As many as 600,000 Nepali migrant workers stranded in the Gulf countries and Malaysia due to the Covid-19 pandemic want to return home. This is in addition to perhaps even more of them who want to reenter their country from neighboring India. Many of them have already lost their jobs while others too await the termination of their contracts.
According to a preliminary government report, around 500,000 Nepali migrant workers—mainly from the five Gulf countries of Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman—want to return immediately. Even among them, around 100,000 need urgent rescue. But the federal government is yet to come up with a solid repatriation plan.
“The way I see it, evacuating migrant workers stranded abroad is going to be a bigger challenge than fighting Covid-19 at home,” says Arjun Kanta Mainali, a former joint secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who closely followed the Gulf region while at the ministry. “The government’s first duty is to find out the exact number of people who want to return, or have no other option after losing their jobs. If necessary, we can send a fact-finding mission to those countries,” says Mainali. Without finding out the actual number, he adds, the government will struggle to come up with a credible plan on evacuation, quarantine, and social reintegration of those workers.
Nepal issues work permits for 130 countries. Almost two-thirds of those with work permits end up in Malaysia or in the Gulf countries. Foreign Minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, who is in regular contact with Nepali missions abroad, accepts that Nepali migrant workers abroad are facing severe hardships due to the corona pandemic—and the situation could get worse.
Speaking at a parliamentary committee meeting on May 6, Gyawali said preliminary assessment showed “10-30 percent Nepali migrant workers are likely to lose their jobs.” In the past decade, Nepal issued over 3.5 million labor permits. (Nepali workers don’t need permits to work in India.)
Herculean task
The main problems Nepali workers are facing relate to expiry of visa, termination of job contracts, and legal problems arising from visa expiry. Nepal is looking to buy time. Prime Minister KP Oli and Foreign Minister Gyawali are trying to persuade their counterparts in Gulf countries to delay the return of migrant workers. “We cannot evacuate all those who want to return at once, so we have to give priority to those in crisis,” says former government secretary Purna Chandra Bhattarai who worked in the Labor Ministry for a long time.
The first challenge is to arrange their return flights with the state’s limited financial resources. As all stranded migrant workers cannot pay for their tickets, the government will have to pitch in for them. It will also have to hire foreign airlines to airlift them. It will also be a time-consuming process. As the number of workers in Gulf countries and Malaysia is very high, it could take months to complete evacuation even if the task were to start now. “Coming up with a comprehensive repatriation plan is thus difficult without thorough discussions with all the concerned stakeholders,” says Bhattarai.
The second challenge is arranging quarantine facilities for those who return. Local governments can help arrange quarantine facilities, but they are short on resources. They are asking for cash from the federal government, which in turn is struggling to meet their demand as it too is under considerable financial pressure. As local units have struggled to quarantine and monitor even a handful of people up until now, it is hard to imagine them handling hundreds of returning migrants.
“Let us say that we as a country are thoroughly unprepared,” says Mainali. Even in the case the Nepali workers are not immediately sent back by their host countries, they will surely come when international air travel resumes. “It’s not like we have an option of not taking back our people,” he adds.
Scary numbers
The top nine destinations for Nepali migrant workers, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, are Malaysia (700,000), Saudi Arabi (400,000), Qatar (365,000), the UAE (250,000), Kuwait (70,000), South Korea (40,000), Bahrain (25,000), Oman (20,000), and Israel (3,000).
Although there is no official estimate of the number of Nepali migrant workers in India, a report by the South Asian Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) says that it could be as high as 2.8 million. Thousands of Nepali migrant workers go to various parts of India as seasonal migrant workers. Thousands more work in the hospitality sector. Many of them could lose their jobs.
Creating jobs for those who return will be another big challenge. According to Nepal Labor Force Survey 2018, there are approximately 20.7 million working-age people in the country. Of them, over half are believed to be working in the informal sector. An estimated 500,000 people enter the Nepali labor market annually. Before the onset of the corona crisis, as per the Finance Ministry’s 2018-19 economic survey, the government was planning on transferring unproductive surplus labor force from “agriculture… to service sectors including industry, trade, tourism, education and health.”
With the decimation of these other sectors due to the corona pandemic, the government has been forced into a U-turn, as it now plans on a massive expansion of the agriculture labor force. The hope is that revitalization of agriculture will soak up Nepal’s surplus labor as well as many of the returning migrants. Yet the agriculture plan is short on specifics.
This lack of seriousness could be costly. It is hard to foresee the socio-economic and political consequences of the state’s failure to adequately integrate the mass of returning migrant workers.
