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Nepali Congress is yet to resolve the general convention issue that has gripped the party for more than two months. While General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa remains determined to hold the convention before the elections, fears of a possible party split continue to grow. If a special general convention is held as demanded by 54 convention representatives, the likelihood of a split cannot be ruled out.

Initially, party president Sher Bahadur Deuba appeared positive about holding the convention before the elections. However, after returning from Singapore where he underwent treatment, his stance has noticeably hardened. Meanwhile, around half a dozen senior leaders have begun openly criticizing Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma for creating troubles within the party. Amid these tensions, the NC is failing to articulate a clear position on the elections.

In an effort to find a way out, Thapa and senior leader Shekhar Koirala held consultations this week. Still, due to ongoing disagreements over the convention, the Central Working Committee meeting has once again been postponed until Saturday. Despite several rounds of talks between Deuba and Thapa, no breakthrough has emerged.

As intra-party uncertainty persists, the broader election atmosphere remains unsettled. Yet Prime Minister Sushila Karki has sounded increasingly confident about holding elections on schedule. Responding to CPN-UML’s demand for parliament restoration, she warned that attempts to revive Parliament could complicate the situation further. In a pointed message to UML, she said: “Even after the election has been announced, the confusion seen on the sidelines of politics within some parties, the demand for the reinstatement of Parliament, and the act of questioning the legitimacy of the government could once again push the nation into a cycle of instability… If one now chooses to take a stance in favor of reinstating Parliament, it only confirms an attempt to repeat the political mishap of the past.”

On Nov 19, Karki held discussions with representatives of the 125 political parties registered with the Election Commission, attempting to reassure them that elections will take place on time. Nevertheless, UML has officially decided to file cases at the Supreme Court demanding Parliament’s restoration.

Amid the legislative vacuum, the government is preparing to issue ordinances to ease appointments to constitutional bodies without parliamentary hearings. However, if the President endorses these ordinances, they are likely to draw widespread criticism, and may face legal challenges.

Adding to the volatility, the clash between GenZ protesters and UML cadres in Bara district marks a serious development. It comes at a time when political parties are already expressing concerns over the security environment for the elections. Many fear that similar incidents could escalate during the campaign period. In this context, a group led by Sudan Gurung is demanding the resignation of Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal and calling for the arrest of former prime minister KP Sharma Oli. Meanwhile, UML is preparing to stage large-scale protests in Kathmandu.

Parallel to this, efforts are underway to formalize a document between the government and various GenZ groups to institutionalize the Sept 8-9 protests. Around 40 GenZ groups have submitted demands to the government. While the current government, which rose to power on the wave of those protests, supports legitimizing the movement, major political parties continue to resist the idea.

Within UML, internal tensions are also intensifying. Chairman Oli has dismissed the possibility of handing over leadership to new leaders, even blocking former president Bidya Devi Bhandari’s potential return by scrapping her membership. Yet Bhandari’s influence remains significant. Senior leader Ishwar Pokharel, who enjoys her backing, is preparing to challenge Oli in the upcoming general convention. Bhandari has been actively meeting UML leaders who favor a leadership change.

Similarly, UML leader Yogesh Bhattarai has grown increasingly vocal about the need for new leadership. Several senior leaders fear the party will face major losses if it contests elections under Oli’s stewardship.

In the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), instability is also deepening. High-profile leaders Sumana Shrestha and Santosh Pariyar have already left, and reports suggest others may follow. The party’s push to secure the release of its chairman Rabi Lamichhane has been unsuccessful, and in his absence, leadership disputes have intensified. Although the GenZ movement was expected to strengthen the party, internal conflict has instead weakened it further.

On the law-and-order front, the government has arrested controversial businessman Durga Prasai on charges of disrupting public order. Prasai, now a vocal proponent of monarchy and a Hindu state, had been preparing to launch street protests. Several leaders have called for his release, citing freedom of speech. A video he released, claiming Prime Minister Karki was behind the GenZ movement, has since gone viral.

