By-elections’ message

The CPN-UML has decisively won the recent by-elections in Ilam-2 for the House of Representatives and Bajhang (A) for Sudurpashchim Provincial Assembly, signaling a significant shift in political dynamics.

In Ilam-2, Suhang Nembang secured an impressive victory with 27,772 votes, surpassing his closest rival Dambar Bahadur Khadka from the Nepali Congress who garnered 21,942 votes. Similarly, in Bajhang (A), Daman Bahadur Bhandari clinched a narrow win over NC’s Abhishek Bahadur Singh with a margin of just 267 votes.

Prior to the elections, uncertainties loomed due to internal divisions within both the NC and UML, as well as the emergence of the Rastriya Swatantra Party, which had shown considerable strength in previous by-elections in Tanahun and Chitwan. However, the latest by-election results underscore the UML’s successful efforts to fortify its organizational structure, reflecting positively on its strategies.

Since the 2022 general elections, the UML has been actively engaging with the public through initiatives like Mission Grassroots and Sankalpa Yatra, demonstrating a commitment to connect with constituents at all levels. Senior UML figures attribute their recent victories to adept management of internal discord in Ilam and Bajhang.

“We are encouraged by the by-elections results. The results show that the party has succeeded in managing the intra-party rift both in Ilam and Bhajang,” a senior UML leader said.  

The UML’s unveiling of the Mission ‘84 campaign, aimed at the 2027 general elections, indicates a strategic push to ascend as the leading political force. The outcomes of the Ilam-2 and Bajhang (A) by-elections hint at a potential shift in power dynamics, with the UML poised to challenge the NC’s dominance.

Conversely, the NC faces a significant setback in the aftermath of the recent by-elections, echoing previous defeats to the RSP in Tanahu and Chitwan. Meanwhile, the erosion of voter support, exemplified by a substantial decline in votes for both the NC and UML in Ilam, underscores the urgent need for both parties to reassess their strategies.

The overall votes of both UML and NC have gone down in Ilam. In the 2022 general elections, the UML candidate Subas Chandra Nembang had secured 30,020 votes, while the NC’s Dambar Bahadur Khadka had garnered 29,006 votes. In the latest by-election, the UML candidate secured around 2,000 fewer votes than last time and the NC lost around 7,000 votes. 

Losing around 7,000 voters should be a matter of grave concern for the NC, but the party leadership seems unfazed.

The rise of identity politics, particularly evident in Ilam’s electoral landscape, presents a formidable challenge to traditional parties like the NC and UML. Independent candidate Dakendra Singh Limbu’s robust performance underscores the resonance of identity-based narratives, posing a challenge for established parties.

Whether they believe it or not, despite UML’s victory in the recent by-elections, major political parties face serious challenges in the coming days. A key challenge for the established old parties is to retain their cadres and supporters.

And while the RSP candidate did not put on a strong electoral show, the party’s rising popularity, especially among young voters, cannot be discounted when Nepal goes to general elections in 2027.  

Looking ahead, both the NC and UML confront an uphill challenge of retaining their support base amidst the emergence of new political forces like the RSP. The need for organizational rejuvenation, coupled with a shift toward younger, more dynamic leadership, emerges as a critical imperative for both parties.

It could be argued that Suhang Nembang won the by-election in Ilam-2 due to the sympathy vote following the death of his father and former UML Vice-chairperson Subas Chandra Nembang. But the party, unlike the NC, has at least realized that there are problems within the party organization and that support base is dwindling. The party is willing to put in the hard work necessary to retain its cadres and voters. 

For the NC, the latest by-election results once again send a clear message that the party needs to wake up and  work hard to strengthen its organizational strength, resolve the intra-party rift, and pick young and fresh candidates. It is no more business as usual.