Keshar Bahadur Bhandari: National Security Blueprint of Nepal
Brigadier General (Rtd) Keshar Bahadur Bhandari, PhD, is a defense and security analyst. He is credited for drafting the first national security policy document of Nepal. He also served as a military advisor to the UN mission in Afghanistan and Pakistan. His recent book ‘National Security and the State–A Focus on Nepal’ was published in 2022.
Given the existing multifaceted national security scenario, one can assess that Nepal is at a crossroads; if not salvaged on time, the nation is likely to face challenges to its very existence. These multidimensional challenges could come in many forms and from different fronts. Bhandari presents a 10-point insider regarding national security.
Challenges
The glaring incompetence in the management of state affairs has led to a serious deficit in good governance. Rampant corruption and economic insecurity have emerged as major national concerns. The political landscape is marred by a lack of adherence to democratic principles, constitutional protection, and proper state management based on constitutional guidelines. Moreover, there are pressing challenges related to the protection and preservation of national history, traditions, culture, religion, language, education, and social values. The nation grapples with foreign influence and passive interventions that compromise established good practices in state affairs and national values. Additionally, the risk of transforming from a young nation to an old one with projected liabilities looms large, further exacerbating the precarious situation.
All these added together develop a threat to national existence which is not yet perceived by the establishments. Nepal can learn the priority of existence from Israel.
Completion of NSP
There is a pressing need to review the existing law, policies, and rules and regulations related to every aspect of the National Security Policy (NSP), so that it can be implemented. An unimplementable NSP is just a dumb piece of paper as it is now. That is why we need to reform, refine, modify, and add new inputs to complete the NSP.
To fortify national security and streamline decision-making processes, it is also imperative to empower the National Security Council (NSC) with executive authority in critical matters of national interest. This would involve appointing the National Security Advisor (NSA) as the member secretary of the NSC, thereby making them the primary security advisor to the executive head. To ensure the prominence of the NSA’s role, a protocol should be established designating them as a senior minister.
Furthermore, the NSA would be entrusted with the responsibility of leading the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS), which would serve as an oversight body for the coordination and implementation of the NSP across various ministries and departments.
Balanced foreign policy
To salvage the nation from single-country dependency and dominance, it is crucial to cultivate amicable relations with larger neighbors while safeguarding national interests. Simultaneously, seizing the opportunity presented by UN peace efforts is essential.
Aggressive participation and diplomatic engagement at the UN headquarters can provide the nation with leverage, allowing it to articulate and protect its interests on the global stage.
We must also adopt specific and separate policies for our neighbors, and country-specific policies with the rest of the world based on the non-aligned policy.
‘Reengineering’ the state system
Nepal’s state management system has gone beyond the point of being reformed and restructured. Trying to reform and restructure the system cannot bring the country back on track. Before things turn worse, we must ‘reengineer’ the state management system to bring the nation back on a proper track. Sooner we realize this need and take action, the better it will be for the nation.
Potent deterrence
Nepal must develop a potent deterrence capability in areas of core security—effective strike back and counter terrorist capability (Special Force, Rangers, Anti terrorist force), and develop effective intelligence, legal system, laws and order capability, public awareness, and response mechanism. Through credible deterrence capability, we can win the confidence of our neighbors by assuring them that no harm will ever come from Nepal’s soil to their national interest. Thus it is crucial for Nepal to build credible deterrence armor and diplomatic armor to earn the trust of our neighbors.
New dimension on security thinking
The Himalayan/Trans-Himalayan region and South Asia as a whole is a volatile geography of the world. India, a rising global military and economic power, harbors enmity with China, another super power and economic power, and they have gone to war in the past. The pre-existing negativity and historical enmity between India and Pakistan have become a festering non-healing problem, and they have fought several wars in the past. The border disputes of India with China and Pakistan have become a non-resolvable chronic problem and border skirmishes and stalemates have become a regular feature. These issues have made the region volatile, thus making South Asia an unsecure region.
