Closer China-India ties: A global game changer

The post-Cold War unipolar world has been shaken badly by the 9/11 attacks and the war on terrorism that followed achieved partial success leading to the compulsive pullout of the US forces from Afghanistan. The relationship between the US and China remained strained due to the trade war and the conflicting interests over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war does not see any prospects of settlement soon, thus Ukraine is bound to suffer and face more destruction. Strategic mistakes were made by both Russia and Ukraine, but NATO gained valuable intelligence about the Russian war capability. African countries have been facing civil wars leading to major humanitarian crises and military coups in some of these countries signal no good days on the horizon. The ever-changing geo-political dynamics of this century are thus becoming more challenging.

Asia seems relatively quiet and peaceful because many of the volatile areas and issues have been back burnered. In spite of several border skirmishes, India-China trade continues to boom. The cross-border terrorist activities in Kashmir and the long outstanding border issues of India with both China and Pakistan have led to a strained relationship between them. The existing deadlock is not likely to be resolved soon, thus making the Himalayan region a flashpoint for potential conflicts which may even push the three nuclear nations to a war.

Now, is there any possibility to avoid or at least mitigate such a scenario? The answer would be both ‘Yes’ and ‘No’. China has an all-weather good relationship with Pakistan whereas it remains only fair weather with India; and looking back to their historical enmity and existing animosity the answer most likely would be a ‘No’. However, this projection based mainly on their geopolitical and strategic perspectives may not be that accurate if the perceived notion is examined from the economic perspective. A million-dollar question thus would be—what are such possibilities?

National aspirations

India and China both have their own national aspirations. India wants to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and become a superpower over time. India qualifies for this because of her economic and technological advancement. China wants to expand its influence globally through the Bridge and Road Initiative (BRI) and become the first economic power well before the mid-21st century. This entails keeping herself safe against containment from superpowers and avoiding direct conflicts. These national aspirations could be the motivating and driving factors for both India and China to come closer. 

International financial institutions have projected that the 21st century will be the Asian century. The Chinese and Indian economies have already left the US economy behind in terms of their Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), nevertheless, the USA is still the number one in both economic and military power and will remain so for some time to come.  However, China and India are likely to supersede the US economy soon. Besides, the US economy would be affected by the de-dollarization initiative and the possible introduction of BRICS currency. Now, what happens if India and China closely cooperate and collaborate for larger economic interests and ally together for the realization of their national aspirations? If this materializes, the realization of the 21st century as the Asian century will happen earlier. India and China together will be the biggest economic and military power in the world and will be in the position to dictate global terms, thus ending the era of a unipolar world. 

Here, a hypothesis ‘the Western world would neither allow China and India to ally nor would they allow them to go to a war’, could be put to test. If they ally, they together will dominate the world and if they go to war, the possibility of a nuclear conflict cannot be denied; and both scenarios will be inconsistent with the interest of the Western power.

In the present scenario, could India ever become a permanent member of the UNSC? Will the best diplomatic and calculated strategic relationship with the USA help India realize her national aspiration? The existing defense dependency on Russian military hardware (more than 70 percent) and the relationship persisting since the Cold War period would not allow India to deviate from its basic strategic line for some time. Since Russia and China are strategically close and aligned, aligning with these two superpowers is likely to help India realize its national aspiration, which is unlikely by a piggyback from the USA. 

Therefore, the national aspirations and huge economic interest are likely to outweigh the military interest and competition, thus encouraging China and India to come closer. Through such cooperation and collaboration, the BRI gets the opportunity to access the Indian and South Asia markets which would, amongst other advantages, help China for the realization of its national aspiration.

Now a million-dollar question arises: Who would or can make this happen? Obviously, this will not happen on its own and some country or statesman has to take initiatives to facilitate the process. Here comes the possible role of Nepal and some of its acceptable statesmen who could lead a Track-II initiative. Nepal could play the role of a lynchpin between India and China. The BRI could be made a tool and the BRI passing through Nepal would bring India and China closer to materializing their national aspirations. The contentious issue between India and Pakistan would become a non-issue once China and India align; many of the outstanding and contentious issues between the three countries would fall in place through an amicable way out. The end result would be the peace that would prevail in the volatile South Asian Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya region as a whole.

In linear thinking, this proposal not only looks like wishful thinking but an absurd one. The issues are not as simple as debated above but also are not unachievable. Since most complicated issues generally have simple solutions, so could this be. The matching chemistry between the present leaderships of China and India could be an opportunity for turning this thinking into reality.

The author is Brig Gen (Retd) of Nepali Army and General Secretary of the Nepal Institute for Strategic Studies