Meanwhile, Netra Bikram Chand has formally registered his political party, CPN (Maoist), at the Election Commission. Unlike Pushpa Kamal Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center),  Chand has retained his Maoist ideological line. He had previously split from Dahal in 2012 alongside Mohan Baidya.

Despite the political turbulence, the Election Commission has begun preparations for the March 5 elections. It has called on parties to register themselves in order to participate.

Internationally, Nepal maintained a low-profile presence at this year’s UN climate change conference (COP), represented only at the ministerial level and with minimal civil society participation. As usual, Nepal emphasized issues related to climate justice.

China is recalibrating its Nepal policy in the aftermath of the GenZ protests that caught Beijing off guard. The demonstrations and widespread arson—unprecedented in scale—forced several countries, including China, to urgently evacuate their officials and citizens from Nepal.

Since the protests, Nepal-China relations have noticeably slowed. While other major countries such as India, the US, Japan, and members of the European Union have already resumed full engagement with the new government at multiple levels, interaction between Nepal and China has remained limited.

In the early days of the unrest, Beijing was particularly concerned about its security interests in Nepal. The fall of the KP Sharma Oli-led government was a troubling development for China. Until the Sept 8–9 protests, bilateral ties were progressing steadily. Just beforehand, China had invited Oli to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, where Nepal is a dialogue partner. Oli met President Xi Jinping on the sidelines, took part in China’s Victory Day parade, and earlier had signed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement during an official visit, an outcome that had energized Beijing’s engagement with Kathmandu. China was also preparing a five-year cooperation plan with Nepal and expanding support in agriculture, health, and other sectors. Its engagement with Nepali political parties, including the Nepali Congress, was also deepening.

The GenZ movement, however, appears to have triggered new anxieties in Beijing. Media reports alleging the involvement of Tibetan Original Blood (TOB) raised concerns about external influence. Some left-leaning political leaders further fueled this by suggesting geopolitical motives behind the protests. Additional reports that the government was considering appointing youth leaders allegedly close to the Dalai Lama heightened Beijing’s unease.

Compounding these tensions, the Sushila Karki-led transitional government decided to recall Nepal’s Ambassador to China, Krishna Prasad Oli, who is close to the dismissed prime minister Oli. It did not, however, recall the Ambassador to India, Shankar Sharma. China’s displeasure was evident: notably, the Chinese premier did not send a congratulatory message to Prime Minister Karki, an unprecedented break from diplomatic tradition.

Amid this uncertainty, China moved quickly to protect what it views as its security interests. Ambassador Chen Song raised concerns with top Nepali officials, including Prime Minister Karki and senior officials at the Foreign Ministry. They assured Beijing that the new government remains fully committed to the One-China policy, as previous governments had been.

Chinese officials were encouraged by support from Nepali political leaders, the public, and sections of the media who echoed China’s concerns. In a recent meeting with journalists, Ambassador Chen Song said: “The current government’s commitment to the One-China principle is not less than that of the previous government.”

With these assurances, Beijing’s immediate worries appear to have eased, though several Chinese delegations have since arrived in Nepal to assess the situation firsthand.

Regarding the GenZ movement and upcoming elections, Ambassador Chen has conveyed to Nepali leaders that China will not interfere in domestic political affairs and respects decisions made by the Nepali people. At the same time, Beijing has pledged support for Nepal’s reconstruction and electoral processes.

However, China does not appear optimistic about achieving tangible progress under the interim government, particularly on BRI-related initiatives. Although China continues to work on BRI projects from its side, meaningful progress remains unlikely. Many of the 10 selected projects are seen as unproductive, shaped largely by the political interests of major parties. Still, China’s growing engagement in Nepal’s health and education sectors is expected to continue.

The GenZ protests have also affected tourism cooperation. China had declared 2025 as Nepal Visit Year, but Chinese tourist numbers have sharply declined. Before the protests, the two countries were deepening collaboration on tourism promotion, but the political upheaval has significantly disrupted momentum, and officials expect a further drop in Chinese arrivals in the coming months.

