Naturally, Deuba came under fire from the party rank and file for failing to save the electoral alliance and helping revive the coalition of two major leftist forces. It was a disaster in the eyes of the NC as well as external powers including India that are averse to a communist party rule in Nepal.
But by joining forces with the UML and other fringe parties including the Hindu right-wing Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Prime Minister Dahal had cobbled together a shaky coalition. As the key coalition partner UML, the second largest party in parliament, was effectively running the government. Oli was the kingmaker, and Dahal a powerless premier. It didn’t take long for the Maoist-UML coalition to crack. The NC played a significant part in this by offering a vote of confidence to Dahal, even if that meant blurring the line between the ruling and the opposition parties in parliament and creating a national confusion. Now the Maoists and the NC have once again revived their coalition, but the uncertainty about its lifespan remains — after all, making and breaking of alliances has always been a dominant theme in Nepali politics. The breakdown of UML-Maoist coalition in two months does not offer any hope of stability. No one knows what kind of power-sharing understanding was reached between Prime Minister Dahal and NC leader Deuba this time. There are media reports that Dahal, Deuba and CPN (Unified Socialist) leader Madhav Kumar Nepal will be taking turns running the government for five years. But even the top politicians of the ruling parties cannot confirm if such a deal was indeed struck. Before taking the decision of forming the latest coalition, Prime Minister Dahal had held several rounds of meetings with senior Congress leaders. But NC Central Working Committee member Ramesh Rijal says, “The party leadership has not informed us about the agreement on power-sharing.” As the joint numerical strength of the NC and the Maoists is not sufficient to keep the coalition in power, it is vital for the two parties to stay together and, at the same time, keep the other fringe parties happy. For now, the NC seems to be basking in the glory of having recaptured the position of power by breaking up the left alliance and having elected its leader Ram Chandra Poudel to the post of president, but the party has a steep challenge ahead to keep the coalition together. The same goes for the Dahal’s Maoist party, which has been losing its political strength and relevance over the years. “Continuation of the current coalition is the need of the hour,” NC Vice-president Purna Bahadur Khadka told the party meeting on Wednesday. Compared to the past, the NC this time seems united when it comes to fostering a sustainable partnership with the Maoist party — that is, until the next election. Earlier, leaders like Gagan Kumar Thapa and Shekhar Koirala were not in favor of this idea. But it is still too early to say how long this political partnership will last. A few days back, Thapa said at a public program that the course of the coalition would be determined by the performance of the government in the next five-six months. He added if the current coalition fails to ensure good governance and address the economic crisis, it could prompt the NC to rethink about the future of the government. Thapa’s remarks suggest that the NC-UML coalition cannot be ruled out. The UML, which is now in opposition, is already hinting at a possible alliance with the NC “for the stability of the government.” The UML’s top priority right now is to unseat Dahal and his party from power. However, NC leader Rijal says there are no chances of an NC-UML coalition at least until the next election. NC youth leader Shankar Tiwari is also confident that the chances of NC-UML coming together are almost zero. “The parties came together in the past because there was the question of constitution promulgation. The situation is completely different now,” he says. It appears that Deuba and his team in particular is unlikely to displease the Maoists or change the political course, for the fear that it could once again create an environment where the two communist parties could come together. NC youth leader Tiwari says there are some major political and policy barriers between NC and UML. “Oli’s attempts to dissolve the previous parliament was unconstitutional, but he is still insisting that he was right and talking about mid-term elections. Congress cannot work together with the UML if it is holding the same view,” he says. But there is no mistaking that Prime Minister Dahal still leads a fragile coalition of eight parties with conflicting positions on domestic and external issues. His main challenge is to satisfy all coalition partners. The incumbent Cabinet will be reshuffled soon after he takes a vote of confidence on Monday. There are chances of dispute breaking out among the coalition partners during the Cabinet expansion process, because it is impossible to meet the aspirations of all political parties. As the largest party in the coalition, the NC will certainly bargain for more ministries, and powerful ones like finance, foreign affairs, and defense. There is also the risk of intra-party feud within the NC, as the number of ministerial aspirants has increased with the rival faction in the party supporting Deuba in his decision to give the trust vote to Prime Minister Dahal back in January. According to some NC leaders, Deuba wants to provide a respectable share to the rival faction for the sustainability of the coalition. Or else, there is sure to be friction within the party, which could affect the government functioning. Meanwhile, the CPN (Unified Socialist), another vital coalition partner, is also sure to bargain for more ministries, for it did not get the presidency. And with several parties likely to be represented in the government, it remains to be seen how practical the Common Minimum Program is going to be. The parties could manage the differences on the domestic issues, but disagreements persist between the NC and the UML on matters relating to dealing with external powers. Another challenge before the Dahal-led government is to address the demands put forth by fringe parties such as Nagarik Unmukti Party and Madhes-based parties, mainly about releasing their cadres who are in prison and issues related to citizenship. Parties in the opposition, mainly the UML and the RPP, who together hold 90 seats in parliament, could protest if the issue of citizenship finds space in the House.
