Two political developments—a life sentence for lawmaker Resham Chaudhary and an 11-point agreement with secessionist Madhesi leader CK Raut—have widened the rift between the federal government and the Madhes-based parties. 

 

According to the leaders of the Madhes-based parties and Madhes experts APEX contacted, Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) and Federal Socialist Party Nepal (FSPN) see these government moves as ploys to discredit them in Madhes, while giving undue space to Raut, who does not have a strong organizational and political base there. Currently a part of the federal government, FSPN is not as vocal about it as RJPN. But FSPN Chairman Upendra Yadav, who is also Minister for Health, has said that Raut had effectively ‘surrendered’ before the state.

 

Sources say Raut’s portrayal as being on a par with the Madhes-based parties in federal and provincial parliaments is unrealistic. “PM Oli is projecting Raut as our rival political force, which is a gross miscalculation. Our major competitor in Madhes is either Nepal Communist Party led by Oli himself or Nepali Congress,” says RJPN Secretary Keshav Jha. “PM Oli cannot weaken us in Madhes and boost his party and Raut instead,” he adds.

 

RJPN and FSPN leaders as well as Madhes-watchers are of the view that regional parties should have been consulted before the agreement. Madhesi leaders also argue that if the government can seemingly strike an agreement with Raut after asking the judiciary to release him, it could have similarly withdrawn the case against lawmaker Resham Chaudhary. They say while Chaudhary’s case is a political one, Raut’s is treasonous and there can be no comparison between the two.

 

A long-time Madhes watcher says that the Madhes-based parties are unhappy with the government for not consulting them. “It would have been better if the Madhes-based parties were consulted because they are stakeholders in Madhesi politics. The deal has soured the relationship between the government and the Madhes-based parties, which does not bode well for the stability of Madhes,” he says, requesting anonymity.

 

Oli’s calculation

The Madhes-based parties had portrayed Oli as being anti-Madhes during and after the constitution-drafting process. But when Oli became prime minister with a two-third majority, they surprisingly supported him. Oli promised to amend the constitution on the basis of necessity. But nobody was under any illusion that he would actually do so, which was perhaps why FSPN led by Upendra Yadav joined the government without the amendment.

 

RJPN was pressing Oli to amend the constitution. Indeed, both Madhes-based parties were in favor of joining the Oli government. RJPN sought constitution amendment as a face-saver to join the government but Oli did not budge.

 

Oli had sensed that RJPN would withdraw its support to the government after the Kailali court issued its verdict on Chaudhary. At the same time, negotiations were underway with Raut. “As PM Oli has failed to deliver, he hyped up the Raut case to show that he has scored an important political gain. Now, the PM is into political marketing, claiming that he ended a secessionist movement,” says Bijaya Kanta Karna, a close follower of successive Madhes movements. Similarly, according to observers, signing a deal with Raut signals that Oli wants to expand NCP’s space in Madhes.

 

“Oli wants to increase his acceptability in Madhes as he knows his nationalist card won’t work again even in the hills in the next election cycle. To emerge as the largest party again, he needs to enhance his image in Madhes,” says Karna. So Oli’s first priority will be to bring Raut into NCP by making him a lawmaker, if not a minister. Even if that does not work, Oli wants to weaken the Madhes-based parties by giving more space and power to Raut. This, in the view of observers, could also weaken Nepali Congress in Madhes, a traditional NC vote bank.

 

A Madhes watcher says the Madhesbased parties are unhappy with the government for not consulting them

 

Raut’s reasons

It is unclear whether Raut will honor the 11-point agreement. He has told his cadres that there has been an agreement for a referendum and it should be celebrated as an achievement. Observers cite a couple of reasons which might have compelled Raut to sign the agreement. In 2012, he had returned to Nepal, giving up an attractive job in the US. His had high political ambitions. In the second Constituent Assembly (CA) election in 2013, the Madhes-based parties fared poorly and Raut sensed an opportunity.  

 

But in the succeeding years, he struggled to expand his space, even as the mainstream Madhesi parties recouped some of the ground they had lost in 2013. Now, the provincial government (in Province 2) is led by the Madhes-based parties. Raut was upbeat when security forces started to project his group as a major security threat. But he struggled to build his party, making him very frustrated in recent months, according to Madhes observers.

 

The government then arrested him, and he probably started feeling that he could be behind bars all his life. Meanwhile, his family started putting pressure on him to renounce extremism. Oli was offering him space and a respectable position if he joined peaceful politics. “In the past he was successful in attracting radical youths with his secessionist agenda, but now he has given up that agenda. As peaceful politics is already the forte of Madhesi parties, NC and NCP, it won’t be easy for Raut in Madhes,” says Karna.

 

Who’s backing Raut?

After Raut returned to Nepal in 2012 and launched the secessionist movement, there was a certain curiosity: who is backing him? Some pointed to foreign forces, but that was never established. A Madhesi observer says if Raut was backed by foreign forces, ‘he was unlikely to surrender’ before the government. Another senior Madhesi leader requesting anonymity says Raut had at one point sought India’s support. Instead, Indian security forces wanted to rein in his activities in Madhes.

 

“Raut was a card of some unseen forces who worked against the Madhes-based parties. Now, this has been exposed and Raut’s 11-point agreement with the government does not affect our politics in Madhes,” says Jitendra Sonal, a parliamentary party leader of RJPN from Province 2.

 

Leaders and Madhes experts say Raut cannot return to his earlier campaign, which would violate his agreement with the government, but there are multiple options before him. Raut could register his own party and work to build up his organization, targeting the elections after four years. And he could peacefully raise the issue of a referendum in Madhes. He could also join NCP if he gets an attractive position. Another, albeit less likely, possibility is that he would gradually distance himself from politics and return to his profession. “He could choose any of these options,” says Manis Suman, General Secretary of RJPN. 

 

What of RJPN and FSPN?

RJPN and FSPN have limited options. Observers say as there is no environment in Madhes for another popular movement, the only option left for them is to ‘wait and see’.

 

RJPN’s first priority, according to its leaders, is to maintain intra-party unity and strengthen organizational structures. They say they are not worried because RJPN controls the government in Province 2, as well as most of its local level bodies, which will come in handy in the next election cycle. As RJPN has already withdrawn its support to the government, the party would focus on enhancing its position in Madhes. In FSPN’s case, the party is likely to wait a while. “We have already started our struggle from the parliament and we are planning a street protest. We are holding discussions with all political forces that stand for the politics of identiy,” says Jha.  

 

At the local level, conflict between the cadres of RJPN and those of CK Raut could escalate. Raut’s supporters accuse the Madhes-based parties of failing to adequately raise important Madhesi issues and focusing solely on power and money. On the other hand, leaders of the Madhes-based parties used to accuse Raut of trying to split the country. Now, they accuse him of surrendering to KP Oli.

 

RJPN will continue to press the Oli government to amend the constitution. Though it seems unlikely, there have been talks about unity between RJPN and FSPN. Some leaders do not rule out the possibility of Oli reaching out to the Madhes-based parties either.  

 

A FSPN leader, who also requested anonymity, says the party will not immediately quit the government. “We will definitely quit when public frustration with the government boils over, but we are in no hurry. This government still has four years,” he said.