Maintaining unity among the Madhesi parties that had come together to form the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) ahead of the three-tier elections in 2017, it was then speculated, would be tough. The speculation has been vindicated. In a year and a half since its formation, the six top leaders in the presidium, each of whom represented a separate political party at the time of the merger, have con­tinuously sparred. Things came to a head when on Nov 20, Mahanta Thakur, the reigning presidium coordinator, was removed from the post and replaced by Rajendra Mahato, in what has been described by Thakur’s supporters as a ‘coup.’ Many reasons contributed to Thakur’s downfall. One was the disagreement over whether the RJPN should join the fed­eral government of KP Sharma Oli. After assuming the post of the coordinator, Mahato has been keen to emphasize he is in no rush to join the government, and that the party will join only after key demands of the RJPN, including constitution amendment, are first met. Nonetheless, that Mahato has for some time been negotiating with Prime Minister KP Oli over min­isterial berths is an open secret.

Thakur and his followers were against joining the government unless their demands were first met

While the Mahato fac­tion was in favor of joining the federal government, and pressing for their case from inside the govern­ment, Thakur and his followers were strongly against doing so unless their demands were first met. That was not the whole story though. Other members of the presidium were also unhappy with Thakur’s ‘unilateral’ ways. Thakur, in their reckoning, instituted a culture of nepotism by picking only those close to him to stand in the three-tier elections in 2017, a trend that has supposedly continued while filling key party positions.

If the RJPN breaks apart now, the key Madhesi agenda of constitution amendment will be virtually abandoned. The Federalist Socialist Forum Nepal, the other big Madhesi party is already a part of the federal government, even as PM Oli has shown no inclination to amend the constitution. There is a risk that if the mainstream parties in Madhes are seen to be deviating from their electoral mandate, Madhesi politics could go into the hands of extremist forces. Right now those who have always been against amending the ‘perfect constitution’ might be rejoicing. But soon they might be in for a rude shock.