To resolve acute security problems for good, some bigger initiative is required to bring India and China closer, so that they can work together to achieve their national aspirations and other greater interests. The national aspiration of India is to become a super power and become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The national aspiration of China is to expand its economic power unresisted world over, become secured from containment efforts of the US and the Western powers, and take Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connectivity to India’s market through Nepal.
China and India are the second and fifth largest economies and third and fourth powerful countries by military strength rankings in the world. Therefore, their aspiration is not unjust.
In the 21st century, economic considerations are poised to take precedence over defense and other geopolitical issues. The prioritization of economic interests is seen as a deterrent to engaging in warfare, as nations recognize the interconnectedness of global economies. Defense and economy are expected to be complementary rather than conflicting priorities.
A significant shift in global dynamics could occur if China and India collaborate and align their interests, potentially becoming the largest economy and military power globally. This alliance could expedite the realization of the Asian Century, where Asia, driven by the economic and military prowess of China and India, could exert substantial influence and even dictate global affairs.
In this envisioned new world order, India’s aspiration to become a Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) may find greater feasibility by aligning with China, rather than relying on the support of the US. Given Russia’s proximity to both China and India, such alignment could provide India with increased leverage in achieving its national aspirations on the global stage.
China and India
Nepal has the best of the relationship with both its neighbors, India and China. Like a small lynchpin could couple two big machines to generate heavy power, Nepal can play a role and act as a lynchpin between India and China to bring them closer and ally them together for bigger economic and national interests. Nepal could take initiative for a 50 years of Tri-party ‘Peace and Friendship Agreement’ between India-Nepal-China; and if it happens, it will bring a strategic paradigm shift in the global history. In this scenario, India and China will be at the center stage of making global decisions.
The problem between India and Pakistan will become a none-issue because of the China factor, and the enmity between them will die down. This will make the volatile Himalayan region and the whole of South Asia safe, establishing a stable regional peace. This will expedite the “21st Century becoming Asian Century”. Nepal as well as all of the South Asian nations will benefit and prosper from the unfathomable economic development.
The catch point
Hypothetically, the US and Western powers would neither allow China and India to align and cooperate, nor would they let the two nations go to war. If China and India were to align and cooperate, they together would become the world’s first economy and military power, and would dictate the global term which would be against the interest of the West. And if they were to go to war, both being nuclear states, it may trigger a greater war if not world war. The possible use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons cannot be denied—which again the West will not allow this to happen.
Because of their geo-politics and domestic political compulsion, India and China by themselves cannot take such initiative on their own, despite knowing its great benefit. Therefore, some acceptable third party is required to take such an initiative. Nepal is best suited for this role.
Doable
Nepal should take initiatives like ‘Track One and a Half Diplomacy’ and ‘Track II Diplomacy’ followed by ‘Track I initiative’ in sideline meetings in opportune time. For this, some acceptable group of people or the most acceptable trusted individual by both the countries would be suitable. Political parties may create such groups of people. Regarding an individual of credible national stature, no one would be better and suitable than the erstwhile king Gyanendra Shah. The establishment can nominate him giving such a mandate, or he himself can take such an initiative.
Conclusion
If the above hypothesis could be proved wrong by making the tri-party agreement happen, which is feasible and very tempting—the game is won. Therefore, Nepal has to think big and act big and try to make it happen. Maybe Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, in their first thought, could be reluctant to make it happen. On this, they may have to take risks in their domestic politics, but also have the opportunity to make history.
Closer China-India ties: A global game changer
The post-Cold War unipolar world has been shaken badly by the 9/11 attacks and the war on terrorism that followed achieved partial success leading to the compulsive pullout of the US forces from Afghanistan. The relationship between the US and China remained strained due to the trade war and the conflicting interests over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war does not see any prospects of settlement soon, thus Ukraine is bound to suffer and face more destruction. Strategic mistakes were made by both Russia and Ukraine, but NATO gained valuable intelligence about the Russian war capability. African countries have been facing civil wars leading to major humanitarian crises and military coups in some of these countries signal no good days on the horizon. The ever-changing geo-political dynamics of this century are thus becoming more challenging.
