Rupak Sapkota: Concrete plan necessary to deal with geopolitical flux

Tensions between the US and China are increasing day by day and its implications are already felt in Kathmandu. The Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government faces an herculean task of managing a balanced and trustworthy relations with all major powers to reap benefits from their economic development.

In this context, Pratik Ghimire talked to Rupak Sapkota, a foreign policy expert to solicit his views about Nepal’s changing foreign policy picture and geopolitical situation.

What is your view on the recent shifting of geopolitical tension in the Himalayan belt?

Over the past few years, big powers have adopted an assertive foreign policy. Let’s ponder the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the position taken by major powers. America and its traditional allies are providing arms and ammunition to Ukraine. Similarly, it is also urging its Asian allies to stand in favor of Ukraine and provide weapons. American military and diplomatic officials are undertaking a world-wide tour to advance their agenda. On the other hand, strategic relations between China and Russia have been developing and growing too. At the same time, Xi Jinping has been re-elected for the third consecutive term, and the political document endorsed by the Chinese Congress shows that China desires to change the world order in its favor.

China has the economic and diplomatic strength to undo the existing world order. America is enhancing its presence in the Indo-pacific region with a primary goal of containing China. It has launched a fresh campaign to re-energize its alliances both in Europe and Asia. China, meanwhile, is adopting a dual strategy. Its immediate priority is not to alter the existing world order but to exploit its industrial and technological advantage. At the same time, China also wants to promote its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with a mantra of human community with a shared future. America’s leadership is becoming weak and in this context, China along with Russia and other emerging economies, who want to see change in the current world, are advocating for a new world order. In a nutshell, world powers are heading towards a bitter conflict and confrontation. And in this scenario, the countries of the global South are particularly fearful that they could be trapped in the stiff geo-political contest between the US and China.

NATO has been paying close attention to Asia. Does this mean the geopolitical tension will further increase in future? 

This is entirely a new global phenomenon that we had not seen after the second world war. Over the past few decades, America was obviously paying attention to Asian countries but NATO’s Asia pivot is a new development. America is working at a structural level like QUAD and AUKUS but NATO’s direct communication and engagement with Asian countries is rare. The NATO chief recently visited Japan and South Korea, and is likely to visit India as well. The primary objective of NATO’s move is to secure more arms and ammunition for Ukraine, and the second is to enhance military and strategic cooperation with India, which is projected as a pillar of the Indo-Pacific region. India’s defense cooperation with Russia is strong and robust. And since India has adopted a policy of neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war, it has made the US unhappy. NATO, America and other Western powers want to minimize India’s military dependence with Russia.

Over the past few years, the defense cooperation between India and US is increasing, which has been reflected through plus-two dialogue. This aims to minimize India’s defense cooperation with Russia. At the same time, India and China have been locked in a bitter border dispute since 2018, and there are no signs of rapprochement despite the dialogue between two Asian powers. Both India and the US view China as a common security threat. So, it seems that geopolitical gravity is gradually shifting to Himalayan region. America has been trying to upgrade its cooperative relationship with India for three reasons: to enhance the influence of the Indo-Pacific region; to contain China; and to minimize India’s defense dependency with Russia.

How do you see the recent US engagement with South Asian countries including Nepal?

As stated earlier, America is expanding multi-layer engagement with Asian countries and Nepal is also an important priority. Obviously, Nepal’s geopolitical location drives big powers to engage with us. A recent report from the International Monetary Front has shown the growing economic might of China as well as India. And since Nepal is between these two powers, it may have driven America to engage more with us. America’s economic engagement with Nepal, be it through MCC or other forms, is gradually increasing. The series of visits of American officials show that Nepal-US bilateral relations will further enhance in the coming days. Nepal’s geopolitical location has driven the US to engage more with Nepal.

Lying between the world’s two greatest economies, Nepal occupies an important position. Frequent visits of American officials show our relationship and engagement with America has expanded. America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) has come up with a holistic approach—military, economic, governance and politics, trade and connectivity. Though American officials are not vocal about it, the US is conducting all its activities and assistance in this region through IPS.

How is the Nepal government preparing or dealing with these issues?

After the promulgation of a new constitution in 2015, Nepal has failed to navigate the fast-changing geopolitics, and does not have any plan on how to manage the competing foreign powers and pursue our national interest. There is a state of confusion on how we conduct our foreign policy in the current geopolitical flux. In many ways, I see a strategic void. Over the past few years, big powers have come up with different strategies, such as America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. Nepal was asked to join the IPS during our foreign minister’s America visit in 2018. We endorsed the MCC with declarative interpretations and we have told big powers that we cannot join any military strategies. Similarly, we are moving ahead with China to cooperate on the economic front of BRI and other projects, but we have failed to make any substantial progress. India, too, is coming up with aggressive strategies.

Agnipath is a case in point. It is yet to be seen how the new government tackles the Agnipath scheme. The spillover effects of geopolitical rivalry have already been felt in Kathmandu, but we do not have any plan on how to push our economic agenda amid such strategies. This is a major challenge of the new government led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal. We should carve out a clear strategy of staying away from intense geopolitical rivalry and engage with big powers on clear economic terms. Development, prosperity and good governance are our key priorities, and to achieve them, we have to build international cooperation. We need to collaborate with all big powers on economic issues.

What are the key priorities of the Dahal-led government?

The Dahal government should conduct international relations focusing on three key priorities. First, staying away from military engagement with big powers while accepting economic assistance and investment. Second, it should conclude the remaining tasks of the peace process by taking the international community into confidence. And third, it should enhance climate diplomacy and raise Nepal’s climate vulnerabilities in the international forum. Along with these priorities, Nepal should also enhance its diplomatic outreach through multilateral agencies like SAARC. The new government should play an active role to revive the SAARC process.