Sensing a possible gang-up of senior leaders against him, Prime Minister and co-chairman of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) KP Oli has of late adopted a policy of placating both senior leaders Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal.Besides Dahal and Nepal, other senior leaders Jhala Nath Khanal, Bam Dev Gautam and Narayan Kaji Shrestha are also dissatisfied with what they see as Oli’s monopoly in the party and the government. These four leaders are coming closer to check that monopoly. Though there has been progress in forming intra-party structures and picking leadership of the party’s sister organizations, Oli’s monopoly, his governance failure and the question of the future leadership of the party and the government remain contentious.

 

On Jan 25, when Oli was in Switzerland to attend the World Economic Forum summit, Nepal, Dahal, Gautam and Shrestha had met to discuss various issues related to the functioning of the party and the government. Oli projected this meeting as a ploy to remove him from power. Now, the same four leaders are trying to mount a collective challenge against Oli’s monopoly. PM Oli of course feels this undercurrent of discontent and has reached out separately to Nepal and Dahal, each of whom has strong command in the party. “PM Oli has started reaching out to senior leaders individually in order to foil a possible alliance against him,” says a NCP leader on condition of anonymity.

 

Soon after Nepal returned from the second Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) forum in Beijing, Oli had a one-on-one with him for over four hours on a range of issues related to party unification. Such a long meeting was the first of its kind following the unification of two communist parties in 2018. The two leaders discussed the ups and downs in their relationship, mainly after party unification, and agreed to take measures to keep their relations cordial. On internal power-sharing, Shrestha, Gautam and Khanal support leader Nepal in his bargaining with Oli.

 

There is wider dissatisfaction as well. Says a former Maoist leader who now occupies a senior position in the NCP: “We are barred from speaking in party meetings and instructed not to speak even in the parliament. This is a serious issue.”

 

"PM Oli has started reaching out to senior leaders individually in order to thwart a possible alliance against him"

An NCP leader

 

Don’t rock the boat

To clear the air of suspicion, Oli and Dahal are meeting on a regular basis. But that does not mean everything is hunky-dory between them. Perhaps Dahal is aware that Oli is hedging his bets. “As part of his appeasement policy, Oli is assuring support to both Nepal and Dahal as they bid for party chairmanship in the general convention,” as another NCP leader put it. However, mistrust between the two leaders is mounting.

 

When PM Oli was in Vietnam, Speaker of the federal parliament Krishna Bahadur Mahara, who is close to Dahal, directed the parliament secretariat to remove ‘unparliamentary’ remarks made by the PM before his foreign trip. Leaders close to Oli saw this as a ploy to remove him.

 

Dahal’s soft approach to main opposition Nepali Congress is also a bone of contention. In recent weeks, in public forums as well as in the parliament, Dahal has been highlighting the need for collaboration between the government and the opposition, while Oli has been strongly criticizing opposition leaders.

 

Whoever secures Oli’s support is likely to win party chairmanship after Oli gives up the post during the next General Convention. He has reportedly intimated to both Nepal and Dahal that due to his poor health he will not stand for party chairperson again.

 

Oli is thus using the general convention as a bargaining chip to perpetuate his stronghold in both the party and the government. The recent finalization of district chairs and secretaries had helped bridge the gap between Oli and Nepal.

 

Bamdev Gautam in particular feels cornered. First, he claims he lost the parliamentary election from his Bardiya-1 constituency in 2017 due to the betrayal of party leaders close to Oli. He had lost to Sanjay Kumar Gautam of the Nepali Congress by 753 votes even though he represented the strong UML-Maoist alliance. Now, Bamdev Gautam is in constant touch with Dahal, Nepal and Shrestha.

 

Last year, co-chair Prachanda had floated a proposal to get Gautam elected to the federal parliament by asking lawmaker Ram Bir Manandhar, elected from Kathmandu-7, to resign. Oli, however, rejected Dahal’s proposal, which further widened his rift with Gautam. Even before party unification, Oli used to criticize Gautam as being unnecessarily close to the Maoist party. Of late, hinting at Oli, Gautam has been speaking of systematic efforts at ending his political career.

