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The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) is preparing to hold its general convention on Dec 13–15 to elect a new leadership. The CPN-UML’s  internal dynamics are especially tense this year, as incumbent Chairperson KP Sharma Oli, who has been politically shaken by the recent GenZ movement, is seeking a third consecutive term. Though Oli had signaled before Sept 8–9 protests that he would lead the party for another five years, the large-scale demonstrations and the killing of 19 youths has severely dented his standing both inside and outside the party.

A number of senior UML leaders have urged Oli to retire from the party chairmanship, arguing that he should take moral responsibility for the deaths that occurred under his premiership. Yet, Oli remains defiant. He insists that he was removed from government not because of his governance failures, but because of his uncompromising “nationalist stance.” This claim once again reveals a familiar pattern: Oli’s consistent use of nationalism as a political tool to consolidate his power, deflect criticism and project himself as a defender of Nepal’s sovereignty. Inside the communist party, there is a tendency to create real, perceived or even fabricated enemies in order to convince cadres that they should focus on fighting these threats rather than questioning or changing the leadership. This is exactly what KP Oli is doing right now.

Oli’s nationalism card

‘Nationalism’ has long been a potent currency in Nepali politics, especially within communist parties, which frequently frame internal dissent as externally manipulated. After joining mainstream politics, it was Maoist Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal successfully weaponized ‘nationalism.’ When challenged by senior leader Baburam Bhattarai, Dahal often accused him of being influenced by foreign actors, particularly India. After losing power in 2008, Dahal blamed India for orchestrating his downfall and launched a political campaign centered on “national independence.” This narrative helped him maintain his grip on the Maoist party at a time when his leadership was under pressure.

Oli has followed a similar path since coming to power after 2015. He rose to national prominence during the 2015 Indian blockade, portraying himself as a staunch nationalist resisting external interference. His government’s issuance of a new political map of Nepal in 2020 further cemented his image as a leader willing to challenge powerful neighbors.

Internal challenge

For this year’s General Convention, Oli faces a more organized challenger than in previous conventions. His deputy, Ishwar Pokhrel, backed strongly by former President Bidya Devi Bhandari, has announced his candidacy for party chairman. Pokhrel’s camp is significantly stronger than in the 2021 convention, making him the first genuinely competitive candidate against Oli in years. Predictably, Oli’s supporters have begun portraying Pokhrel’s challenge as influenced by external forces. Such accusations are not new: within Nepal’s communist parties, labeling rivals as “foreign agents” is practically a political tradition.  A Facebook post by Shankar Pokhrel on Nov 29, for example, stated: “The country is in crisis, and attacks on nationalist forces continue. In such a situation, firmness in policy and unity in leadership are essential. Let’s move forward—it is possible.”The subtext of the statement is clear: in the name of national unity, Ishwar Pokhrel should withdraw and support Oli. This framing aligns perfectly with the longstanding internal communist practice of marginalizing opponents by presenting them as threats to national interests.

GenZ protests and ‘foreign ploy’

The GenZ protests shook Nepal’s political establishment as thousands of young took to the streets against corruption, unemployment and political stagnation. Instead of acknowledging the domestic roots of the unrest, Oli and his loyalists characterized the protests as foreign-orchestrated, drawing parallels with color revolutions in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Oli has repeatedly argued that his government was targeted by foreign powers because of his policies in favor of nationalism, such as signing the BRI with China. This narrative implies that the protests were an attempt on the part of Western powers ‘to punish him and destabilize the UML.’

Oli’s belief that the GenZ uprising was externally orchestrated rests mostly on rumors and unverified reports. Most Nepalis view the movement as a spontaneous expression of frustration with political instability, chronic corruption and the failure of leaders to deliver meaningful reforms. The attempt to reduce a youth-led domestic uprising to foreign interference seems increasingly detached from public sentiment.

Social media ban and nationalism

One of the major triggers of the GenZ movement was the Oli government’s decision to ban several social media platforms for not registering in Nepal. Oli attempted to justify the move by claiming that these platforms violated Nepal’s sovereignty and refused to comply with national laws. This explanation, framed once again through the lens of nationalism, did little to placate widespread anger. 

