Manchala Jha, a member of the Truth and Reconcili­ation Commission (TRC), made a rather depressing admission in an interview with us last week. “I now think the conflict victims will not get justice,” she said. Of the 63,000 cases registered with either the TRC or the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Per­sons (CIEDP), the twin transitional justice bodies, not one has been settled. Many now think the four years since the creation of these two commissions have been wasted. Their extended terms expire on Feb 10. It is unclear whether their tenure will be extended again, whether the two commissions will be restructured or if they will be replaced by a ‘high level mechanism’ comprising major stakeholders. Conflict victims are divided on the best way forward, as are human rights activists. But the longer these cases of alleged human rights violations from the conflict period drag on, the harder they will be to resolve, not least because vital evi­dence will be destroyed with every passing year.

It is unclear whether the two commissions’ tenure will be extended again

But as Jha hinted in the interview, the kind of strong political will needed to drive the pro­cess forward has always been missing. The former Maoists, now a vital part of the federal govern­ment, want none of their top leaders prosecuted, even in cases of grave rights violations. Ditto with the Nepal Army, which has as resolutely shielded its top officials who have been similarly implicated. Meanwhile, the leadership of the Nepali Congress, the main opposition, which was leading the government at various times during the 10 years of the civil war, is as happy with the status quo.

With such indifference of the political class, it is hard to see transitional justice make much headway in Nepal soon. This is dangerous. Those who lost their loved ones during the conflict deserve a sense of closure, however imperfect. The current strategy of the major parties seems centered on wearing them out. But if there is no justice even in the most heinous rights violations, the already troubling state of impu­nity in the country will further deteriorate. The government’s failure in the rape-and-murder of 13-year-old Nirmala Pant would shock were it not part of the continued indifference and inaction of the political class on law and order. This is a recipe for anarchy.