With under a fortnight left for the start of the general elections, India is in full election mode. Newspapers and TV news channels are filled with endless specu­lations on seat projections and electoral alliances. Leaders of both the ruling BJP and the main opposition Indian National Congress are endlessly canvassing the length and breadth of India, trying to drum up support. One issue dominates the national discourse at this crucial time: Pakistan.

 

The common thinking here seems to be that before India’s ‘preemptive’ air strikes inside Pakistan—that followed the terror attacks in Pulwama, Jammu and Kashmir, killing 40 Indian paramilitary personnel—the two main parties were running neck and neck. After all, in recent state elections, Congress under Rahul Gandhi had made crucial gains in former BJP strongholds like Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh. Gandhi was finally getting into his element, riding high on the back of Modi’s disastrous ‘demonitization’ and BJP’s seeming ignorance of local and state level issues. Yet Pulwama has changed everything.

 

Recent opinion polls show public support for Modi rising following what is widely seen as a muscular anti-Pakistan policy post-Pulwama: for the first time since the 1971 war, an Indian prime minster dared to send Indian warplanes into Pakistani territory. It has now emerged that India was on the verge of using missiles against Pakistan after the latter’s cap­ture of its airman Abhinandan Vartaman in an aerial combat following Pulwama. (Pakistan was readying for a retaliatory missile attack of its own.)

 

In the face of his party’s narrowing lead over the INC, Pulwama, as tragic as it was, was also a big boost for Modi’s popularity. India is readying itself for four more years of the former chaiwala-turned-chowkidar, albeit with a less over­whelming mandate than he got in 2015.

 

For Nepal, whether Modi or Gandhi comes to power makes little difference. The landlocked country has faced crippling blockades during the reign of both their parties. There is also greater institutional memory of India’s neighborhood policy, particularly in the Indian Ministry of External Affairs. Bureau­crats and spooks will continue to have a disproportionate say in how India’s relations with its smaller neighbors will (or won’t) progress.

 

 Meanwhile, Modi’s face is ubiquitous in pre-election Delhi, as are posters expressing support for Pulwama victims. The two phenomena seem inextricably linked. Nepal should start planning for another stint of Modi, which is perhaps a good thing in light of the recent rapprochement between Kathmandu and New Delhi.