Oli’s public defense of controversial businessman Durga Prasai, arrested for inflammatory remarks, further underscored his reliance on the nationalism narrative. Prasai had released a video claiming that Western-funded NGOs were behind the GenZ protests, echoing Oli’s larger narrative of foreign interference. By siding with Prasai, Oli signaled once again that he sees political advantage in promoting the idea of a foreign conspiracy.

Will ‘nationalism’ work again?

UML leaders often boast that their party alone does not compromise on matters of national interest. In previous elections, this rhetoric helped Oli galvanize public support. But this time, the situation appears different. Oli has been raising the issue of foreign intervention behind the GenZ movement for more than two months, yet the narrative has gained little traction. Public sentiment has shifted. Nepalis today are more concerned about corruption, unemployment, inflation and the failure of political leaders to govern effectively. The idea that Nepal’s problems stem from foreign meddling, rather than deep-rooted internal dysfunction, no longer convinces many.  Inside the UML, too, Oli’s nationalist rhetoric appears to be losing its persuasive power. The party rank-and-file recognizes that nationalism has become a convenient cover for resisting internal reforms and maintaining control. With rising dissatisfaction in the organization and the emergence of stronger rival factions, Oli’s grip on the party is not as secure as it once was.

Conclusion

KP Sharma Oli’s use of the term ‘nationalism’ has been a key part of his political identity for nearly a decade. It helped him rise to power, survive internal challenges and present himself as the champion of Nepali sovereignty. But political landscapes evolve, and public patience has limits. Today, with a frustrated younger generation, intensifying intra-party competition, and declining faith in political theatrics, Oli’s nationalism card appears increasingly exhausted. Whether it will still work at the upcoming General Convention remains uncertain, but all signs suggest that its effectiveness is rapidly waning.

The prospect of the March 5 elections has slightly improved. The CPN-UML, which had long emphasized parliament restoration over elections, has now registered its party for electoral purposes, sending a positive signal across the political landscape.

At the same time, however, UML has filed a writ at the Supreme Court demanding the restoration of parliament. This move is unusual, as the party itself is petitioning the court. The Supreme Court has already received more than a dozen writs calling for the restoration of parliament.

Yet questions remain about whether UML will fully commit to the elections, as it continues raising concerns about the constitutionality of the government. UML’s decision was influenced by the Nepali Congress’ announcement that it would participate in the polls. Other fringe parties had already begun preparations. At this point, very few parties openly oppose holding elections.

Although the countdown to March 5 has begun, major parties have not clarified their positions on potential electoral alliances. Since 2017, alliances have become the norm in Nepali politics. Madhes-based parties and newer fringe groups are already exploring alliances, but major parties remain conspicuously silent.

Compounding this uncertainty, there have been no recent meetings among major political leaders. The animosity between UML and Nepali Communist Party coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal continues. Oli has publicly accused Dahal of engineering the Sept 8–9 protests, while Dahal blames Oli’s governance failures for the unrest.

Meanwhile, the number of political parties preparing to participate in the polls is likely to increase substantially. The GenZ movement has spawned numerous new parties. The number of parties registered at the Election Commission for election purposes has already reached 106, up from 82 in the previous election.

With the EC extending the registration deadline by four days, the count is expected to grow further. As of Nov 27, the total number of registered political parties stands at 137. If more of these parties win seats, the new parliament could become even more fractured, increasing the risk of political instability.

On the logistical front, both the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Election Commission are preparing intensively for the March 5 polls. The National Security Council has recommended mobilizing the Nepal Army for election security, and the government has begun recruiting temporary police. For election logistics, the government is planning vehicle purchases, while India and China have pledged additional support.

New parties formed after the GenZ movement are also exploring alliances aimed at challenging traditional forces. Some are even considering unification. The Rastriya Swatantra Party has already decided to merge with the Bibeksheel Party and is reaching out to other “alternative forces.”

