China’s growing clout in Kathmandu

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has seen mixed progress in Nepal since the two countries signed the agreement in 2017. A common narrative suggests that no significant projects have been completed under the BRI framework, leading many foreign policy observers to conclude that China has not succeeded in expanding its influence in Kathmandu, largely due to implicit pressure from the West and India. 

Nevertheless, the implementation of BRI remains a top agenda item in interactions between representatives of the Communist Party of China and Nepal’s political parties, especially the communist ones, which have expressed dissatisfaction over the perceived slow progress.

From the Chinese perspective, several soft and hard projects launched in Nepal fall under the broader BRI framework. However, China is pushing for the implementation of more infrastructure projects, as globally, the BRI is perceived mainly as an infrastructure initiative. 

Beyond BRI, China’s reach and influence in Nepal have significantly expanded across various sectors—from education to security, from village to national levels, and from electric vehicles to airline companies. Recent interactions even include the judiciary and parliament, with notable exchanges of visits between officials from both countries.

In November last year, Nepal’s Chief Justice Bishowambhar Prasad Shrestha visited China, followed by a reciprocal visit this week by Liu Guixian, a senior justice of the Supreme People’s Court of China. Senior leaders from Nepal’s National Assembly and the Speaker of the House of Representatives have also visited China in recent years.

Recent examples of China-Nepal cooperation include Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song’s participation in multiple events. These events illustrate China’s diverse offerings to Nepal, such as organizing the first intra-party school Chinese pop dance competition involving students from 13 primary and secondary schools, and a cardiovascular screening program by specialists from Fuwai Yunnan Hospital, which provided screenings for 4,682 Nepali children diagnosed with congenital cardiovascular disease, offering them free treatment in China.

Additionally, China has resumed the China Higher Level Education Fair, halted for two decades, and Nepal’s colleges and universities are increasingly offering Chinese language courses. The number of scholarships for Nepali students to study in China has also increased, as has the participation of Nepali bureaucrats going to China for education. Beyond education and health, China is also interested in importing Nepali tea, and the two countries are working on petroleum product collaborations. These are just some instances where there is a long list of new areas of collaboration between the two countries. 

For a long time, Western and European countries have been expanding their influence in Nepal through non-governmental organizations. Now Chinese non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are also becoming more active in Nepal. The China Foundation for Rural Development (CFRD), for instance, has been working in the areas of health, education, and other social issues, particularly in the Tarai region. Recently, CFRD provided aid to fire-affected people in the Mahottari district but this is not the first time. CFRD has been providing support in Madhes region since 2015 and it continues to expand. 

China has developed networks and projects to engage with all segments of Nepali society, and Ambassador Song has been instrumental in enhancing bilateral engagement through active social media presence and interactions with media personnel.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha has been a strong supporter of bilateral projects, frequently attending events organized by the Chinese Embassy and other Chinese-funded local organizations. Shrestha is notably the only minister in the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government, who has been consistently pushing for the signing of the BRI implementation plan, which remains pending.

As China aspires to engage more with Nepal, bilateral visits are expanding, with politicians from various levels visiting China. But it is noteworthy that visits by leaders from the Nepali Congress (NC) are fewer compared to those from communist parties. This could be due to fewer invitations from China or a lack of interest from senior NC leaders. Despite this, both Chinese and NC leaders acknowledge the historical role of bilateral relations, often referencing BP Koirala’s contributions from the 1960s.In summary, while progress on the BRI in Nepal may have been slow, overall Chinese engagement in the country has picked up speed, balancing hard and soft power. The Nepal-China border, which had been largely closed since 2015 and further impacted by Covid-19, has recently reopened, facilitating increased movement of people and goods. This week, the two countries are holding their 16th Secretary-level meeting to review the entire bilateral relationship. To measure China's influence in Nepal solely through the BRI lens is to overlook the broader picture.