For now, China’s approach appears to be maintaining a working relationship with the Karki administration, prioritising the protection of its core interests while keeping expectations low on broader bilateral progress.

Will the election take place on March 5 as announced by the government? It depends on whom you ask. If you ask ministers and government officials, they insist it will definitely happen.

If you speak with representatives of political parties, you get a mixed response. Many leaders of the CPN-UML reject outright the possibility of elections on March 5, arguing that the current government has no intention of holding them. The Nepali Congress does not oppose elections, but the party remains divided internally. Meanwhile, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal was the first among major parties to validate this government and publicly commit to supporting the elections.

Meanwhile, the GenZ groups, which are split into more than 40 factions, also remain divided. However, they share one common position: before holding elections, there must be an agreement between them and the government on institutionalizing the GenZ movement. Many groups are even refusing to participate, saying that joining elections without laying the groundwork for systemic change would be meaningless.

The international community is broadly in favor of holding the elections on time, emphasizing that they must be free and fair with a level playing field for all actors. Nepal’s neighbors, India and China, also support early elections, believing they will bring relative stability to Nepal. However, China stresses that major political parties must participate. UN Office in Kathmandu is in consultations with 

Kathmandu-based Ambassadors to make a common position on Nepal’s election.. 

Both the government and the Election Commission (EC) are pressing ahead with preparations. In a recent meeting with civil society leaders, Prime Minister Sushila Karki sounded confident that elections will take place, now only three months and nineteen days away. Government ministers and officials remain optimistic.

Security remains a key concern for the March 5 elections. The government says it is preparing a full-fledged security plan, seeking an increased role for the Nepali Army in the integrated security arrangement being drafted by the Ministry of Home Affairs. Regarding police logistics, officials say Nepal has already written to India and China seeking support, and they expect necessary supplies to arrive soon. Preparations are also underway to recruit temporary police personnel for the election period.

The EC is making all required preparations. The voter-list update is underway, with around 300,000 new voters already added. The EC has published the detailed election schedule, with nominations for both First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) and Proportional Representation (PR) beginning on Jan 20. Party registration is also ongoing. However, substantial dialogue between the government and political parties to create a conducive environment is lacking, though PM Karki is in regular contact with second-tier leaders of major parties.

The second-largest party, CPN-UML, rejects the possibility of elections entirely, claiming that the government intends to extend its tenure by repeatedly postponing elections, similar to what happened in Bangladesh. The UML is in talks with the Nepali Congress to forge a common position. The party argues that both should press for the restoration of Parliament, on which the Supreme Court has already begun hearings. The UML has rejected both the current government and the GenZ movement, insisting that all political processes, including elections, should begin only after Parliament is restored. Its dissolved parliament members are meeting daily. At the same time, Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire, also from UML, has strongly endorsed holding elections.

The Nepali Congress is embroiled in internal conflict tied directly to the elections. General Secretary Gagan Thapa wants the party to elect new leadership through a general convention before going to polls, while leaders aligned with Sher Bahadur Deuba want to hold the convention only after the elections. If elections are indeed happening on March 5, the NC is running out of time to organize its convention. There is, however, a strong sentiment within the party that it should participate in the elections to bring the constitution back on track.

CPN (Maoist Center) leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who initially sounded confident about the elections, has gradually shifted his stance and now says that political consensus is needed before moving ahead.

Amid such uncertainty, what are the possible scenarios for Nepal? The first scenario is the elections will take place on March 5 with participation from all political parties, including the UML. This is the ideal situation. If this happens, it would likely steer the country back onto the constitutional path and reduce internal party conflicts. The outcome could be the rise of new political forces, weakening the dominance of major parties like the NC, UML, and Maoists.