Inside the UML, a new development is unfolding. Senior leader Ishwar Pokhrel has announced he will challenge KP Sharma Oli for the party leadership at the upcoming general convention on Dec 13–14. Although Oli retains strong control within the party, many leaders are pressuring him to step aside. Pokhrel is widely viewed as a proxy for former President Bidya Devi Bhandari. Fearing monopolization of the selection of convention representatives, Bhandari has urged the Oli faction to adopt a balanced approach.

The intra-party conflict in the Nepali Congress is also intensifying. One faction insists on holding a special convention to elect new leadership, while the establishment faction argues that, with elections only 100 days away, such a convention is impossible. There are growing fears of a potential split, though it remains unlikely. General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa has publicly declared that the party will not contest the elections under Deuba’s leadership.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal, meanwhile, continues to welcome splinter groups from other parties. On Nov 27, four groups from various parties joined the Nepali Communist Party. As election day nears, politicians from smaller groups are increasingly joining larger parties in search of tickets and better prospects. Dahal is portraying this as “a major unification of the communist forces.”

The commission led by Gauri Bahadur Karki, tasked with investigating the Sept  8–9 protests, is facing challenges handling high-profile political figures. Oli has openly questioned the commission’s legitimacy and repeatedly said he will not cooperate. The Nepal Army has responded to written queries but declined to appear in person. With only a three-month mandate, and limited cooperation, completing the investigation on time appears difficult.

As the commission proceeds, Nepal Police have arrested around 515 individuals on charges of arson and vandalism during the GenZ movement. Cases have been filed against 267 of them. Although Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal was initially against mass arrests, police pressure led to action. Meanwhile, 9,697 inmates who escaped during the movement remain at large.

While tensions between the government and political parties have eased somewhat, friction between GenZ groups and the government is rising. Some GenZ groups have protested appointments in Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s cabinet. The government is working to sign an agreement with GenZ groups to legitimize the September protests, but political parties have not been consulted. GenZ groups are pushing for a quick agreement to avoid potential prosecution by a new post-election government.

Most members of the international community appear supportive of holding elections on March 5. They view the polls as essential for putting the country back on the constitutional track. Two senior diplomats I spoke with this week said they are encouraging both the government and political parties not to postpone the elections, warning that any delay could create further uncertainty in Nepal.

The CPN-UML, the second largest party in the dissolved House of Representatives, appears to have a two-pronged strategy in a fluid political context as two recent moves of the party indicate.    

Mahesh Bartauala, chief whip of the UML parliamentary party in the dissolved House of Representatives (HoR), and Sunita Baral have filed a writ at the Supreme Court seeking reinstatement of the HoR. 

At the same time, the CPN-UML has registered itself at the Election Commission, making it clear that it is ready to contest the HoR elections slated for March 5 next year. 

Niraj Acharya, head of the party’s Election Department, and Office Secretary Bhishma Adhikari submitted the party registration application at the Election Commission, becoming the 66th registered party vying for the polls. 

After the registration, department Head Acharya said that UML is a party that completes all legal procedures for every type of election, and therefore the party has been registered accordingly.

The deadline for registering political parties for the HoR elections is until Mangsir 10 (Nov 26). 

According to Bartauala, the UML has moved the court seeking the reinstatement of the House of Representatives on the following counts.

1. Since Sushila Karki, a retired chief justice, is neither a member of the House of Representatives nor does she enjoy support from the parliamentary party of any political party for premiership, her appointment as Prime Minister is unconstitutional and in violation of Articles 76 and 132(2) of the Constitution. Therefore, the court should issue an order of certiorari against her appointment as PM.

2. The court should quash the Sept 12 decision of the President to appoint Sushila Karki as the PM, the swearing-in conducted on that basis and all other relevant appointments, along with all other illegal and unconstitutional actions, decisions and appointments. 

3. The presidential decision to dissolve the HoR, made on Sept 12 on the recommendation of PM Karki, should be quashed and the HoR reinstated. All state bodies and institutions that existed on that date should continue to function like they did before, and an order of mandamus should be issued in the name of respondents.

