The Swatantra Party and Janamat Party emerged as agents of change and alternative to old parties through the general elections held in November last year. Some political analysts say despite some controversies and hiccups, these two parties still hold a significant influence among the voters.
Major political parties like the Congress and UML, and Yadav’s Samajbadi Party, a dominant political force in the Madhes region, are aware of the immense popularity gained by the upstart political parties. In Bara-2, where the by-election is being held after Ram Sahay Yadav was elected the Vice President, it is a do or die test for Janata Samajbadi leader Yadav, who lost in the last year’s general elections to Janamat Party’s Raut from Saptari-2. Raut, who aspires to become an influential leader from the Madhes region, is trying to defeat Yadav once again. In Tanahun-1 and Chitwan-2, it is the RSP against the NC and UML candidates. The RSP has fielded economist and former Congress member Swarnim Wagle in Tanahun-1. The party chair, Rabi Lamichhane, himself is re-contesting the seat from Chitwan-2, which he had lost over an invalid citizenship case. For the NC, winning the by-election in Tanahun-1, a seat vacated by its leader Ram Chandra Poudel after being elected the country’s President, is a matter of prestige. It has fielded Govinda Bhattarai, a Tanahun resident, against RSP’s Wagle, who hails from Gorkha. Wagle, who once described himself as a lifelong NC supporter, recently severed ties with the party, noting his immense displeasure with the Congress leadership, particularly the party leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, and his wife Arzu Rana Deuba. Within days, he joined the RSP and was named the by-election candidate from Tanahun-1. If Wagle wins the by-election, it will be a serious blow to the NC. Political analyst Puranjan Acharya says Wagle’s win could trigger a departure of many NC supporters, especially the young ones. A cursory look at the social media trends already indicates this possibility. Many Congress sympathizers and cadres are supporting Wagle’s candidacy, and criticizing the Congress leadership for pushing him away. Wagle could very well pull off a victory in Tanahun-1, handing an electoral upset to the NC—and a lesson to the party leadership. For a long time, the Congress party has remained a divided house due to the bitter relationship between its two leaders, President Poudel and Govinda Raj Joshi. Joshi still holds a significant sway among Tanahun voters. Come April 23, approximately 7,000 of his supporters are said to vote for Wagle to defeat NC’s Bhattarai. The nationwide craze behind the RSP could also work in favor of Wagle. In the last year’s general elections, scores of youths studying or working abroad had convinced their parents, grandparents and relatives in Nepal to vote for Ghanti (bell), the election symbol of the RSP. The same scenario could play out in the upcoming by-election. Besides, Wagle holds a dazzling CV and is highly regarded both by a section of the intelligentsia as well as common people, making him a formidable candidate. The UML has fielded former Nepal Police chief Sarbendra Khanal in Tanahun-1, and the party is banking on possible vote splitting between Bhattarai and Wagle to win the constituency. But analysts say it’s a long shot, as scores of UML voters are also showing their support to Wagle. For the RSP, winning the by-election in Tanahun-1 and Chitwan-2 will be gaining a significant vote of confidence from the public. Soon after the party won 20 seats in the lower house of federal parliament, it was caught up in one controversy after another. First, its leader Lamichhane was accused and found guilty by the court for presenting invalid citizenship certificate to contest the polls and lost his positions as the Home Minister and the lawmaker. Following the incident, Lamichhane made several controversial remarks at a press meet against the mainstream media, editors and publishers, and announced to recall its ministers from the government led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Most recently, the RSP was caught up in another controversy, where its lawmaker Dhaka Ram Shrestha was caught on a recorded telephone conversation, soliciting bribes from businessman Durga Prasai. Analysts say the by-election results of Tanahun-1 and Chitwan-2 will show whether the voters are still behind the RSP and behind its charismatic leader, Lamichhane. The victory will also establish the RSP as a clear contender to the traditional political parties, mainly to the NC, the UML and the CPN (Maoist Party), in the next local and parliamentary elections. For Lamichhane, who is once again contesting the by-election from Chitwan-2, securing a back-t0-back victory is highly likely, despite his reputation and popularity taking some beating due to dual citizenship and passport controversy. As for the NC, which emerged as the largest party in parliament in the last year’s general elections, losing the Tanahun and Chitwan constituencies, despite the backing from the Maoists and the CPN (Unified Socialist) voters, could have a psychological impact on the party’s rank and file. A defeat means the party’s political base is eroding. Congress has mobilized its two general secretaries, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwo Prakash Sharma, to rally the voters behind the party. The duo is joined by a bevy of influential party leaders, and they are all trying hard to win the by-election, particularly in Tanahun-1. To this end, they are trying to portray Wagle as someone who betrayed his former party and as an opportunist who joined the RSP to become a parliamentarian. Wagle remains undeterred. Speaking at an election rally on Monday, he claimed that the ruling coalition has set upon him all the political and state mechanisms to beat him in the by-election. Political analyst Acharya says NC President Deuba has made his mission to stop Wagle’s political rise at all cost. If the party loses the by-election, he says it will send out a big tremor inside the Congress and his leadership will have to take the blame for the consequences.