The second scenario is that the elections will be held without CPN-UML’s participation. This is possible, as there is sentiment within the government that if the NC participates, elections should proceed, even without the UML participation. However, this could trigger election-related violence, as the UML is likely to retaliate strongly. Compared to others, the UML has already revived its organizational structures from the center down to local levels and is actively mobilizing through street protests.

The third scenario is the government and political parties will agree to postpone the elections by a few months, ensuring participation of all major parties. Under this arrangement, the Karki government may continue, or a new consensus-based government could be formed to announce fresh election dates.

The fourth scenario is neither elections nor Parliament restoration will take place. This would invite deeper chaos and political instability, putting the constitution and the current system at serious risk.

For now, neither the government nor political leaders can completely dismiss the possibility of March 5 elections, nor can they confidently assert that the environment is conducive for holding them. Nepal has held elections amidst uncertainty before—in 2008, 2013, and 2017—and the same may yet happen again.

The number of political parties registered with the Election Commission has now exceeded 125, and the figure is likely to rise further, as the commission is currently reviewing around two dozen new applications. Following the youth-led protests of Sept 8–9, which toppled the major political parties from power, a new wave of actors, — including businessmen, independent politicians, celebrities, and others, have shown interest in entering politics. Since the announcement of elections for March 5, the EC has received 21 applications seeking party registration.

In the 2022 elections, 116 political parties were registered with the commission, though only 87 of them participated. Many of the new parties believe they can gain public support amid growing disillusionment with the mainstream political forces that have held power, in one way or another, since 1990. Their rhetoric is heavily anti-establishment, resonating with the agenda of the current government led by Sushila Karki, whose primary goal appears to be discrediting the traditional political parties.

The youth who led the September protests have also intensified anti-mainstream sentiment, supported by sections of the apolitical elite and intellectuals who feel sidelined by established parties. As a result, the registration of new political parties poses a direct challenge to the traditional political forces, the very targets of the Sept 8–9 violent protests.

However, most of these new parties lack a charismatic leader capable of mobilizing the masses, like Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) chair Rabi Lamichhane did in the 2022 national elections. They also lack the grassroots organizational structures needed to reach rural voters,  a limitation that even RSP faced, as its support base remained largely urban.

Meanwhile, traditional parties have failed to reform or connect with the growing youth population. Leadership change within the major political parties appears unlikely before the next elections. While the new political parties may not emerge as a decisive force, they could still attract portions of Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML voters, as RSP did in 2022.

Harka Sampang, mayor of Dharan Sub-Metropolitan City and a popular independent figure, has registered his own political party to expand his influence beyond Dharan. Known for his unconventional style, such as personally working as a daily-wage laborer in municipal development projects, Sampang has captured national attention through his humor and wit, often going viral on social media. After the September protests, he claimed that the Prime Minister and Nepal Army had invited him for talks. However, it remains unclear whether the army sought to defuse potential unrest involving his supporters or to recognize him as a political stakeholder, with many believing the former to be more likely.

Another prominent figure, Netra Bikram Chand, the Maoist leader who had long opposed the peace process, constitution drafting, and all elections since 2013, has now registered his Nepal Communist Party to contest the upcoming polls. Senior party leader Khadka Bahadur Bishwakarma confirmed their participation. Once an advocate of urban revolt, Chand’s decision marks a notable shift toward electoral politics.

Business circles, too, are entering the political scene. Birendra Bahadur Basnet, the owner of Buddha Air, has registered a new party called the Gatishil Loktantrik Party, chaired by Dinesh Prasai, a Jawaharlal Nehru University graduate. The party reportedly enjoys backing from Kathmandu’s elite circles. Basnet, who has strong media visibility, is expected to contest the elections.

Similarly, Kul Man Ghising, popularly known as the “light man” for ending Nepal’s 15–16-hour daily load-shedding crisis, has helped form a new political party under the leadership of Anup Kumar Upadhyay, a former energy secretary. Although Ghising has not taken any official position within the party, he has long been associated with its formation efforts. He currently serves as a cabinet minister in Sushila Karki’s government, which is mandated to conduct the March 5 elections.

