Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s three-day Nepal visit (March 25-27) was focused more on safeguarding China’s larger geopolitical interests than on bilateral cooperation. The readouts issued by the Chinese side during his stay as well as subsequent Chinese media reports suggest the same.

Securing the support of the South Asian countries on China’s position on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, countering America’s influence in the Himalayan region and creating a favorable political environment in Kathmandu were his key agendas. In his meetings with Nepali leaders, Wang pushed for Nepal’s ‘independent foreign policy’ and urged the country to stay away from geopolitical games—thereby becoming ‘a shining example’ of China-South Asia cooperation.

Speaking with Chinese media outlets in Beijing on March 28, the senior Chinese diplomat said there has been a general consensus among relevant countries that Russia-Ukraine disputes should be settled peacefully through dialogue, and neither war nor sanctions are the solution.

The US too is seeking the support of South Asian countries for its Russia-targeted sanctions. In Beijing, Wang said his trip to South Asia came at a time when the spillover of the Ukraine crisis is spreading, and world peace and development are facing new challenges. “Asia refuses to become a chessboard in the game between major powers, and Asian countries are by no means pawns in the confrontation between major powers,” Wang said. 

Beijing is urging small South Asian countries not to be influenced by America on Ukraine. 

Says Amish Raj Mulmi, the author of All Roads Lead North: Nepal's Turn to China, after the onset of the Ukraine crisis, China has been trying to build a new pro-Beijing consensus in South Asia. 

China, through various channels, has already conveyed its reservations over Nepal’s decision to vote against the Russian invasion at the United Nations.

Even though there is no direct mention of America in Chinese official statements, growing American influence in Nepal figured high in talks at various levels between Wang and Nepali leaders.   

In his meeting with CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Wang said: “We should be vigilant against the resurgence of the Cold War mentality and chaos in the region and jointly safeguard the good situation of regional peace, stability and development.”

“It is necessary to maintain the hard-won peace, stability and development in the region, resist the temptation to introduce bloc confrontation and create turbulence and tension in Asia,” he added. 

According to Maoist leaders, Wang also reminded Dahal of American attempts to encircle China through its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and that Nepal risked becoming a pawn in a great-power confrontation. 

Chinese experts have also tried to explain Wang’s message to South Asian countries.  

In his March 27 Global Times article, Zhao Gancheng, director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, says the US has somewhat achieved its goal of turning some of China’s neighbors against it without investing too many resources. 

“This has encouraged Washington, making it believe it can contend with Beijing. Therefore, the US will mobilize more resources and be more active in an attempt to infiltrate what it sees as China's ‘sphere of influence’,” the article says.

In Kathmandu, Wang focused his message on mitigating growing American influence after the parliamentary endorsement of the MCC Nepal compact. Additionally, he sought strong commitment from the Nepali side on the “One China” policy. 

All top politicians, including Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and President Bidya Devi Bhandari, tried to assure Wang that Nepal is committed to One-China, and will not allow anti-Chinese activities on its soil.

US-based foreign policy expert Sanjaya Upadhayay says Wang sought to impress upon Nepali leaders “the imperative of creating the necessary domestic conditions” that would discourage Nepal from becoming a geopolitical playground against China. 

He believes Wang was interested primarily in gauging Nepal’s continued commitment to its traditional foreign policy tenets amid shifting global geostrategic contours. 

“In particular, Beijing sought to determine whether Kathmandu was adjusting its outlook and—if so—whether it was doing so under unwarranted influence of third countries,” Upadhayay says. As the Nepali side stated its case, he adds, Beijing must have sought fresh assurances from Kathmandu on One-China and other specific issues of Chinese concern.

To achieve those objectives, Beijing wants a favorable internal political situation in Kathmandu. Over the past few months, the relationship between Nepali Congress-led government and Beijing has deteriorated considerably.

Beijing thinks Congress is pro-India and by extension pro-US. The ruling party, meanwhile, is suspicious of Beijing’s “proactive measures” to bring left forces together.

In his meetings with Nepali leaders, Wang conveyed that China was ready to work with all parties, irrespective of their agendas and persuasions. Unlike in the past, the Chinese side did not explicitly raise the issue of left alliance this time.  

Binoj Basnyat, strategic affairs analyst, suspects that with Nepal headed into elections, the Chinese are also concerned about the type of government that will be formed at the center and whether that government would favor them. “The political message of Wang’s visit is that unity among communist forces would be beneficial to Beijing. If that doesn’t happen, Beijing at least wants to create a favorable environment for it here.” 

Basnyat is of the view that China wants to limit the activities of international forces in Asia. 

Mulmi says Wang’s Nepal visit can be seen both as China attempting to build on its influence in smaller South Asian countries, as well as to negate its setback after the MCC compact ratification.

The visit clearly showed that Kathmandu risks becoming an epicenter of US-China rivalry in South Asia.In this fluid situation, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is traveling to India and senior American officials are soon visiting Kathmandu. Expect more turbulence in Nepal’s geopolitical weather-system.