Is ‘left unity’ on the card?

There are no immediate threats to undo the current coalition government led by the CPN (Maoist Center). At least, that’s what Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner, Sher Bahadur Deuba, of the Nepali Congress have been trying to convince the people. But if one considers the recent formation of the so-called socialist front of the Maoist party and fringe communist forces, talk about the government change made by some NC leaders, and the second-rung leaders of the NC and the UML exploring the possibility of collaboration, it is hard to buy into Prime Minister Dahal and NC President Deuba’s assurance of a stable government. Some leaders in the NC and the UML say that the two parties must come together for the guarantee of political stability for at least another general election. UML leader Gokul Banskota, who is close to the party chairman, KP Oli, has publicly stated that while there cannot be an electoral alliance between the two parties, the UML and NC can form a government to ensure political and economic stability in the country. The UML has historically been the main political rival of the NC, and there are many leaders in both the parties who believe that they should always remain apart. But there are plenty of reasons that could bring these two parties together. The main one being the arrests of and allegations against several UML and NC leaders in corruption cases, like the fake Bhutanese refugee scandal and the Lalita Niwas land grab case. The leaderships of both the NC and the UML are not pleased with the Home Ministry, led by the Maoist party, opening investigations into corruption cases involving high-profile individuals. NC President Deuba, a key partner in the ruling coalition, has so far remained silent regarding government change, but people close to him say that he is not pleased with the Dahal administration, particularly regarding the way the refugee scandal is being pursued by the Home Ministry. The UML is keen to enter serious negotiations with the NC for the formation of a new government without the Maoist Center. But NC leader Min Bahadur Bishwakarma says that the party is committed to keeping the coalition intact. On Sunday, UML Chairman Oli said that there has not been any substantial discussions regarding the formation of a new coalition because the NC was fearful. But, Deuba’s non-committal and his apparent willingness to play second fiddle to the Maoist party do not mean that he is playing the safe card. Talks about a broad alliance of left parties are also gaining momentum of late, and it could see both Dahal and Oli together again. It is worth noting here that though Dahal may be leading the current ruling coalition, his party came in third in the last year’s general elections, far behind the NC and UML—and that too despite forming an electoral alliance with the NC and other fringe parties. So, it is very much in the interest of Dahal and his party to form some sort of lasting alliance at the earliest in order to stay relevant. The evolving dynamics inside the NC has also prompted Dahal to find an alternative. The factions led by Gagan Kumar Thapa and Gururaj Ghimire in the NC are already saying that the NC should not forge an alliance with the Maoist party in the next general elections. Besides, Thapa has also been saying that the current ruling alliance could change if the government fails to deliver. These developments have made Prime Minister Dahal suspicious. He may be in favor of giving continuity to the current coalition, as he has been saying publicly, but he is also aware that his party cannot survive if it were to contest the next general elections on its own. In the previous two general elections, the Maoist Center had forged poll alliances with the UML and the NC respectively. For Prime Minister Dahal’s party, the only lifeline is making an alliance with other parties. So, it sees everything through the prism of election. Several leaders in the Maoist party are convinced that the NC is not committed to a long-term collaboration and that the party should start looking for an alternative. This means the party will align with the UML, if it has to. Already, four political parties have formed a socialist alliance, led by the Maoists, with a purpose of expanding it to the grassroots level. Dahal is also in talks with the leader of Maoist splinter groups to bring them back into the party. He is said to be in talks with former Maoists ideologue Baburam Bhattarai,  now of the Nepal Samajbadi Party,  to explore ways to unite. It is said that before talking with Oli, Dahal first wants to solidify his position by bringing all fringe communist parties under one umbrella. The meteoric rise of the Rastriya Swatantra Party has also alarmed the Maoists. If the RSP continues to ride the wave of popularity until the next general elections, it is not just the Maoists that could get an electoral thrashing, the NC and the UML could also lose their political base. This was evident in the by-elections held earlier this year. The formation of a left alliance will no doubt be welcomed by China. Over the past few years, China has been consistently advising Nepal’s left parties to come together. Beijing’s leadership will ask Prime Minister Dahal for the same when he visits China in September.  Until now, Prime Minister Dahal has been shrugging off the talks about the breakup in the Maoist-NC coalition, but he has also not ruled out the possibility of leftist alliance. He said on Monday that the NC should not overreact to the talks about the formation of left unity, as it does not mean disunity in the current ruling coalition. But if Oli’s recent statement is to be believed, the Maoists and the UML could once again unite to form a large communist party, like they did in 2018 with the short-lived Nepal Communist Party (NCP). A few days back, Oli said that there must be a serious review as to why the NCP split. UML leader Amrit Kumar Bohara says there is a sizable communist voter numbers in the country, and their combined strength will not be known for as long as leftist parties in Nepal are scattered. Chairman of CPN (Unified Socialist) Madhav Kumar Nepal, also former leader of the UML, also believes that only a powerful communist party could bring social and economic changes in the country. Maoist lawmaker Madhav Sapkota says while there is no immediate chance of left parties uniting, efforts are definitely underway. He adds the parties are continuing the efforts after learning lessons from the past. Bishwakarma, the NC leader, says unification among communist parties is an agenda that has been discussed for a long time, and that his party will have no issue if the parties of similar ideologies come together. It will not upset the NC as long as it does not affect the current coalition, he adds.