In Nepal’s first parliamentary elections in 1958, only nine political parties participated. The number began rising rapidly after 1990, and especially after the first Constituent Assembly elections in 2008.

Registering a political party in Nepal is not a complicated process. The Political Parties Act requires the signatures of at least 500 Nepali voters, along with letters of commitment for party membership and certified copies of citizenship or voter identity cards.

Over the past three decades, only two parties — the Maoists in 2008 and the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in 2022 — have witnessed sudden and unexpected political success. In the first Constituent Assembly elections, the Maoists emerged as the largest force with a commanding lead over NC and UML. In 2022, RSP won 20 parliamentary seats, while in the same year’s local elections, independent candidate Balendra Shah secured a landslide victory over the NC and UML candidates in Kathmandu.

Now, the political atmosphere once again appears favorable for new entrants. The major parties have been discredited for their failure to curb corruption and ensure good governance. The September 8–9 protests, during which the offices and homes of hundreds of political leaders were torched, have further weakened their standing — creating fertile ground for new political forces to rise.

As Nepal moves toward the March 5 elections, tensions between Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s government and the main opposition, the Communist Party of Nepal–Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), have intensified. What began as a political disagreement has evolved into a full-blown confrontation, with the UML positioning itself as the principal challenger to Karki’s administration.

Nepal’s political landscape has remained volatile since the promulgation of the 2015 Constitution. The three major parties—the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—have oscillated between alliances and rivalries, amid frequent changes of government.

Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal was among the first to claim credit for steering the country away from a constitutional crisis following the turmoil of Sept 8–9. He has since cast himself as both a key supporter and mediator in the formation of the Karki-led government, even declaring early on that elections would be held on March 5.

Over the recent weeks, relations between the UML and the government have deteriorated sharply. PM Karki has reportedly refused to meet top leaders of the major political parties, including Dahal, UML Chair KP Sharma Oli, and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba. At a recent press conference, she allegedly remarked that she “does not want to see the faces” of the three senior leaders, suggesting they should retire and make way for younger politicians.

Her comment provoked strong reactions from both Oli and Dahal, though the latter continues to back the government. Maoist leaders have accused Oli of failing to adapt to changing political realities, while UML leaders have denounced the Karki administration as “unconstitutional.”

In contrast, the Nepali Congress has maintained a cautious stance—neither overtly supporting nor openly opposing the government—choosing to avoid the kind of direct confrontation pursued by the UML.

Two major issues have fueled the government-UML conflict. First, early in her tenure, Prime Minister Karki reportedly held consultations with security agency chiefs regarding the possible arrest of Oli for his alleged role in the deaths of 19 students during the Sept 8 protests. The move infuriated the UML.

Soon after, a probe committee led by Gauri Bahadur Karki—reportedly under government pressure, according to UML leaders—suspended Oli’s passport and restricted his movement outside the Kathmandu Valley. Oli has repeatedly complained that he has been prevented from visiting his burned-down house in Jhapa, allegedly destroyed by protesters.

Meanwhile, Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal’s remarks against UML leaders have further deepened hostilities. UML politburo member Mahesh Basnet has emerged as a leading voice against the government, organizing rallies and public programs that the Home Ministry has condemned as provocative.

At the heart of the dispute lies a clash over the interpretation of the Sept 8–9 protests. The Karki government views the unrest as a “GenZ revolt,” a spontaneous youth uprising born of generational frustration. The UML, however, insists it was a politically motivated conspiracy designed to weaken the party and destabilize the country.

According to UML leaders, GenZ activists withdrew on the afternoon of Sept 8, and the subsequent violence on Sept 9 cannot be considered part of a youth movement. Oli has repeatedly dismissed the term GenZ as “a Western construct irrelevant to Nepal’s socio-political reality.”

The UML has rejected the legitimacy of the Karki government, accusing it of acting unconstitutionally. On Nov 9, Oli alleged that “those who set the country on fire” during the protests are the same individuals now in power. The party has since declared a nationwide protest campaign against what it calls a “repressive and illegitimate regime.”