Asia seems relatively quiet and peaceful because many of the volatile areas and issues have been back burnered. In spite of several border skirmishes, India-China trade continues to boom. The cross-border terrorist activities in Kashmir and the long outstanding border issues of India with both China and Pakistan have led to a strained relationship between them. The existing deadlock is not likely to be resolved soon, thus making the Himalayan region a flashpoint for potential conflicts which may even push the three nuclear nations to a war.
Now, is there any possibility to avoid or at least mitigate such a scenario? The answer would be both ‘Yes’ and ‘No’. China has an all-weather good relationship with Pakistan whereas it remains only fair weather with India; and looking back to their historical enmity and existing animosity the answer most likely would be a ‘No’. However, this projection based mainly on their geopolitical and strategic perspectives may not be that accurate if the perceived notion is examined from the economic perspective. A million-dollar question thus would be—what are such possibilities?
National aspirations
India and China both have their own national aspirations. India wants to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and become a superpower over time. India qualifies for this because of her economic and technological advancement. China wants to expand its influence globally through the Bridge and Road Initiative (BRI) and become the first economic power well before the mid-21st century. This entails keeping herself safe against containment from superpowers and avoiding direct conflicts. These national aspirations could be the motivating and driving factors for both India and China to come closer.
International financial institutions have projected that the 21st century will be the Asian century. The Chinese and Indian economies have already left the US economy behind in terms of their Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), nevertheless, the USA is still the number one in both economic and military power and will remain so for some time to come. However, China and India are likely to supersede the US economy soon. Besides, the US economy would be affected by the de-dollarization initiative and the possible introduction of BRICS currency. Now, what happens if India and China closely cooperate and collaborate for larger economic interests and ally together for the realization of their national aspirations? If this materializes, the realization of the 21st century as the Asian century will happen earlier. India and China together will be the biggest economic and military power in the world and will be in the position to dictate global terms, thus ending the era of a unipolar world.
Here, a hypothesis ‘the Western world would neither allow China and India to ally nor would they allow them to go to a war’, could be put to test. If they ally, they together will dominate the world and if they go to war, the possibility of a nuclear conflict cannot be denied; and both scenarios will be inconsistent with the interest of the Western power.
In the present scenario, could India ever become a permanent member of the UNSC? Will the best diplomatic and calculated strategic relationship with the USA help India realize her national aspiration? The existing defense dependency on Russian military hardware (more than 70 percent) and the relationship persisting since the Cold War period would not allow India to deviate from its basic strategic line for some time. Since Russia and China are strategically close and aligned, aligning with these two superpowers is likely to help India realize its national aspiration, which is unlikely by a piggyback from the USA.
Therefore, the national aspirations and huge economic interest are likely to outweigh the military interest and competition, thus encouraging China and India to come closer. Through such cooperation and collaboration, the BRI gets the opportunity to access the Indian and South Asia markets which would, amongst other advantages, help China for the realization of its national aspiration.
Now a million-dollar question arises: Who would or can make this happen? Obviously, this will not happen on its own and some country or statesman has to take initiatives to facilitate the process. Here comes the possible role of Nepal and some of its acceptable statesmen who could lead a Track-II initiative. Nepal could play the role of a lynchpin between India and China. The BRI could be made a tool and the BRI passing through Nepal would bring India and China closer to materializing their national aspirations. The contentious issue between India and Pakistan would become a non-issue once China and India align; many of the outstanding and contentious issues between the three countries would fall in place through an amicable way out. The end result would be the peace that would prevail in the volatile South Asian Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya region as a whole.
In linear thinking, this proposal not only looks like wishful thinking but an absurd one. The issues are not as simple as debated above but also are not unachievable. Since most complicated issues generally have simple solutions, so could this be. The matching chemistry between the present leaderships of China and India could be an opportunity for turning this thinking into reality.
The author is Brig Gen (Retd) of Nepali Army and General Secretary of the Nepal Institute for Strategic Studies