Hasina’s fall and future of Bangladesh

The student movement against the 30 percent quota in government jobs for descendants of the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war veterans not only led to the loss of power for Sheikh Hasina, who had stayed in power for 15 consecutive years, but also forced her to flee the country. In an interview with the media, her son suggested that Hasina is unlikely to return to active politics.

Hasina is currently in New Delhi. For Hasina and New Delhi, this is not a new atmosphere, though. During her exile, Hasina had once lived in the Indian capital for six years. The streets of India and the cordial relationship with Indian power centers are not new to her.

India and Bangladesh enjoy the best bilateral relationship in the region—not just between governments, but also between heads of state. It was not long ago that a dispute along nearly 4,000 kilometers of the border area was resolved on the basis of this relationship. Even now, Indian media outlets report that citizens from both countries in border areas freely cross over and indulge in farm work daily. It is, therefore, natural for India to be concerned about and interested in the security sensitivity with Bangladesh. India is reportedly quite sensitive about the political change in Bangladesh. It may not be as easy for India to cooperate with the new government as it was with Hasina’s leadership.

If news reports are anything to go by, India is apprehensive that China might dominate regional geopolitics. Bangladesh has been facing economic difficulties recently. In July, during Hasina’s visit to China, Bangladesh had requested $5bn in loan assistance from China. However, no agreement was reached after China expressed willingness to provide only $1bn. This issue reportedly ended after the foreign ministry of Bangladesh stated that an agreement for $5bn was anticipated, but China only expressed intent to give $1bn.

According to Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s former foreign secretary, who also served as Indian envoy to Bangladesh, the economic situation of Bangladesh has weakened since Covid-19. The unemployment rate in Bangladesh has increased and people are finding it difficult to make ends meet. All this had been creating an atmosphere of anger among the younger generation. Amidst this came the government decision of providing a 30 percent reservation in government jobs. The youngsters took to the streets against the decision. This took a violent turn.

Some argue that regional politics infiltrated the protest. This is because the Supreme Court had already annulled the quota system, and the student movement had subsided. But within a few days, the movement suddenly got stronger and protesters started demanding Hasina’s resignation.

Shringla argues that the protests took a violent turn after the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and extremists like Jamaat-e-Islami, who were waiting for an opportunity, entered the student movement.

The Sonadia Island seaport near Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is said to have strategic significance for India and China. Some argue that the interests of the two regional powerhouses were seen in the project to keep Bangladesh within their sphere of influence and ensure their regional dominance. 

Bangladesh’s relationship with India appears to be more political and strategic than economic, while with China, it is purely economic. Until 2023, China has invested more than $3bn in Bangladesh. China has helped Bangladesh build seven railway lines, 12 highways, 21 bridges and 31 power stations. However, international media outlets have been analyzing that Hasina’s China visit in July didn’t go as Bangladesh had hoped, from the economic perspective. But immediately after that, both India and Bangladesh had responded that Hasina’s state visit to India was quite successful. 

Both India and China have shown interest in the Teesta river project of Bangladesh. However, Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister Hassan Mahmud had made it clear that priority would be given to India’s proposal.

The downfall of pro-India forces in Bangladesh is also seen as a weakness of the Indian government in regional politics. In a discussion on the Indian online media outlet Lallantop, participants argued that the power shift in Bangladesh has weakened India’s influence in the region. They argue that the world powers are aware of the ups and downs in the relationship between Nepal and India since 2015 with exit of Pushpa Kamal Dahal and the rise of Oli, President Muizzu’s stance in the Maldives and India’s withdrawal of military personnel, the end of the Rajapaksa era in Sri Lanka, the end of democratic rule in Myanmar followed by the rise of military rule and China’s silence, the dominance of the Taliban in Afghanistan and China’s support for the Taliban, the relationship between Pakistan and India and the equidistance with the US and Russia that India has been trying to maintain after the Ukraine war. But they may not do anything to immediately provoke India because of the lucrative regional market and the trust in the government led by Narendra Modi.

Discussions have started in India about Hasina’s ouster, particularly regarding the future bilateral relationship. Shashi Tharoor, a leader of the Indian Congress and a member of the Lok Sabha, says: India needs to be alert about possible refugee infiltration from Bangladesh. 

He adds that India will not stand on the side of an unstable and unfriendly neighbor and that it stands and will stand with the citizens of Bangladesh. But India must remain vigilant about India’s security issues, Tharoor says.

India not only has a large investment in Bangladesh but it also provides economic assistance. It knows bad relations could impact India’s investments worth billions of rupees in Bangladesh. Another issue is how China’s relation will be with the new government in Bangladesh. This is because China is the second largest partner of Bangladesh after India. Bangladesh will have to listen to China as much as Hasina listened to India because bilateral relationships are determined by economic activities these days.    

Bangladesh’s regional relations could be different once the new government is formed. This is because Hasina had banned the main opposition party from contesting in the last two elections. After Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh’s President Mohammed Shahabuddin has ordered the release of former Prime Minister and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia. If she leads the government, her policy might be different from Hasina’s. This is because India had remained silent when the western nations raised concerns about the legitimacy of the recent election and the decision to keep Zia in jail. This has created an anti-India atmosphere at the citizen level. At the same time, Bangladesh needs economic assistance. Analyses are also being made that Bangladesh will be forced to silently support that nation that announces economic assistance to it.

Zia became Bangladesh’s first female Prime Minister in 1991 after her husband’s assassination. She is a fierce critic of Hasina. She became Prime Minister for the second time from 2001 to 2006. But in Jan 2007, when elections could not be held due to political violence, the military intervened in Bangladesh and formed an interim government. The interim government sent Khaleda Zia and her two sons to jail on corruption charges. Hasina adopted an even tougher policy toward Zia and her family.

When Zia’s party BNP was in power, India used to be apprehensive about security issues. But Hasina used to address India’s security concerns. It remains to be seen whether the new government will follow India’s security concerns according to the needs of the power blocs or emphasize continuity. It is necessary for not only Bangladesh but also other nations in the region to be aware because when elephants fight it is the grass that suffers.