As the government finalizes preparations for the March 5 elections, the UML is taking to the streets, setting the stage for a high-stakes confrontation. Meanwhile, the Karki administration continues to demand the restoration of Parliament, arguing that only a fresh constitutional mandate can resolve the crisis.

The Nepali Congress (NC), Nepal’s oldest democratic party, finds itself mired in deep internal divisions. Factional rivalries, leadership disputes, and conflicting ambitions have pushed the organization into disarray. As the party grapples with a leadership crisis and intensifying power struggle, questions are mounting over its ability to present a united front and play an effective national role. The chronic intra-party rift has widened further after Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba named Purna Bahadur Khadka as the acting party president.

Deuba is currently in Singapore for treatment after being seriously injured during the Sept 9 protests, when demonstrators attacked him and set his private residence on fire. On two key issues—the party’s general convention and its position on current national affairs—the NC remains undecided. A power struggle has emerged among the party’s second- and third-tier leaders. Senior figures such as Khadka, Bimalendra Nidhi, and Prakash Man Singh are opposing calls to hold the party convention before the March 5 elections, while the reformist camp, led by General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa, is pushing for early elections within the party structure.

The party has splintered into multiple factions, each seeking to consolidate control. As a result, the organization has become a hostage to indecision, fueling fears of an eventual split. Another worrying sign for the party rank and file is the sharp decline in enthusiasm for renewing active membership. According to party insiders, of the roughly 800,000 members, only about 300,000 have renewed their membership so far, a signal of the party’s weakening grassroots presence. The continued infighting among top leaders, according to many, is likely to deepen frustration among the cadres.

NC General Secretary Bishwo Prakash Sharma has argued that a special general convention becomes mandatory if 54 percent of the general convention representatives formally demand it. He emphasized that the immediate issue is not whether the regular convention is held in Mangsir, Poush, or Baisakh, but whether to respond to the written demand of the majority for a special convention.

“The demand for a special general convention can be addressed only in two ways,” he wrote, “either by holding the special general convention itself or by organizing the regular convention within the same timeframe. This must be understood clearly without ifs, buts, or excuses.”

As the party’s Central Working Committee fails to take decisive action, various factions have begun holding separate internal meetings to advance their positions.

Sher Bahadur Deuba, who has led the party since 2016, is not expected to contest for the leadership again. This has set the stage for a fierce contest for the top post. General Secretary Thapa and senior leader Shekhar Koirala have already announced their candidacies for party president, while several other leaders are reportedly preparing to join the race.

Although there is hardly any consensus among the party’s senior leaders, many appear united in their intent to prevent Thapa from securing the presidency. How the internal negotiations unfold remains to be seen. If Thapa and Koirala reach an understanding, they could together secure the leadership. It is also unclear whether all of Deuba’s loyalists will support Khadka as their candidate. The Deuba faction itself is fractured, with some leaders aligning with Koirala and others with Thapa. It also remains uncertain whether Deuba will openly endorse any candidate or remain neutral.

The NC’s internal paralysis is having a direct impact on national politics. The two major parties—CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—have already clarified their positions on recent political developments. The UML maintains that the current government is unconstitutional and that the events of Sept 8–9 represent a regression; it has declared that it will not accept any elections held under Prime Minister Sushila Karki. The Maoist Center, led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, on the other hand, has decided to move ahead with the elections. The Nepali Congress, however, remains undecided. Immediately after the protests, the party had joined others in declaring the formation of the Karki government unconstitutional and in supporting the restoration of Parliament. But since then, its stance has become fragmented.

The leadership vacuum has allowed individual leaders to voice their own positions. General Secretary Thapa and his supporters favor holding elections and are engaging in talks with Prime Minister Karki, while Khadka and other senior leaders have remained silent. Meanwhile, a faction within the party has begun a signature campaign demanding the restoration of Parliament. One top leader commented, “The chances of holding elections appear slim. The only way to save the constitution is by restoring Parliament.”