4. The court should issue a mandamus order to the President to begin the process of forming a new government in accordance with Article 76 of the Constitution.

5. It should issue a mandamus order to the Speaker and the Parliament Secretariat to make necessary arrangements for convening the session of the reinstated HoR.

6. After the reinstatement of the HoR, the court should issue an order of prohibition directing the government constituted unconstitutionally to halt all activities related to the HoR elections.

7. Considering the seriousness and sensitivity of the subject matter, this petition needs to be decided promptly. The respondents should be ordered to submit their written replies, and a continuous hearing conducted by fixing a date for the hearing.

Nepali Congress is yet to resolve the general convention issue that has gripped the party for more than two months. While General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa remains determined to hold the convention before the elections, fears of a possible party split continue to grow. If a special general convention is held as demanded by 54 convention representatives, the likelihood of a split cannot be ruled out.

Initially, party president Sher Bahadur Deuba appeared positive about holding the convention before the elections. However, after returning from Singapore where he underwent treatment, his stance has noticeably hardened. Meanwhile, around half a dozen senior leaders have begun openly criticizing Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma for creating troubles within the party. Amid these tensions, the NC is failing to articulate a clear position on the elections.

In an effort to find a way out, Thapa and senior leader Shekhar Koirala held consultations this week. Still, due to ongoing disagreements over the convention, the Central Working Committee meeting has once again been postponed until Saturday. Despite several rounds of talks between Deuba and Thapa, no breakthrough has emerged.

As intra-party uncertainty persists, the broader election atmosphere remains unsettled. Yet Prime Minister Sushila Karki has sounded increasingly confident about holding elections on schedule. Responding to CPN-UML’s demand for parliament restoration, she warned that attempts to revive Parliament could complicate the situation further. In a pointed message to UML, she said: “Even after the election has been announced, the confusion seen on the sidelines of politics within some parties, the demand for the reinstatement of Parliament, and the act of questioning the legitimacy of the government could once again push the nation into a cycle of instability… If one now chooses to take a stance in favor of reinstating Parliament, it only confirms an attempt to repeat the political mishap of the past.”

On Nov 19, Karki held discussions with representatives of the 125 political parties registered with the Election Commission, attempting to reassure them that elections will take place on time. Nevertheless, UML has officially decided to file cases at the Supreme Court demanding Parliament’s restoration.

Amid the legislative vacuum, the government is preparing to issue ordinances to ease appointments to constitutional bodies without parliamentary hearings. However, if the President endorses these ordinances, they are likely to draw widespread criticism, and may face legal challenges.

Adding to the volatility, the clash between GenZ protesters and UML cadres in Bara district marks a serious development. It comes at a time when political parties are already expressing concerns over the security environment for the elections. Many fear that similar incidents could escalate during the campaign period. In this context, a group led by Sudan Gurung is demanding the resignation of Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal and calling for the arrest of former prime minister KP Sharma Oli. Meanwhile, UML is preparing to stage large-scale protests in Kathmandu.

Parallel to this, efforts are underway to formalize a document between the government and various GenZ groups to institutionalize the Sept 8-9 protests. Around 40 GenZ groups have submitted demands to the government. While the current government, which rose to power on the wave of those protests, supports legitimizing the movement, major political parties continue to resist the idea.

Within UML, internal tensions are also intensifying. Chairman Oli has dismissed the possibility of handing over leadership to new leaders, even blocking former president Bidya Devi Bhandari’s potential return by scrapping her membership. Yet Bhandari’s influence remains significant. Senior leader Ishwar Pokharel, who enjoys her backing, is preparing to challenge Oli in the upcoming general convention. Bhandari has been actively meeting UML leaders who favor a leadership change.

Similarly, UML leader Yogesh Bhattarai has grown increasingly vocal about the need for new leadership. Several senior leaders fear the party will face major losses if it contests elections under Oli’s stewardship.

