The first elections of local governments in 2017 to be held under the new constitution were mostly smooth even though they had to be conducted in multiple phases to accommodate Madhes-based parties. Initially, due to reservations over the constitution, they were reluctant to join the electoral process.
In a sense, the 2017 elections were a story of stability and contributed to deepening democracy at the grassroots. The tenure of local governments elected in 2017 expires on 19 May 2022, and there are doubts over timely elections. The Election Commission (EC) has proposed April 27 as the election date. If the ruling parties are committed to timely elections, the government needs to announce a date this week: the commission needs at least 120 days for preparations.
Major parties are under pressure not to create a vacuum at the local level. Until two weeks ago, some members of the coalition were reluctant to hold timely elections. Following widespread pressure, their tone and tenor have changed. A meeting of the ruling coalition on January 18 committed to local level elections as per the constitutional and legal provisions. But the commitment meant different things to different parties.
The Local Level Election Act (2017) says there should be no vacuum at the local level and elections must be completed before the expiry of the local bodies’ tenure, which contradicts the constitution which says elections can be held within six months of the expiry of term. The commission decided to follow the Act to forestall a possible political vacuum in local governments. But some parties are trying to delay elections, arguing that the constitution should prevail over other laws.
So, despite their commitment, there is still no surety of timely elections to forestall a vacuum. Until now, only two parties—Nepali Congress and CPN-UML—are clear that elections must be held by April. Initially, Congress Chief and Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was in favor of federal parliament elections. But now Deuba thinks holding local level elections first would allow him to stay in power for another year and half at the least.
Also read: Ruling coalition agrees to hold local level elections in April
If parliamentary elections are held first there could be a change in government leadership and NC could be denied a chance at holding local elections, says a leader close to the PM. So Deuba is putting pressure on coalition partners to agree to timely local elections. NC calculates that the split in CPN-UML could work to its advantage.
The civil society is cautioning political parties on possible political vacuum at the local level. PM Deuba is cautious about his image and does not want to take the blame for derailing the democratic process at the local level, something he has communicated to coalition partners. Historically, Deuba has been blamed for making local bodies defunct after 2002 when he was also the prime minister. The tenures of local representatives had ended that year.
At the time, a legal provision allowed the local bodies’ tenure to be extended by a year but Deuba still choose to end their terms and hand over local leadership to unelected civil servants. But he could not hold elections due to the raging Maoist insurgency. Deuba does not want to repeat the mistake in the final years of his political career. Similarly, the main opposition UML also wants timely elections. But will Duba’s coalition partners CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN (Unified Socialist) agree?
The two parties want to buy time to strengthen their organizations. They fear that if they fare poorly in local elections, their national election campaigns could also be affected. Maoist Center and Unified Socialist seek an electoral alliance. “An alliance among coalition partners is a condition for holding three-tier elections,” says Ganga Lal Tuladhar, deputy general secretary of Unified Socialist.
In the 2017 elections, of 753 local governments, UML won 297, Congress 274, CPN (Maoist Center) 107, and the remaining parties won 76 seats. After the UML split, around 10 percent of its elected representatives deserted to the new Unified Socialist led by former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. By holding local elections first, NC wants to benefit from the UML split.
Also read: Rural municipalities, municipalities urge government to fix date of local level elections pronto
Maoist Center and Unified Socialist are not opposed to local elections but they want to exploit the constitutional provision to buy time.
As per this plan, there will be a political vacuum at the local level after May 19. Unified Socialist leaders say election dates should be announced only after harmonizing Local Elections Act and constitutional provisions. There are also voices that the local level vacuum would facilitate free and fair federal and provincial elections, as incumbent local government heads could otherwise misuse their offices to influence voters.
If the parties stick to constitutional provisions, April elections are unlikely. Says Maoist leader Dev Gurung, in principle, parties have agreed to hold local elections within the framework of constitution and relevant laws. “But the confusion over the constitution and the laws should be first settled to clear the way for elections,” says Gurung.
Some in the ruling coalition want November local elections, taking advantage of the constitution’s leeway. The ruling parties may also use the third Covid-19 wave as an excuse to postpone elections. In a ruling coalition meeting on January 19, some leaders had advised PM Deuba to analyze the pandemic before announcing elections. But virologists say April elections should not be affected.
Says virologist Sher Bahadur Pun, the third wave triggered by the new Omicron variant is unlikely to remain active by April even though the situation may not be completely under control. “The experiences of South Africa and other countries suggest infections will go down after four weeks. In Nepal, too, cases will start to decrease after two or three weeks,” he says.
On the face of the third wave, parties have limited their activities. Experts say Covid-19 cannot be used as an excuse to delay elections. In India, even amid the Covid-19 crisis, the country is holding state assembly elections in Manipur, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Goa in February. So Covid-19 should not hinder elections in Nepal as well.
Timely local elections will also allow for timely polls to national parliament and federal assemblies. But first there needs to be consensus among political parties on election dates.
“Election laws that contradict the constitution must be amended before announcing elections, for which the parliament should be allowed to operate unhindered,” says Tuladhar.