NC leader Prakash Sharan Mahat has argued that the party should focus on addressing the national crisis instead of being consumed by internal disputes. “There has been no meaningful discussion on the national agenda, and that is unfortunate,” he said. “We should have been debating the causes of the crisis, possible solutions, and the party’s leadership role, but that has not happened.”

As Nepal moves toward the March 5 elections, tensions between Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s government and the main opposition, the Communist Party of Nepal–Unified MarxistLeninist (CPN-UML), have intensified. What began as political disagreement has evolved into a full-blown confrontation, with the UML positioning itself as the principal challenger to Karki’s administration.

Nepal’s political environment remains volatile since the promulgation of the new constitution in 2015. The three major parties—the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—have alternated between alliances and rivalries amid frequent government changes.
 

Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) was among the first to claim credit for saving the country from a constitutional crisis after the turmoil of September 8–9. He has since positioned himself as a key supporter and negotiator in the formation of the Karki-led government, even announcing early on that elections would be held on March 5.

Over the past few weeks, the relationship between the UML and the government has deteriorated sharply. PM Karki has reportedly refused to meet top leaders of the major political parties, including Dahal, UML Chair KP Sharma Oli, and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba. At a recent press conference, she allegedly remarked that she “does not want to see the faces” of the three senior leaders, suggesting they should retire and make way for younger politicians.

This statement provoked strong reactions from both Oli and Dahal, though the latter remains broadly supportive of the government. Maoist leaders have accused Oli of failing to adapt to changing political realities, while UML leaders have denounced the Karki administration as “unconstitutional.”

In contrast, the Nepali Congress has maintained a cautious stance—neither overtly supporting nor openly criticizing the government—choosing to avoid the kind of direct confrontation pursued by the UML.

Two major issues have fueled the government-UML conflict. First, early in her tenure, PM Karki reportedly held consultations with security agency chiefs regarding the possible arrest of KP Sharma Oli over his alleged responsibility for the deaths of 19 students during the September 8 protests. The move infuriated the UML.

Soon afterward, a probe committee led by Gauri Bahadur Karki—under government pressure, according to UML leaders—suspended Oli’s passport and restricted his movement outside the Kathmandu Valley. Oli has repeatedly complained that he has been prevented from visiting his burned-down house in Jhapa, allegedly destroyed by protesters.

Meanwhile, Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal’s sharp remarks against UML leaders have further deepened hostilities. UML politburo member Mahesh Basnet has emerged as a leading voice against the government, organizing rallies and public programs that the Home Ministry has condemned as provocative.

At the heart of the dispute lies the contrasting interpretation of the September 8–9 protests.
The Karki government views the unrest as a “Gen-Z revolt”, a spontaneous youth uprising reflecting generational frustration. The UML, however, insists it was a political conspiracy aimed at undermining the party and destabilizing the country.

According to UML leaders, Gen-Z activists withdrew on the afternoon of September 8, and the subsequent violence on September 9 cannot be considered part of a youth movement. Oli has repeatedly dismissed the term Gen-Z, calling it “a western construct irrelevant to Nepal’s socio-political reality.”

UML has rejected the legitimacy of the Karki-led government, accusing it of acting unconstitutionally. On November 9, Oli alleged that “those who set the country on fire” during the protests are the same individuals now in power. The UML has declared a nationwide protest campaign, from grassroots mobilization to mass demonstrations in Kathmandu, to challenge what it calls a “repressive and illegitimate regime.”

As the government finalizes preparations for the March 5 elections, the UML is mobilizing on the streets, setting the stage for a high-stakes showdown. Meanwhile, the Karki administration has demanded the restoration of Parliament to establish what it calls a legitimate constitutional mandate.

The Supreme Court  has begun preliminary hearings on more than a dozen writ petitions challenging the formation of the interim government led by Sushila Karki and her subsequent decision to dissolve the House of Representatives (HoR) before the end of its term.