In the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), instability is also deepening. High-profile leaders Sumana Shrestha and Santosh Pariyar have already left, and reports suggest others may follow. The party’s push to secure the release of its chairman Rabi Lamichhane has been unsuccessful, and in his absence, leadership disputes have intensified. Although the GenZ movement was expected to strengthen the party, internal conflict has instead weakened it further.

On the law-and-order front, the government has arrested controversial businessman Durga Prasai on charges of disrupting public order. Prasai, now a vocal proponent of monarchy and a Hindu state, had been preparing to launch street protests. Several leaders have called for his release, citing freedom of speech. A video he released, claiming Prime Minister Karki was behind the GenZ movement, has since gone viral.

Meanwhile, Netra Bikram Chand has formally registered his political party, CPN (Maoist), at the Election Commission. Unlike Pushpa Kamal Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center),  Chand has retained his Maoist ideological line. He had previously split from Dahal in 2012 alongside Mohan Baidya.

Despite the political turbulence, the Election Commission has begun preparations for the March 5 elections. It has called on parties to register themselves in order to participate.

Internationally, Nepal maintained a low-profile presence at this year’s UN climate change conference (COP), represented only at the ministerial level and with minimal civil society participation. As usual, Nepal emphasized issues related to climate justice.

China is recalibrating its Nepal policy in the aftermath of the GenZ protests that caught Beijing off guard. The demonstrations and widespread arson—unprecedented in scale—forced several countries, including China, to urgently evacuate their officials and citizens from Nepal.

Since the protests, Nepal-China relations have noticeably slowed. While other major countries such as India, the US, Japan, and members of the European Union have already resumed full engagement with the new government at multiple levels, interaction between Nepal and China has remained limited.

In the early days of the unrest, Beijing was particularly concerned about its security interests in Nepal. The fall of the KP Sharma Oli-led government was a troubling development for China. Until the Sept 8–9 protests, bilateral ties were progressing steadily. Just beforehand, China had invited Oli to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, where Nepal is a dialogue partner. Oli met President Xi Jinping on the sidelines, took part in China’s Victory Day parade, and earlier had signed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement during an official visit, an outcome that had energized Beijing’s engagement with Kathmandu. China was also preparing a five-year cooperation plan with Nepal and expanding support in agriculture, health, and other sectors. Its engagement with Nepali political parties, including the Nepali Congress, was also deepening.

The GenZ movement, however, appears to have triggered new anxieties in Beijing. Media reports alleging the involvement of Tibetan Original Blood (TOB) raised concerns about external influence. Some left-leaning political leaders further fueled this by suggesting geopolitical motives behind the protests. Additional reports that the government was considering appointing youth leaders allegedly close to the Dalai Lama heightened Beijing’s unease.

Compounding these tensions, the Sushila Karki-led transitional government decided to recall Nepal’s Ambassador to China, Krishna Prasad Oli, who is close to the dismissed prime minister Oli. It did not, however, recall the Ambassador to India, Shankar Sharma. China’s displeasure was evident: notably, the Chinese premier did not send a congratulatory message to Prime Minister Karki, an unprecedented break from diplomatic tradition.

Amid this uncertainty, China moved quickly to protect what it views as its security interests. Ambassador Chen Song raised concerns with top Nepali officials, including Prime Minister Karki and senior officials at the Foreign Ministry. They assured Beijing that the new government remains fully committed to the One-China policy, as previous governments had been.

Chinese officials were encouraged by support from Nepali political leaders, the public, and sections of the media who echoed China’s concerns. In a recent meeting with journalists, Ambassador Chen Song said: “The current government’s commitment to the One-China principle is not less than that of the previous government.”

With these assurances, Beijing’s immediate worries appear to have eased, though several Chinese delegations have since arrived in Nepal to assess the situation firsthand.

Regarding the GenZ movement and upcoming elections, Ambassador Chen has conveyed to Nepali leaders that China will not interfere in domestic political affairs and respects decisions made by the Nepali people. At the same time, Beijing has pledged support for Nepal’s reconstruction and electoral processes.

