The Chinese delegation under Foreign Minister Wang Yi was not pleased. It had come to Kathmandu to prepare the ground for President Xi Jinping’s much-discussed Nepal visit. But neither could it get the Nepali side to finalize the BRI projects Nepal wanted China to help with, nor was it assured about the ‘security preparations’ for Xi’s trip.
Possible protests in Nepal by pro-Tibet activists or by the local Muslim community over China’s treatment of its Uighurs are a big headache for China. The Chinese delegation would not have been reassured by the small protest in front of the Chinese Embassy by a group of women, on whatever pretext, when it was in town. This is perhaps the first time that there has been a public protest in front of the Chinese Embassy during the visit of a high-level dignitary from China. The Chinese were left wondering: Even with its supposedly foolproof preparations, how could Nepal Police have failed to guard the embassy periphery?
According to high-level intelligence officials in Nepal, the Chinese side has to be fully assured that there would be no such faux pas before they give the final stamp of approval to Xi’s Nepal visit. But if he comes, it will be a momentous occasion: the first time a Chinese president will be in Nepal in 23 years, after Jiang Zemin’s 1996 trip. The exact date and duration of Xi’s trip is yet to be worked out. Probably he will come. If the Chinese are fully assured of security, he could even stay the night. If not, it would be an eight- or nine-hour visit.
In 2016, when Xi visited Bangladesh, there were speculations that he could visit Nepal too. Many reckon the visit was cancelled due to the sudden collapse of the UML-Maoist coalition government. “In 2016, powerful forces were successful in blocking Xi’s visit. But this time, he is almost sure to come,” says Tanka Karki, a former Nepali ambassador to China.
The Chinese will push for the signing of at least one major BRI project to justify Xi’s trip. Besides that, the visit of the Chinese president could also set in motion a geopolitical tug-of-war. Its consequences could be felt far into the future.
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Xi’s route to Kathmandu
Barring a dramatic turn of events, Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a state visit to Nepal next month. To lay the ground for the visit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi completed a three-day trip to Kathmandu earlier this week. In recent years, high-level Chinese officials have been coming here with increasing frequency. But Xi will be the first Chinese President to come to Nepal in 23 years since Jiang Zemin’s trip in 1996.
Government officials say the Chinese foreign minister had three broad agendas—to take stock of the preparations for Xi’s security; to explore specific agendas during XI’s visit; and to create a conducive political environment for his visit. Wang held detailed discussions with Prime Minister KP Oli and President Bidya Devi Bhandari about Xi’s visit.
“Both sides underscored the importance of the exchange of high level visits on a regular basis in order to develop mutual trust and confidence, and to further strengthen bilateral relations,” reads the statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the end of Wang’s visit. According to Nepali officials, the Chinese side will finalize the agenda and itinerary of Xi’s visit based on Wang’s inputs.
During his recent Kathmandu trip, Wang seemed mainly concerned about the security dimension of President Xi’s Nepal visit. Former DIG of Nepal Police Hemanta Malla Thakuri believes there is no physical threat to foreign dignitaries in Nepal. But due to the recent unrest among the Uighur Muslim community in China, Thakuri adds, the Chinese may have felt some threat from this section in Nepal.
Then there is Tibet. “During any high-level visit from China, the main concern is possible protest by the Tibetan community in Nepal,” he says. “Even if there is a minor protest in which members of the Tibetan community can brandish Tibetan flags, the Chinese take it very seriously. So our security forces need to be on high alert.”
A senior intelligence officer with the National Investigation Department says the Chinese would finalize President Xi’s visit only after being completely assured. High-level security teams from China have been regularly visiting Nepal in the past few weeks. “Just to be double sure, Nepal Army will be deployed at the front row of the security arrangement,” says the NID official.
Settling for a pittance
During the Chinese foreign minister’s visit, the two countries signed three letters of exchanges: on a hospital recovery project in the district of Manang; on providing 5,000 emergency shelter tents; and on a volunteer Chinese teachers’ program. “It would have been better had these minor agreements not been signed during Wang’s visit, as the visit will be followed by Xi Jinping’s much-more consequential trip,” says a retired diplomat who has closely followed Nepal’s diplomatic history with China.
Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao did not visit Nepal during his two terms between 2003 and 2013, even though he was considered to have in-depth knowledge about Nepal and Tibet. During Hu’s tenure, Nepal was undergoing major political upheavals, such as the king’s direct rule, followed by the monarchy’s abolition, and the dissolution of the first Constituent Assembly (CA) without delivering a constitution. Now that Nepal has a semblance of political stability, both sides see it as an appropriate time for the Chinese President to pay a visit.
In April this year, President Bhandari had extended an invitation to Xi during her visit to China. Xi had responded that he attached great importance to visiting Nepal, and that he would come here at a convenient time. During the visit, Bhandari and Xi had witnessed the signing of seven bilateral agreements, including the protocol to the Nepal-China Transit and Transport Agreement.
South Asian outlier
Xi is seen as the most powerful Chinese president after Mao Zedong. Last year, the Chinese Communist Party changed its statute, paving the way for Xi to lead country for longer than his recent predecessors. Given this context, a visit by Xi will be significant, and the Nepali side has long desired it. The Chinese side, however, has generally been noncommittal, citing lack of preparations.
In 2016, when Xi visited Bangladesh, there were speculations that he could visit Nepal too. Many politicians and diplomats reckon the visit was cancelled due to the sudden collapse of the CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Centre) coalition government. Some even argue that the government was toppled to forestall Xi’s visit. “In 2016, powerful forces were successful in blocking Xi’s visit. But this time, he is almost sure to come,” says Tanka Karki, a former Nepali ambassador to China.
In his first five-year tenure, Xi visited several other South Asian countries but not Nepal. He visited Bangladesh in October 2016, in what was the first visit by a Chinese President to Bangladesh in 30 years. During the visit, Bangladesh and China signed 27 agreements worth billions of dollars. Similarly, Xi visited Sri Lanka in 2014, and Pakistan the following year. Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Maldives have already gotten loans from China to execute projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India and Bhutan are two South Asian countries that have not joined the BRI. Several South East Asian countries have also launched infrastructure projects under the BRI framework.
BRI push
Soon after becoming Chinese president in 2013, Xi announced the mega infrastructure project, the One Belt One Road (OBOR), which was later named the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Xi’s signature project, it is now a major component of China’s foreign policy. So the BRI will be a major agenda during Xi’s visit to Nepal. Although Nepal signed an MoU on the BRI in 2017, there has not been much progress in selecting and implementing projects under it. Officials say preparations are underway to finalize some projects under the BRI and to form high-level mechanisms to look into BRI-related issues. Xi’s visit is expected to expedite these processes.
His visit could also strengthen bilateral ties at the top political level. Of late, China has given high priority to cultivating relations with Nepali political parties. Rail and road connectivity and Chinese investment in Nepal, including in hydropower, are potential areas of bilateral cooperation. But a major concern of the Chinese side has always been Nepal’s sluggish implementation of bilateral agreements.
Sundarnath Bhattarai of the China Study Center believes Xi’s visit would boost Nepal’s standing in the region. “China is not just our neighbor, it is an emerging global power. Xi’s visit is significant and will have wider regional implications,” he says. “The signing of the protocol to the Nepal-China Transit and Transport Agreement and some progress on railway connectivity are major achievements. Regarding railway projects, we have to try harder to bring India on board,” he adds.
Stopover or direct?
The exact date of Xi’s visit has not been finalized, but Nepali officials are confident it will happen sometime in October. What remains uncertain though is whether Xi will stop over in Kathmandu after his informal summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Chennai, or whether he will fly to Kathmandu directly from Beijing. It is also possible that Xi could come to Kathmandu from Tibet, where he will be in October to mark the 60th anniversary of the ‘democratic reform’ in the Tibet Autonomous Region.
Nepali officials have told their Chinese counterparts that a stopover visit after India would not send a positive signal, and it would be preferable if Xi came to Kathmandu via Tibet or directly from Beijing. While the nature and dates of the visit are unclear, preparations are in full swing to welcome Xi in Kathmandu. Usually, the Chinese side announces dates just before a visit. For instance, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s 2012 visit was kept under wraps until the last minute.
