As a matter of course, ahead of the November polls, Wagle started projecting Thapa as a future prime minister and a statesman. Wagle’s dream of contesting the general election didn’t come true despite Thapa agreeing to surrender Kathmandu-5 constituency to him. Deuba was in favor of granting the election ticket to Nain Singh Mahar and not Wagle.
After being denied the election ticket, Wagle began seeking a vital appointment in a key state institution, but that didn’t happen either. He quit the Nepali Congress in a rather abrupt fashion on March 30, and joined the newly formed Rastriya Swatantra Party. Soon after joining the RSP, he was named the party’s by-election candidate for Tanahun-1, the constituency vacated by President Ram Chandra Poudel after his election. Until a few days back, there was a murmur in the political circle that Thapa was poised to become the finance minister in the Maoist-led coalition government, and his trusty ally, Wagle, would become a de facto finance minister. But overnight they have turned into sworn enemies, or at least acting as such. Thapa seems hell-bent on defeating Wagle in the April 23 by-election. Addressing a by-election campaign rally on Monday, Thapa alleged Wagle of showing petty attitude with his decision to quit the party to contest the election from another party. He also criticized his former friend for joining the Nepali Congress after having held many plum jobs outside and securing a good pension scheme. Thapa’s vitriol against Wagle didn’t go unnoticed. Many people lambasted his remarks on various social media platforms. Kul Chandra Gautam, former senior UN official wrote on Twitter: “Sad to see this uncivil split between Thapa and Wagle. Gagan’s critique of Swarnim is unwarranted and unfair. Swarnim’s critique of Nepali Congress is totally understandable. They may now be in different parties, but wish they continue to collaborate.” The rivalry between Wagle and Thapa has suddenly made the upcoming by-election more interesting, even though the poll results from the three constituencies are not going to impact the government composition or the national politics, for that matter. The by-election is taking place in Bara-2, Tanahun-1 and Chitwan-2. It is set to be a three-way competition between Nepali Congress (coalition), CPN-UML, and RSP. In the November election, the RSP emerged as the fourth largest party, posing a serious challenge to the traditional mainstream parties. And no party will have more to prove in the upcoming by-election than the RSP. Now, let’s talk about the individual constituency and why they matter. In Bara-2, as a common pick of the ruling coalition, Upendra Yadav, also chairman of Janata Samajbadi Forum, is contesting against Purushottam Poudel of the CPN-UML, Shiva Chandra Kusawaha of the Janamat Party, and Ramesh Kharel of the RSP. Winning the by-election is important for Yadav, who lost the November polls to CK Raut in Saptari-2. Raut is rallying his supporters in Bara to defeat Yadav once again. But it is a tough task, as Yadav has the support of Congress and CPN (Maoist Center) behind him. The constituency was vacated after Ram Sahay Yadav was elected the Vice President. In terms of numbers, Yadav’s prospects of winning the elections are high, but doubts linger if the vote transfers will work his way. The outcome of the general election shows that independent candidates are strong in Bara, so it will be premature to predict the winner. But come the voting day on April 23, all eyes are going to be fixed in Tanahun-1, the home constituency vacated by President Poudel, because Wagle will be fighting against the candidates of mainstream parties. President Poudel was elected from the constituency in the general election with 25,313 votes, defeating his closest rival from the UML, Ek Bahadur Rana Magar, who secured 19,925 votes. A rival candidate from the NC, Govinda Raj Joshi, had received 6,878 votes, and Bikash Sigdel of RSP had garnered 6,032. Besides Wagle of the RSP, the other candidates for Tanahun-1 are UML’s Sarbendra Khanal, a former Nepal Police chief, who had lost the general election in Kathmandu, and Govinda Bhattarai of the NC. It seems that there will be a fierce contest between NC’s Bhattarai and RSP’s Wagle in the constituency. Despite the Congress winning the general election, it is too early to call a winner in the constituency because of chronic intra-party rift in Tanahun. President Poudel and senior Congress leader Joshi, who filed a rival candidacy in the general election, share a bad blood. There is a chance that the Joshi faction might lend tactical support to Wagle to cut the votes of NC’s Bhattarai, a former student leader. The Congress leadership knows that Tanahun-1 will be a crucial battleground, and that’s why the party has tasked its two general secretaries—Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma—to lead the election campaign there. The by-election in Chitwan-2 will also be interesting, as the RSP leader, Rabi Lamichhane, will be re-contesting there, expecting a back-to-back win. Lamichhane had won from the constituency in the general election, securing a whopping 49,265 votes against his closest rival, Nepali Congress’ Umesh Shrestha, who only got 14, 983 votes. But the RSP leader lost his lawmaker status after it was revealed that he had presented an invalid citizenship certificate to contest the polls. Lamichhane not only lost his seat in the House of Representatives but also his post as the home minister in the newly formed government. Lamichhane hopes to secure another landslide win from Chitwan-2 and shut down his detractors. Although a new writ has been filed against him at the Supreme Court for holding dual passports at the same time, his supporters believe that it is a ploy to discredit him once again. Despite several controversies and allegations, Lamichhane remains a formidable candidate.