The Constitutional Bench of the Supreme Court will hear a total of 16 writ petitions. Chief Justice Prakash Man Singh Raut has already given his consent to forward all cases to the bench. The petitioners have argued that Karki’s appointment as interim prime minister is unconstitutional, as Nepal’s 2015 Constitution does not allow non-members of Parliament to assume the prime ministerial position.

Furthermore, while appointing her as prime minister, no specific constitutional article was cited. The Office of the President has argued that Karki was appointed under Article 61 of the Constitution, which relates to the president’s duty to safeguard the Constitution. However, in 2015, all provisions related to the formation of government were clearly outlined under Article 76. Karki was appointed interim head following the GenZ protests on Sept 12.

Another argument raised by the petitioners concerns Article 132(2) of the Constitution. Lawyers Bipana Sharma and Ayush Badal contend that a former chief justice cannot hold any government office except within the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC). Article 132(2) states: “No person who has once held the office of Chief Justice or a Judge of the Supreme Court shall be eligible for appointment to any government office, except as otherwise provided in this Constitution.”

This means that, except for roles in the NHRC, former chief justices and Supreme Court judges cannot assume any other government positions. However, those in power argue that the current government emerged from the GenZ revolution, and therefore, its constitutionality and legality should not be judged through the lens of “normal times.”

Nepal had faced a similar situation in 2013, when then–Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi led an interim government. His appointment was also challenged in the Supreme Court, but the court delayed its hearing until after Regmi stepped down upon completing the elections. Later, Supreme Court judges were divided over the verdict. Interestingly, current Prime Minister Karki, who at the time was serving as a senior justice, had expressed that Regmi’s appointment went against the spirit of the interim constitution. Now, legal observers are keen to see how Karki will defend her own appointment.

Karki faces three major constitutional challenges: A non-parliamentarian assuming the office of prime minister; the lack of any cited constitutional article in her appointment by President Ramchandra Paudel; and the restriction under Article 132(2), which bars former justices from holding government office.

Similarly, several writs have been filed against the dissolution of the House of Representatives. Shortly after taking office, Karki recommended to President Poudel that Parliament be dissolved. Reports suggest that Karki believed she could only serve as prime minister after Parliament’s dissolution. Media sources also claim she faced pressure from Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah to dissolve Parliament immediately. Legal experts, however, argue that Karki’s appointment was justified under the “doctrine of necessity.”

Still, constitutional experts point out that, under Article 76(7), the prime minister can recommend dissolution of Parliament only after all attempts to form a new government have failed. On this very basis, the Supreme Court in 2020 and 2021 had reinstated the Parliament dissolved by then Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, ruling that the House could still produce a new government. The current House of Representatives, elected in 2022, is set to complete its term in 2027.

As the Supreme Court prepares to begin hearings on the 16 petitions, the prospects of the March 5 elections look increasingly uncertain. Dialogue between the government and political parties has begun, but it has not helped rebuild trust. Political leaders continue to raise concerns about security, saying they still fear openly holding meetings and rallies. Nepal Police has yet to recover the 1,200 weapons looted during the Sept 9 protests, and more than 4,000 escaped inmates remain at large and reportedly involved in criminal activities.

Party leaders claim they are still receiving threats. In this context, if elections do not take place on March 5, the interim government may lose its legitimacy, creating a new political vacuum. Senior leaders of the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML argue that the only way to preserve the current Constitution is for the Supreme Court to reinstate Parliament.

They contend that restoring Parliament would provide a legitimate institution to address the demands of the GenZ protesters, including ending corruption, ensuring systemic reform, and curbing nepotism. NC and UML leaders also say that, as their party offices have been destroyed and many leaders have lost their homes, the current environment is not conducive to holding elections.

Devraj Ghimire, Speaker of the dissolved House of Representatives, is also strongly advocating for Parliament’s restoration. He is currently consulting with legal experts to create a constitutional and political pathway for the reinstatement of the House.