Kathmandu—Naya Shakti Party, Nepal led by Baburam Bhattarai and the Federal Socialist Party-Nepal (FSPN) led by Upendra Yadav have merged, giving birth to the Samajbadi Party Nepal (‘Socialist Party Nepal’), which aspires to emerge as an ‘alternative political force’.In recent years, it has become fashionable for new political parties to claim they are an alternative force. But their success remains limited, at best. For Yadav, the merger is an attempt to emerge as a national leader from his current status as a regional leader. For Bhattarai, it is simply a survival strategy. The merger is unlikely to have an immediate impact on national politics, but observers say it could lead to new political alignments in the days ahead.

 

Ethnic plank

The Samajbadi Party Nepal seems all set to employ the ethnic agenda as a major political tool. The party has proposed the current seven federal provinces be changed to 10+1, in line with the 2012 report of the High Level State Restructuring Commission, which had recommended delineating the provinces in accordance with the settlements of various ethnicities. (Some members of the commission had rejected this proposal and had submitted a separate report, arguing that the number of provinces should not exceed six.) Federalism based on ethnicity was a prominent demand during first phase of constitution drafting, but it lost charm after the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML emerged as the two biggest parties in the second CA elections in November 2013.

 

Of the 11 points in the unification document of the Samajbadi Party Nepal, point number eight, nine and 10 are related to ethnic, marginalized and backward communities. “But the demand for increasing the number of provinces will invite conflict, because no current provincial government is ready to lose its territory,” says Rajesh Ahiraj, a Madhes analyst. Janajati organizations, however, could support the new party. Co-chair of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), Pushpa Kamal Dahal, still has a soft corner for the demands of the Janajati organizations.

 

Longevity of unification

Observers are skeptical about the sustainability of the new party as the two leaders have separate political and ideological backgrounds. However, some Madhes watchers say the unity could endure as Bhattarai and Yadav are unlikely to have a clash of interests. “Past experiences show parties split due to differences while forming or joining a government. Bhattarai is a former prime minister, so he would not accept a ministerial position, which gives Yadav the freedom to join a government until the new party reaches the position of forming a new government,” argues political analyst Chandra Kishore. “On power-sharing, Yadav is in a comfortable position. Bhattarai is a prominent national-level leader, which would help Yadav expand his organizational base,” he adds. If Bhattarai and Yadav get along, no other leader is likely to challenge them in the new party. Whether the unification lasts hinges on this crucial factor.

 

Question of acceptability

In the new party, there are three top leaders—Baburam Bhattarai, Upendra Yadav and Ashok Rai—who belong to separate ethnic constituencies, respectively the Khas Arya community, the Madhesi community and the hill ethnic community.

 

In the past as well, these leaders had tried to increase their acceptability in communities other than their own. Six days after the promulgation of the new constitution in September 2015, senior Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai severed ties with the then UCPN (Maoist) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal. He also resigned as a member of parliament. He then tried to win over Madhesi sentiments by supporting the movement launched by the Madhes-based parties against the constitution. Bhattarai formed a new party in 2016, arguing that the Maoist ideology was no longer relevant to Nepal.

 

In June 2015, the Upendra Yadav-led Madhesi Janadhikar Forum and the Ashok Rai-led Federal Socialist Party announced unification, giving birth to the Federal Socialist Party Forum Nepal (FSPN). Rai was a senior CPN-UML leader who had left the party arguing that it would not advance the Janajati agenda. The merger reflected Yadav’s ‘look hill policy’ aimed at expanding his support base.

 

So this is the second attempt at party expansion for both Bhattarai and Yadav. After the Madhes movement, the Madhesi people showed some sympathy for Bhattarai, but it is still difficult for him to get their full support. Will Bhattarai dare contest an election from a Madhes constituency in the next election? Or Yadav from a hill constituency for that matter? Observers doubt it. Despite the earlier unification with the Rai-led party, Yadav did not recommend any Madhesi leader from his party to fight elections from a hill constituency. But with the recent unification, Yadav has tried to project himself as a national—and not just a Madhesi—leader.

 

 It seems Bhattarai and Yadav agreed to merge with the next election in mind

 

Impact on national politics

The federal and provincial elections held in December 2017 were a litmus test for both the Bhattarai- and Yadav-led parties. In the federal parliament, the Yadav-led FSPN secured 16 seats, all from Madhes. The party did not do well in hill constituencies. Altogether, the new party has 17 seats in the federal parliament, which makes it the third biggest political force after the NCP and the NC.

 

The Bhattarai-led Naya Shakti faced a humiliating defeat in the elections, with Bhattarai its only contestant to win a seat in the federal parliament. Even that victory was made possible because of his alliance with the Nepali Congress. Some Maoist leaders who supported Bhattarai earlier have left him. Some former government and security officials who had joined Naya Shakti have also severed ties expressing dissatisfaction with Bhattarai’s working style.

 

Under the proportional representation category for the federal parliament, the FSPN and Naya Shakti had secured 470,201 and 81,837 votes respectively. Naya Shakti could not get the status of a national party.

 

Now the Samajbadi Party Nepal heads the government in Province 2; and it is unlikely to quit either the provincial or the federal government immediately. The Oli-led federal government will lose its two-third majority if the new party leaves it, but it will still enjoy a comfortable majority. It seems Bhattarai and Yadav agreed on unification with the next election in mind. In the meantime, the party’s priority is to press for a constitution amendment.

 

RJPN: Alliance or unity?

While Yadav and Bhattarai were discussing unification, the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) had also expressed an interest in merging with the new party. Both Bhattarai and Yadav decided against it. According to leaders from both the sides, although the chances of unification with the RJPN are slim because of leadership issues, there could very well be an alliance to put pressure on the government to amend the constitution. The RJPN, which recently withdrew its support to the Oli-led government, is preparing to hit the streets for a constitution amendment.

 

Closer to the ruling party?

The new party has warned that it would quit the federal government if its demand for a constitution amendment is not addressed. Yadav continues to hold the portfolio of deputy prime minister in the federal government. According to sources, NCP Co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal has urged Yadav not to leave. “The unification could also be a part of Dahal’s ongoing efforts to become prime minister by ousting Oli, but by keeping the current parliamentary setup intact,” says a ruling party leader requesting anonymity. Analysts believe that if the Samajbadi Party Nepal and the RJPN together stage street protests to press for a constitution amendment, it would be easier for Dahal to wrest the prime minister’s chair from Oli.