First is honoring the gentleman’s understanding between him and Oli, and supporting UML’s presidential candidate but with some preconditions. Among the preconditions will be settling the transitional justice process following the spirit of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, according to some Maoist leaders. Dahal does not want Oli to use transitional justice as a political bargaining chip.
Another of Dahal’s fears of having a UML candidate as president is that Oli might conspire to topple the government and push the country toward parliament dissolution. Some Maoist leaders say Dahal is already feeling ganged up on by the UML and other parties in the coalition close to the UML, namely Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party. Dahal is currently under pressure to reappoint RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane who recently resigned as Home Minister over citizenship controversy. The issue of Lamichhane’s reappointment has further widened the rift between Dahal and Oli. It is said Dahal wants to replace RSP and RPP with CPN (Unified Socialist) and other fringe parties that remain outside the government despite supporting it. By doing so, the prime minister hopes to reduce UML’s influence in his government. According to one Maoists leader, the onus of creating an environment of trust lies on Oli. If that happens, he said, Prime Minister Dahal might agree to support UML’s presidential candidate who is not Oli's loyalist. Maoist leader Devendra Poudel is of the view that there should be a consensus among major parties including Nepali Congress on the presidential candidate. He added such an agreement would also ensure cordial ties with the international community. It is said Prime Minister Dahal wants to bring NC on board the consensus boat for the presidential election also to appease India, the US and rest of the Western world — and to shed the “pro-China” label. Dahal’s other strategy is breaking the current coalition and forming a new one with the NC. In this scenario, the Maoist party will support NC’s presidential candidate. It will also pave the way for the Unified Socialist, Nepal Samajbadi Party, and other fringe parties to join the government. If that happens, Dahal could bargain for a full-five-year term as prime minister with the NC, which the latter is likely to agree to. As this paper has previously written, Dahal is seeking NC’s assurance to forge a long-term alliance and to conclude the transitional justice process. The third strategy is to seek support of the major parties to back Madhav Kumar Nepal of Unified Socialist as the next president. If the UML is genuinely committed to the prospects of forming a broad leftist alliance, it should not object to Nepal's candidacy. This could also be an acceptable option for the NC, says a Maoist leader, as well as address the concerns of external powers. Prime Minister Dahal is reportedly discussing these three alternatives with his close aides. Meanwhile, the UML is getting increasingly suspicious of Dahal’s intention. The prime minister’s position on the Home Ministry portfolio and his reluctance to form a political mechanism to guide the government has already miffed Oli and his party. Oli has been meeting Dahal on a daily basis in order to keep the coalition intact. The Maoist prime minister, who got the trust votes from the NC and other parties, is confident of his survival even without the UML.
