This is a haunting but real prospect, as new forces like the Rastriya Swatantra Party are already threatening the major parties that have hitherto dominated Nepal’s political scene.
But in order to deliver, it is not enough for Dahal to just keep the coalition intact. This much is clear from the events of the past few months. Dahal also needs to maintain a good rapport with the main opposition, CPN-UML, particularly its leader KP Sharma Oli. Again, if we consider the past events, Dahal and Oli cannot work together. If anything, Oli and his party will try to obstruct and oppose the decisions of the Dahal government. Let’s regard two cases: transitional justice bill and appointment process of the Supreme Court chief justice. Prime Minister Dahal wants to fast-track the passage of the bill that aims to amend some clauses on the Enforced Disappearances Inquiry, Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act, 2014. The bill has already been tabled in the House of Representative, which has met with widespread criticisms for its shortcomings. National and international human rights bodies have denounced the bill, stating that it could provide space for blanket amnesty on serious human rights violations committed during the 10-year long insurgency. As of Thursday, 26 lawmakers have already registered their amendment proposal on the controversial bill. The prime minister could ignore the concerns of lawmakers from other parties, but not that of the UML, the second largest party in Parliament. UML Chairman KP Oli has taken a firm position that the bill should be in line with the Supreme Court’s verdict of 2015 and must meet the international standard on transitional justice law. Over the past few weeks, Prime Minister Dahal has held a series of meetings with Oli, but the latter has shown no signs of softening his stance. The UML leader is of the view that the bill should be discussed and revised in the relevant parliamentary committee before its passage, instead of being fast-tracked. Without Oli’s support, Dahal cannot endorse the bill. This means there will be no progress on Nepal’s long overdrawn transitional justice process. Dahal wants to complete the tasks related to transitional justice within the next two years of his premiership, before he steps down as part of the power-sharing deal with his coalition partners. Prime Minister Dahal and Oli also stand divided on the issue related to the appointment of a new chief justice. In the Constitutional Council, which has the mandate of making recommendations for appointments in constitutional bodies, the UML holds the majority. Besides Oli, Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire and National Assembly Chairperson Ganesh Prasad Timalsina, both from the UML, are in the council. So, without support from Oli, Prime Minister Dahal cannot make any appointments in constitutional bodies including the Supreme Court. Oli also enjoys an upper hand over Dahal in both houses of federal parliament, each led by UML candidates. Although the speaker of the House of Representatives and the chairperson of the Upper House are considered neutral posts, they can still work in favor of their respective parties. In fact, two former speakers, Agni Prasad Sapkota and Krishna Bahadur Mahara, have already demonstrated how they can sow partisan division. The relationship between Dahal and Oli is fraught with deep mistrust. They have betrayed each other in the past, and the likelihood of them working together appears very slim. There is no smooth sailing for the prime minister.
