appears to be a priority for him in discussions with India. During his official visit to India last year, former prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal chose not to raise the EPG issue, citing concerns that it could disrupt the improving bilateral relationship. Likewise, when Foreign Minister Deuba visited New Delhi recently and met with Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and Prime Minister Modi, the EPG report was not discussed. The EPG was formed in 2016 and completed its work in 2018, with an understanding that the report would be submitted to both prime ministers. However, India has reportedly conveyed through various channels that the EPG matter is closed.

Despite this, Prime Minister Oli continues to publicly highlight the issue. Recently, while unveiling a book by former minister Kamal Thapa, he reiterated that India should accept the EPG report. Similarly, at the launch of another book by Surya Nath Upadhyay, Oli repeated his stance, saying, “We have not had the opportunity to receive and submit the EPG report. There was no delay on Nepal’s side. Perhaps India will find an appropriate time to receive the report.” His repeated statements suggest that the EPG report is a major focus for him in his dealings with India.

The EPG was established by the Oli-led government in 2016, following a four-month-long Indian blockade, with four members from each country. The expert panel was tasked with offering insights on bilateral issues, including revising the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty. While other major parties like the Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Center), and Madhes-based parties have distanced themselves from the EPG issue, the UML continues to push it. Senior UML leader Rajan Bhattarai has also spoken publicly on the matter. In official discussions, representatives from the NC and Maoists tend not to raise the issue, while Madhes-based parties have rejected the report, arguing that it was drafted without their representation. It remains unclear how India will respond if Oli brings up the EPG report in official talks.

On the issue of the border dispute concerning Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura, Oli has been less vocal this time, although he mentioned it in Parliament. In 2020, under Oli’s leadership, Nepal issued a new political map that included these territories. In recent years, both countries have agreed to resolve the matter through diplomatic channels without politicizing it.

Oli has suggested that the issue could be settled through open and candid discussions at the highest political levels, emphasizing the importance of direct dialogue between the two countries. In recent years, top-level talks between Nepal and India have increasingly focused on economic development and partnership. The growing cooperation in power trade is often highlighted as a significant achievement in the bilateral relationship.