 

No presidential pardon

Following the three-tier elections, Jhalanath Khanal had claimed the post of the country’s president in 2018. Oli opposed it, while Madhav Kumar Nepal stood neither in favor nor against Khanal’s candidacy. Of late, he is leaning toward the Nepal camp. But Khanal, a former prime minister, does not have much hold on the party organization, where power is shared between Oli, Nepal and Dahal.

 

Another senior leader Narayan Kaji Shrestha has also been criticizing the federal government’s working style. Last August, he resigned as party spokesperson following disagreements with PM Oli over the demands of Dr Govinda KC. Later, Dahal and Oli urged him to continue as spokesperson. Nepal and Shrestha are on the same page on several issues; they had a cordial relationship even before the unification. “Some of my ideas related to party- and government-functioning remain unaddressed,” says Shrestha, who has been urging top leaders not to engage in factional politics.

 

Again, from the outside, Dahal and Oli seem to have a cordial relationship. But the rift between them is widening, especially over federalism. Dahal is displeased with the centralization of power and resources under PM Oli’s watch.

 

Maoist leaders meanwhile complain of Oli’s interference in ministries led by former Maoist leaders. A few months ago, the Home Ministry had come up with a proposal to regulate NGOs but the PM got the Home Secretary to halt it. Recently, political appointments in the Alternative Energy Promotion Center, which falls under the Ministry of Energy under Barsha Man Pun, became a bone of contention. Oli rejected Dahal’s recommendation and made one himself. Dahal and Oli also differ on issues related to transitional justice and how they view the Maoist insurgency.

 

The former Maoist leaders want the ‘people’s war’ recognized in the official party charter. Yet the former UML leaders, and particularly those close to Oli, now say there should be no deviation from the UML line of ‘people’s multiparty democracy’. This has been another source of the Oli-Dahal rift.

 

The power tussle within the NCP is likely to grow as the General Convention draws closer. While other senior leaders want to hold the General Convention as soon as possible, Oli is not in the mood. When the party was united a year ago, the convention was slated to be held within two years. But it is difficult, as the central level convention cannot take place before the local and provincial ones.

 

Shifting sands

Dahal wants to hold the convention soon because next year Oli will complete his two and half years as prime minister—when, as per an agreement, Oli has to hand over either the party’s leadership or the prime minister’s post to Dahal.

 

“We will think of the General Convention only after we settle organizational issues,” says spokesperson Shrestha. But speaking at a program on May 6, Dahal said the party leadership was obliged to hold the General Convention in the next seven to eight months. This means Dahal wants to hold the convention within one year to ensure he gets either the party chairmanship or the prime ministership.

 

What cannot be ruled out either is an agreement between Nepal and Dahal over party chairmanship and prime ministership by sidelining Oli completely. If Dahal and Nepal come together, Oli will be in a minority both in the parliament and in party structures. Of the three clear factions led by Dahal, Oli and Nepal, Dahal has greater numbers than does either Oli or Nepal. Sources say if Oli continues with his monopoly and refuses to hand over power even after a year, other senior leaders will start ganging up against him.

 

“I see the possibility of big changes in internal alliances. Dahal, Nepal, Khanal and Gautam have all suffered at Oli’s hands,” said political analyst Shyam Shrestha in a recent interview with APEX. “If these four come together, there would be a change in power balance in favor of this alliance.”

 

Despite some differences over the formation of intra-party structures and sister organizations, the disgruntled factions agree on the need for an early General Convention. Otherwise Oli could indefinitely extend his tenure as he has vowed to quit only after the convention.

 

According to party insiders, Dahal knows Oli won’t easily transfer power to him as per the gentlemen’s agreement. As such he has already started reaching out to leaders who are unhappy with Oli. The power tussle inside the ruling party is set to escalate.