The CPN-UML has concluded that it should be ready to contest the Nov 20 elections to the federal parliament and provincial assemblies alone. Earlier, the main opposition had expected the five-party ruling coalition to break up, paving the way for a leftist alliance like in the 2017 elections. In a recently concluded Central Committee meeting of the UML, Chairman KP Sharma Oli said: “Now that there is no chance of a split in the five-party coalition, we have to launch a campaign to bring back our cadres from other parties.” He was talking about the party cadres who had defected to the breakaway party, CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal. Dozens of Unified Socialist have returned to the mother party. The number is expected to increase as the election date draws closer.

The UML’s principal strategy is to weaken the CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN (Unified Socialist)—major partners in the five-party ruling coalition led by the Nepali Congress (NC). Oli sees the two leftist parties’ allying with the Congress as a hindrance to his party’s electoral ambitions. The same alliance had wrested many UML seats in the local level polls this past May.

Oli reckons the only way to preclude the five-party alliance from snatching up the UML’s constituencies is by weakening the Maoists and the Unified Socialist. In order to exhaust the five-party alliance, the UML may join hands with fringe forces in some of the constituencies, but there are no chances of large-scale alliance. UML general secretary Shankar Pokharel says the party is “investing no more time and energy to materialize electoral alliance” but there could be seat-sharing in some constituencies. While the five-party alliance is engaged in intense seat-sharing negotiations for the November polls, the UML has already hit the ground running.  The party has formed a 151-member Central Election Mobilization Committee under Oli and plans to form a similar committee at the grassroots level. Oli also leads the committee mandated to prepare the party's election manifesto. The UML is in a similar situation that the NC was faced in 2017 when all communist parties banded together against the grand old democratic party. Though Oli has been telling the UML rank and file that the party would emerge the ultimate victor, the party leaders know they have to mount quite a battle. Some party leaders say it is a “do-or-die” matter. In the worst-case scenario, they fear, the UML will secure around 70 seats in the House of Representatives. Still, second-rung leaders in the UML including Ghanashyam Bhusal are willing to pull out all the stops to form a broader left alliance. He told the party’s Central Committee meeting recently that with a strong electoral alliance among the left forces, the party could win 150 out of the 165 first-past-the-post seats in the 275-member House. Bhusal is of the view that the UML and other major parties to the left of center should issue a white paper owning up to their past mistakes to regain voters’ trust. “Without the alliance,” says Bhusal, “the parties on the left are at risk of becoming the combined loser.” However, UML Chairman Oli is unwilling to make any compromise with Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Unified Socialist or Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Center. He believes the wrangling over sharing of seats among the five-party alliance would downsize the strength of Congress, the UML’s main rival. In his political document, Oli has said that the party lacks only 16 percent seats to secure a parliament majority. Due to the electoral alliance among five parties, he believes the NC will likely contest for around 80 seats, triggering dissatisfaction inside the party and consequently, rival candidacy. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s rival faction in the Congress, led by Shekhar Koirala, could field separate candidates if it fails to get a respectable share in the elections. In that case, there could be an undeclared alliance in some constituencies between UML and the NC’s Koirala faction. Koirala and Oli held a long meeting about the elections only recently. There are fears of intra-party betrayal within the UML as well.  A study conducted by the UML suggests that the party lost around 60 local government seats due to intra-party rift in the May 13 local polls. The UML is not as united as it appears to be. The leaders who opposed Oli’s move to dissolve parliament in 2020 have been alienated within the party. To placate the disaffected UML leaders and members, the party has launched a separate campaign to strengthen the organizational unity across the country. It has also decided to take strict measures to address the problem of rival candidates. UML says its popular votes stand at 34 percent, NC’s 33 percent and remaining parties hold 8-10 percent. Though Oli remains a popular leader within his party, his image among the voters has significantly declined. “There are obviously some challenges for the UML, as the party will be fighting against the five-party alliance,” says UML leader Deepak Prakash Bhatta. In 2018, Oli led a powerful government in the country’s modern political history but he was ousted from power by the Supreme Court order in 2021, following his attempt to dissolve the democratically elected parliament. Political analyst Bishnu Dahal says the UML is in a difficult position as it is pitted against the five-party alliance, which is expected to fare well in the elections. “The UML also does not have any saleable agenda like in the 2017 elections,” says Dahal. “The issues of nationalism and boundaries are not going to sway the voters this time.” He says the UML will essentially be competing for the second or third position with the Maoist Center. Only time will tell whether Oli’s gambit will pay off.