The fragility of Dahal-led coalition

The current coalition government led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal may not collapse in the near future, though Prime Minister Dahal himself seems less certain. Political analysts and leaders agree that as long as the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, the first and second largest parties respectively, do not join forces to form a new government, Dahal will continue to exploit the situation. However, the complexity of Nepal’s political parties makes it challenging for analysts to make definitive predictions. Few anticipated that Dahal would expel the Nepali Congress from the government on March 4 and ally with his rival, KP Sharma Oli of UML. 

For over a year, Dahal has remained in power somehow, securing the vote of confidence three times, highlighting his government’s fragility. Since the beginning, even Dahal has appeared uncertain about the government’s longevity. He often tells his colleagues that despite predictions he wouldn't last a couple of months, he has managed to stay in power for over a year. His remarks in public also indicate his doubts about the government's survival. There are several factors that are feeding Dahal’s doubt, including the possibility that coalition partners, mainly CPN (Unified Socialist), could withdraw support anytime. 

This uncertainty has also made Dahal desperate to cling on to power. To bolster his position, Dahal facilitated a split in the Janata Samajbadi Party led by Upendra Yadav, creating a new party of seven lawmakers who now support his government. Dahal was worried after reports that Yadav was planning to pull out its support from the coalition and join forces with Congress, the main opposition, in a bid to form a new government.    

Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) has just 32 seats in the House of Representatives, which makes it a distant third largest party after the UML and NC. Yet, Dahal managed to become prime minister after the 2022 general elections, which took much negotiations, political maneuverings, and making and breaking of alliances.    

Dahal’s guile and cunning has kept him at the helm so far, but he has yet to (and he may never) shake off the specter of one of the coalition partners turning against him, reducing his government into a minority status.  

With Yadav’s Janata Samajbadi Party out of the picture, Prime Minister Dahal is now concerned that CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal might withdraw support to the coalition due to his growing closeness with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba. While this might not immediately topple the government, it would definitely force Dahal to reaffirm his majority, further weakening his political standing. Additionally, Rastriya Swatantra Party Chair Rabi Lamichhane, also the minister for home affairs, faces the allegation of embezzling cooperative funds, and Dahal fears a court order might force Lamichhane to resign, prompting RSP to leave the government.

Political parties have finally agreed to form a parliamentary committee to probe the misuse of funds by multiple cooperatives across the country. Had Lamichhane’s name been included in the probe committee’s terms of reference, he might have resigned. But to prevent this, Prime Minister Dahal successfully convinced NC President Deuba to adopt a more flexible stance. It was NC that first raised the demand for a parliamentary panel to probe the financial scandals in various cooperatives, including the one linked with Home Minister Lamichhane.  

Dahal’s visit to Deuba’s residence before the budget session suggests a possible agreement between the two leaders. After forming a new  ruling coalition in March by breaking the alliance with the Congress, Dahal feels external forces might attempt to remove him from power. This explains his attempt at appeasing India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which is likely to get a historic third term as several exit polls indicate.

After parting ways with the NC, Dahal has faced increasing difficulties. Relegated to the opposition bench, the NC has been creating obstacles in the Parliament and has even initiated street protests, aiming to topple the government. There are also reports about the NC holding back-channel negotiations with the UML to form a new coalition, the one that is stable and strong.   

Within the UML, opinions are divided: some leaders believe a coalition with NC would ensure stability, while others argue that as key electoral competitors, the two parties should not ally. Nonetheless, it won’t be surprising if they come together. Some NC leaders want to join the government, fearing that the current home administration under Lamichhane might target them in corruption scandals.

At this juncture, it is difficult to gauge Oli's intentions. The UML leader has been saying that the internal and external environment is not conducive for him to become prime minister, which is why he is currently supporting Dahal and focusing on strengthening his party. 

Oli aims to make UML the largest party by inducting lawmakers from fringe parties. But at the same time he has not completely ruled out the possibility of forming an alliance with the Congress. Some leaders say Oli’s preferred option is to ally with the Maoists and ultimately seek to merge the two parties, with UML leaders in dominant positions. Oli might even try to secure the position of president after the 2027 elections, while his current targets remain NC and RSP, seeing the former as a key electoral competitor and the latter as a formidable threat to all major parties. 

 

With both ruling and opposition parties expending significant energy either to maintain or disrupt the coalition, governance, economy, and development are taking a hit.