Out of power, Dahal reaches out to old comrades

Soon after stepping down from power, CPN (Maoist Center) Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal has initiated efforts to engage with fringe communist parties, particularly former Maoist leaders, to strengthen his position in national politics.

It has been observed that Dahal tends to reach out to his former Maoist colleagues, who have formed splinter groups, especially after the major split in the Maoist party in 2012 when senior leader Mohan Baidya established a separate party due to serious ideological differences with Dahal. A few months ago, while still in power, Dahal formed the Samajbadi Manch (Socialist Front), a loose coalition of fringe parties within the government. However, this front remained inactive as Dahal did not perceive any immediate threat to his government after aligning with the CPN-UML four months ago. 

On Tuesday, Dahal convened a meeting that included CPN (Maoist Center), CPN (Unified Socialist), Nepal Communist Party, and Samajbadi Forum. Of these, only the Maoist party led by Dahal and the CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal have a presence in the national parliament. The Nepal-led party had supported Dahal during his vote of confidence in Parliament on Friday. The meeting of the Socialist Front has labeled the NC-UML coalition as opaque and unnatural. The four parties view the NC and UML’s plans to amend the constitution with suspicion, fearing that these two parties might regress from the progressive provisions of the 2015 constitution. Consequently, the four parties have formed a task force to thoroughly study the policies and activities of the newly-formed coalition.

For the first time in 10 years, the Maoist party finds itself in the opposition bench, a position it last occupied in 2014 when the NC and UML formed an alliance to deliver the constitution. Since then, the Maoist party managed to remain in power despite multiple major and minor splits. After the promulgation of the new constitution in 2015, Dahal’s long-time comrade Baburam Bhattarai left the party to form a separate faction. Bhattarai has been a vocal critic of Dahal, unlike other Maoist splinter groups, which still regard Dahal as their leader.

Despite maintaining moderate strength through electoral alliances with the NC and UML, the Maoist party’s influence is waning. Party leaders fear that contesting elections without alliances could further weaken their position in the national parliament.

Numerous Maoist party leaders and cadres, who were excluded from benefits during Dahal’s tenure, believe it is crucial for Dahal to reflect on his past decade in power and work toward strengthening the party organization. The Maoist party is steadily losing public support and organizational strength. Officially, Dahal will not become the main opposition leader as he lacks the requisite 65 seats. However, as the third-largest party in Parliament, the Maoists remain a significant opposition force, supported by the fourth-largest party, Rastriya Swatantra Party, which holds 21 seats in Parliament, alongside other fringe parties.

Dahal, according to close associates, will strive to consolidate his power by uniting various Maoist factions, although a formal unification is unlikely. The potential unification could be influenced by shared concerns over war-era human rights violations if the NC and UML join forces. Whether the new government will prioritize transitional justice issues remains uncertain, but these issues could serve to unite the Maoist factions. 

Additionally, Dahal may reach out to political outfits advocating identity politics. As the NC and UML aim to amend the constitution to alter the current electoral system, Dahal and other identity-based groups are likely to vehemently oppose any such change. Consequently, Dahal is expected to lead a front that staunchly resists any attempt to amend the constitution.