Ever since Russia on Feb 24 started its invasion of Ukraine, Western countries, led by the US, have been on a mission to rally global support against the war. They are in fact out to shape a global alliance against Putin’s ‘aggression’ on Ukraine. 

On February 24, the day Russia invaded Ukraine, Nepal issued a statement saying it ‘opposes any use of force against a sovereign country in any circumstances and believes in the peaceful resolution of disputes through diplomacy and dialogue.’ On March 1, US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. The two leaders discussed ‘Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified, and premeditated attack’ on Ukraine and the importance of respecting the UN Charter’s principles of state sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

A day later, on March 2, Nepal voted in favor of a UN resolution on the Ukraine crisis ‘that deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation of Ukraine in violation of the Charter.’ Meanwhile, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan abstained from the UN vote condemning Russia’s invasion. 

Nepal’s criticism of the invasion raised the eyebrows of some foreign policy experts who interpreted it as a deviation from Nepal’s non-aligned foreign policy. But Nepal’s political parties had shown a unified front at the time.

The country’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict was also in sharp contrast to that of India and China, its two closest neighbors, both of which had abstained from the UN vote and refused to condemn Russia.  

But in a clear departure from its earlier position, Nepal on April 7 abstained from voting when the UN General Assembly endorsed a resolution suspending Russia from the Human Rights Council. The assembly adopted the draft resolution by a vote of 93 in favor to 24 against, with 58 abstentions. 

Besides Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives had also made a U-turn on their earlier position on Russia’s invasion. Pakistan and India, and Sri Lanka, meanwhile, continued with their position of neutrality. 

Hiranya Lal Shrestha, former Nepali ambassador to Russia, says Nepal initially toed the line of the US and the Western countries, but had a change of heart after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Kathmandu in late March and Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba visited India in the first week of April. 

Shrestha argues that while Nepal can take a position against one country that is attacking another, it is not a good idea “to blindly support the agendas of America and its allies.” 

“We should figure out the root cause of the war. Neighboring countries should be sensitive to each other’s security,” he says. “In this case, Ukraine clearly overlooked Russia’s security concerns.” 

A senior Nepali foreign ministry official, however, tells ApEx that there hasn’t been any shift in Nepal’s stated policy. When a country launches an unprovoked war against another sovereign country, he says, Nepal will oppose the war. But that doesn’t mean we endorse all proposals of some countries while we reject those of others. 

“We condemned the attack but we maintained neutrality on the issue of removing Russia’s membership from the Human Rights Council,” he says, insisting that such balancing cannot be termed a policy deviation. 

Nepal supports mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, respect for mutual equality, and non-aggression and peaceful settlements of disputes. The foreign ministry official says Nepal abstained from kicking Russia out of the Human Rights Council based on the same policy. 

Sanjay Upadhya, a US-based foreign policy expert, says that when Nepal on March 2 voted in favor of the resolution demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, it did seem like the country was tilting towards the US. 

“This perception has been bolstered by the visits of several American political and diplomatic delegations to Nepal in the aftermath of the parliamentary ratification of the contentious MCC compact,” he says. 

By joining the ranks of nations that have deplored Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, says Upadhya, Nepal was perhaps only articulating its anxieties as a small nation precariously sandwiched between two powerful neighbors. 

It’s not just Nepal. Other smaller countries are also being forced to pick sides on Ukraine. 

India and China, which have maintained a neutral position on the issue, have not openly urged small countries to take their side, but they nonetheless want their friends and allies to maintain neutrality. 

Shannon Tiezzi, the editor-in-chief of The Diplomat, wrote in her April 7 article titled ‘Asian Countries Voted to Suspend Russia’s UNHRC Membership?’ that many countries in Asia—and the developing world at large—are increasingly frustrated at being forced to take sides between the US and Russia.  “It’s also an important reminder that when countries are truly forced to pick sides—with a neutral position not an option—many countries will, in fact, choose Russia,” she wrote. 

Foreign policy analyst Dev Raj Dahal says Nepal’s position on Ukraine is influenced by western and particularly American perspectives. 

“The education, knowledge, and exposure of Kathmandu elites are western, so they see all international issues through the same lens,” he says. “The geopolitical implications of Nepal’s stand on Ukraine will depend on how the war progresses and who comes out on top.” 

Foreign policy expert Upadhya says if Nepal is uncomfortable with the increasing Indian and Chinese sway in the country, there are less brazen ways of expressing its doubts than abandoning its traditional non-alignment. 

“Nepal has vitiated its domestic and foreign policy by allowing the narrative that the ruling coalition is pro-American in its basic orientation to hold,” he says. “The countries that abstained from the UN vote did not, by any stretch of the imagination, imply that they were in favor of Moscow’s position.” The Deuba government has done little, he adds, to present its case “as one of conviction rather than of convenience.” 

Four months into the invasion, there is no end in sight to the fighting. As war drags on, its geopolitical implications are being felt everywhere including in South Asia. Past few months have shown that Nepal is not immune.