These days, it is Oli who has been frequenting Baluwatar on an almost daily basis to meet Dahal, the current prime minister, to remind the latter of the gentleman's agreement reached on December 25 last year.
As part of the power-sharing deal, Dahal had promised Oli, his primary coalition partner, to hand over the prime minister’s office after 2.5 years, and support UML’s speaker and presidential candidates. Since December 25 when Dahal became prime minister, there have been one-on-one meetings between two leaders more than 20 times. As agreed, Dahal’s party voted UML speaker candidate, Dev Raj Ghimire, to victory last month. But now the prime minister is not so keen about backing UML in the presidential election slated for March 9. Just like in the past, Dahal and Oli are drifting apart after coming together to form a government. On Thursday, too, Oli held a long and fruitless meeting with Dahal regarding the presidential election. The UML leader appears to be losing his hope and patience with the prime minister and his party. He doesn’t seem positive about the longevity of the current coalition. What will happen on March 9 is still unclear. There are speculations of repetition of 2008 presidential election when then Nepali Congress candidate, Ram Baran Yadav, despite being projected to lose the contest, won the presidency. The only thing clear at the moment is that some parties are mounting efforts to defeat the UML candidate at all costs. CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal made the intention clear when he said on Wednesday that giving one party the leadership reins of both houses of parliament as well as the presidency would spell disaster for the country. There is also an increasing chance of the current coalition breaking up. Just a few days earlier, NC General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa predicted that this coalition was bound to crack within a week. It is no secret that the NC, which was relegated to the opposition benches despite winning the most number of seats in the parliamentary election of November last year, wants to dismantle the Maoist-UML coalition partnership and form a new government under its leadership. That is why the NC gave its confidence vote to Prime Minister Dahal to the surprise of many. The trust vote from the opposition gave Dahal the greater latitude to bargain with Oli, the kingmaker in the current coalition. The safety net offered by the NC has given Prime Minister Dahal to take decisions that serve the interest of his party, like announcing a public holiday to mark the day the Maoist party began a decade-long armed insurgency. Deuba and Oli didn’t utter even a single word of criticism regarding the controversial public holiday decision, because they both want Dahal by their side. Prime Minister Dahal has not said clearly that he will not vote for the UML presidential candidate, but he has been calling for a national consensus candidate. If Oli and his party wish to keep this coalition intact, the best course would be to acquiesce to Dahal. The prime minister is under intense pressure from his own party, NC, CPN (Unified Socialist) and even ‘external forces’ to keep the UML out of the presidential race. They do not want UML’s monopoly in all key state institutions. Under the current power-sharing deal, the UML, which currently heads both houses of the parliament, is set to get the executive power after 2.5 years. And if the party were to get the presidency as well, it would dominate all vital positions, including the Constitutional Council that recommends appointments to key positions. Prime Minister Dahal is aware of this prospect, and his party leaders have also cautioned him against accepting UML’s presidential candidate, who will most likely be a loyalist of Oli. Some Maoist leaders are already putting pressure on Dahal to support the NC candidate instead. NC leaders are also frequently meeting Dahal for the same purpose. NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and his team are working closely to convince Dahal. Once the Maoist party comes up with an official position, the NC is likely to announce its presidential candidate. Ram Chandra Poudel and Krishna Prasad Sitaula are the front-runners in the presidential race from the NC. But Dahal wants NC to come up with a long-term collaboration vision with the Maoist party. He has been in consultation with NC General Secretary Thapa, who has divergent views on some issues related to alliances. The UML and its leaders have already sensed that a conspiracy is afoot to deny presidency to the party. The party, however, is treading carefully, for it is in their interest to keep the coalition going. A political fallout with the Maoists means the UML will lose its power both at the center and in provinces. UML Secretary Lekhraj Bhatta says the party will come up with a candidate acceptable to all parties. He is optimistic that the current coalition will survive. Senior Maoist leaders like Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Barsha Man Pun are also in favor of keeping the coalition intact. But it is not Dahal’s decision alone that could keep the Maoist-UML together. Meanwhile, Madhes-based Janata Samajbadi Party and Loktrantrik Samajbadi Party are closely following the Maoist-UML relationship. According to some leaders, the Madhes-based parties could come up with their own presidential candidate. Prime Minister Dahal faces an acid test. He must bring all parties together and prevent the country from descending into yet another political tailspin.
