Foreign policy priorities of new coalition

The five-party ruling coalition has formed a 10-member task force to prepare a Common Minimum Program (CMP) of the government. Along with domestic issues, the task force will also outline the foreign policy priorities of the new government.

The latest coalition has four communist parties—CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Center), CPN (Unified Socialist), and Janata Samajbadi Party—and one centrist party, Rastriya Swatantra Party. Before the Unified Socialist entered the coalition, the four parties had signed an eight-point deal where they had made a brief mention about the government’s foreign policy. They pledged to ensure “a balanced and extended international relations, keeping national interests and priority at the forefront.”

The UML, Maoist, Unified Socialist, and Janata Samajbadi have almost similar views on foreign policy, while the RSP, a new party that emerged through the 2022 general elections, has no clear foreign policy outlook as of yet. 

Whenever the government in Nepal is overwhelmed by communist parties, the international community, particularly India and western democracies, keenly watch the priorities and approach of Kathmandu. As a result, the communist government always has to go the extra mile to win the trust of democratic world. China, on the other hand, feels comfortable when there is a strong communist government in Nepal. 

So building trust with major powers will be crucial for the government of Pushpa Kamal Dahal. 

Except for China, no countries have officially reacted to the formation of the new coalition. On March 5, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said: “China has been informed about the formation of a new power equation and the reorganization of the cabinet in Nepal. We hope that the relevant parties of the alliance will unite and advance the work of forming a new government and bring about political stability, economic growth and improvement in the people’s livelihoods.”

After the Cabinet reshuffle in Kathmandu, major countries—the US, China, India, and the UK— have met Foreign Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Finance Minister Barsha Man Pun. Unlike in the previous Cabinet, the two key ministries are now led by the Maoist party. Earlier, both ministries were headed by the Nepali Congress, and Prime Minister Dahal was unhappy with the working ways of the Congress ministers. 

The prime minister expects to bring some sort of uniformity in both foreign policy and economic fronts by appointing Maoist ministers. But it may take some time to identify the foreign policy and economic priorities of the new coalition. 

After taking a vote of confidence on March 13, Prime Minister Dahal plans to brief the international community about his foreign policy priorities. The prime minister’s secretariat has already been reaching out to major embassies in Kathmandu to assure that the new alliance will  maintain cordial ties with all countries. 

For Dahal, taking the international community into confidence is crucial ahead of the investment summit. 

In its CMP in 2022, the coalition of these same parties had outlined the foreign policy priorities. Its major points included protecting the country’s national independence and national interests, ensuring the rights of land-locked countries, and a relationship based on equality between big and small countries. It also talked about enhancing the policy of non-interference in internal affairs of other countries, adopting the UN Charter, Panchsheel, non-alignment, world peace and operating international relations based on the international laws. On the neighbors front, the 2022 CMP pledged to maintain “a friendly relationship with neighbors and all friendly nations for peace, stability, economic reformation and the people’s prosperity” based on mutual benefits and welfare.

The new CMP is unlikely to come up with any concrete or new points to provide guidelines for the new coalition. In the past, Prime Minister Dahal had tried to skip the contentious issues with major powers to focus on development and economic partnership. This led the main opposition at the time, CPN-UML, to blame the Dahal government for giving less priority to the relationship with China.  

Now the UML has become a key coalition partner in the Dahal-led government, and it will be interesting to see how the Maoists and UML will reconcile their differences. 

NP Saud, the former foreign minister from the Nepali Congress, says Nepal’s foreign policy is based on non-alignment and UN charter but in practice the country needs to make cordial ties with immediate neighbors India and China and other major countries.  

“Under my leadership, we have been successful in creating an environment of trust with both neighbors and other big powers. We signed energy trade cooperation with India which is instrumental to bring foreign investment in Nepal’s hydropower and other areas.” 

He adds that the previous coalition government also convinced the US and other western powers to make investment in Nepal, while the relationship with China was also moving in a positive direction. 

“There is an opportunity for this coalition government to bring in huge investments from the US and the UK. It will be a wise idea for the new coalition to follow the path that we have created in the last one year,” suggests Saud.

Dr. Nihar R. Nayak, research fellow with India’s think tank MP-IDSA, says given Nepal’s geostrategic location, Nepal does not have leverage to bring about strong changes in the conduct of foreign policy irrespective of which party comes into the power. 

“The policy of neutrality, Panchansheel,  non-alignment and not to join any military alliances are the key issues that the new coalition is likely to reiterate while conducting the foreign policy. The new coalition I think will try to keep a cordial relationship with neighbors and other powers such as the US, the UK, Japan, South Korea and other key development partners.” 

In China, Nihar predicts that there could be some progress on the BRI projects as both China and the left government want to move ahead with it. 

“China is likely to adopt some sort of flexibility in the negotiations with BRI such as concessional loans and other issues. 

In India, Nihar says, “there will not be any major changes and the current government is unlikely to raise any sensitive issues.”