Why does a by-election matter for national politics?

As by-elections draw closer in Ilam-2 for House of Representatives (HoR) and in Bhajang-2 for Sudurpaschim Provincial Assembly, major parties have expedited their election campaigns and top leaders are preparing to reach the constituencies to back their candidates.

This will be the second by-elections since the 2022 national elections in which the Nepali Congress emerged as the largest party while the CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) polled in second and third respectively. However, the most talked about outcome of the election was the emergence of the newly formed Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) as the fourth largest party.

In the first by-election held in Tanahu and Chitwan in 2023, RSP candidates Swarnim Wagle and Rabi Lamichhane both registered thumping victories against the candidates fielded by major parties. So winning the Ilam-2 by-election—and winning it with a big margin—has  become a prestige issue for major parties. And it is not just prestige that is on the line for them. If the RSP candidate were to win in Ilam-2, it could very well mean game over for the big parties. 

The RSP is already popular among a large section of young urban Nepalis. If the party wins the Ilam-2 constituency, some Nepali Congress (NC) leaders say it could disrupt the voting pattern in the rest of the country in future elections. In other words, there is a high likelihood of RSP emerging as a major—if not the largest—political entity in Nepal come the next general election of 2027.

To stop the RSP, the two ruling parties UML and Maoist have forged an electoral alliance in Ilam-2. They have fielded the UML candidate, Suhang Nembang, son of late UML Vice-chairman Subas Chandra Nembang. Another ruling coalition partner, CPN (Unified Socialist), has refused to support Nembang and has come up with its own candidates. The main opposition, NC, has also fielded its own candidate in the fray.  

Cross-party leaders who just returned from Ilam predict that it is going to be a tight electoral race. 

 “There are intra-party rifts within both NC and UML, and as the voting day nears, it remains to be seen how these intra-party rifts will be managed,” says Nain Singh Mahar, a NC leader who recently visited Ilam. 

A large chunk of UML cadres are unhappy with the candidate selection in Ilam-2, stating that those who had been working for the party for a long time were sidelined. They argue that Suhang may very well be the son of a senior party leader who contested and won many elections from Ilam-2, but he doesn’t know anything about the constituency he represents. 

The Ilam-2 constituency became vacant following the death of UML Vice-chair Subas Chandra Nembang, in September last year. A total of 19 candidates—12 from different political parties and seven independents—are contesting in the by-election. 

The main contest is expected to be among UML’s Suhang Nembang, NC’s Dambar Bahadur Khadka, RSP’s Milan Limbu, and independent candidate Dakendra Singh Limbu Thegim.

Suhang has the support of the UML, Maoist Center and the Nepal Communist Party led by Netra Bikram Chand (Biplav). He has been appealing to the voters to write down their needs, problems, and aspirations on paper, assuring that he and his party will fulfill them.

Meanwhile NC’s Khadka, who was edged by Subash Chandra Nembang with just 114 votes in the last general election, hopes to win this time. But in 2022, he had received votes from various coalition partners, including the Maoist Center. 

This time the Maoist party is supporting UML’s Suhang. UML and Maoist Center have signed a five-point agreement at the Koshi Province level to secure Suhang's victory. As per the agreement, the by-polls will be a stepping stone for cooperation among left forces to create a foundation for party unification in the future.

However, local UML leaders fear that all Maoist votes may not be transferred to Suhang. Also, there are fears that RSP candidate Milan Limbu, who was earlier with the Maoist Center, will get substantial Maoist votes. 

Some Maoist leaders say about a third of the party’s vote could go to RSP’s Limbu. Although traditional parties have been the major players in Ilam-2, Limbu expects a miraculous vote shift in his favor this time. RSP had received 4,686 proportional representation votes and 1,380 direct votes in 2022.

Independent candidate Dakendra Singh Limbu Thegim also hopes to pull off a surprise electoral victory from Ilam-2, with the support of 41 identity-based groups. He has been reaching out to voters with the agenda of strengthening federalism, identity, equal rights, peace, and sustainable development. 

Thegim has the support of Janata Samajbadi Party as well as identity-based parties like the Rastriya Janamukti Party, Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch, Nepal Samajbadi Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party, and Kirat Yakthung Chumlung, Kirat Rai Yayokha, and social organizations, including the Kirat religious guru Atmananda Lingden.

Apart from these four candidates, Jit Bahadur Rai of CPN (Unified Socialist), Lakshmi Gurung of Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Prem Kumar Thamsuhang of the Janmat Party, Shyam Bahadur Darji of the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, Min Bahadur Limbu of Mongol National Organization, Dhanraj Rana Magar of the National Republic Nepal, Jayant Bikram Shah of the Rastriya Mukti Andolan Nepal, and Ganesh Bahadur Chauhan from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, among others, are in the fray. 

Independent candidates Dak Prasad Gautam, Manoj Niroula, Arjun Kumar Shahi, Dipesh Bohra, Yogendra Gurung, and Raj Basyal are also contesting the election. The constituency comprises all of Chulachuli, Mangsebung and Phakphokthum rural municipalities, as well as parts of Ilam (excluding 10 wards), Deumai, and Mai municipalities. There are 115,342 voters in the constituency