However, China does not appear optimistic about achieving tangible progress under the interim government, particularly on BRI-related initiatives. Although China continues to work on BRI projects from its side, meaningful progress remains unlikely. Many of the 10 selected projects are seen as unproductive, shaped largely by the political interests of major parties. Still, China’s growing engagement in Nepal’s health and education sectors is expected to continue.

The GenZ protests have also affected tourism cooperation. China had declared 2025 as Nepal Visit Year, but Chinese tourist numbers have sharply declined. Before the protests, the two countries were deepening collaboration on tourism promotion, but the political upheaval has significantly disrupted momentum, and officials expect a further drop in Chinese arrivals in the coming months.

For now, China’s approach appears to be maintaining a working relationship with the Karki administration, prioritising the protection of its core interests while keeping expectations low on broader bilateral progress.

Will the election take place on March 5 as announced by the government? It depends on whom you ask. If you ask ministers and government officials, they insist it will definitely happen.

If you speak with representatives of political parties, you get a mixed response. Many leaders of the CPN-UML reject outright the possibility of elections on March 5, arguing that the current government has no intention of holding them. The Nepali Congress does not oppose elections, but the party remains divided internally. Meanwhile, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal was the first among major parties to validate this government and publicly commit to supporting the elections.

Meanwhile, the GenZ groups, which are split into more than 40 factions, also remain divided. However, they share one common position: before holding elections, there must be an agreement between them and the government on institutionalizing the GenZ movement. Many groups are even refusing to participate, saying that joining elections without laying the groundwork for systemic change would be meaningless.

The international community is broadly in favor of holding the elections on time, emphasizing that they must be free and fair with a level playing field for all actors. Nepal’s neighbors, India and China, also support early elections, believing they will bring relative stability to Nepal. However, China stresses that major political parties must participate. UN Office in Kathmandu is in consultations with 

Kathmandu-based Ambassadors to make a common position on Nepal’s election.. 

Both the government and the Election Commission (EC) are pressing ahead with preparations. In a recent meeting with civil society leaders, Prime Minister Sushila Karki sounded confident that elections will take place, now only three months and nineteen days away. Government ministers and officials remain optimistic.

Security remains a key concern for the March 5 elections. The government says it is preparing a full-fledged security plan, seeking an increased role for the Nepali Army in the integrated security arrangement being drafted by the Ministry of Home Affairs. Regarding police logistics, officials say Nepal has already written to India and China seeking support, and they expect necessary supplies to arrive soon. Preparations are also underway to recruit temporary police personnel for the election period.

The EC is making all required preparations. The voter-list update is underway, with around 300,000 new voters already added. The EC has published the detailed election schedule, with nominations for both First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) and Proportional Representation (PR) beginning on Jan 20. Party registration is also ongoing. However, substantial dialogue between the government and political parties to create a conducive environment is lacking, though PM Karki is in regular contact with second-tier leaders of major parties.

The second-largest party, CPN-UML, rejects the possibility of elections entirely, claiming that the government intends to extend its tenure by repeatedly postponing elections, similar to what happened in Bangladesh. The UML is in talks with the Nepali Congress to forge a common position. The party argues that both should press for the restoration of Parliament, on which the Supreme Court has already begun hearings. The UML has rejected both the current government and the GenZ movement, insisting that all political processes, including elections, should begin only after Parliament is restored. Its dissolved parliament members are meeting daily. At the same time, Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire, also from UML, has strongly endorsed holding elections.

The Nepali Congress is embroiled in internal conflict tied directly to the elections. General Secretary Gagan Thapa wants the party to elect new leadership through a general convention before going to polls, while leaders aligned with Sher Bahadur Deuba want to hold the convention only after the elections. If elections are indeed happening on March 5, the NC is running out of time to organize its convention. There is, however, a strong sentiment within the party that it should participate in the elections to bring the constitution back on track.

CPN (Maoist Center) leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who initially sounded confident about the elections, has gradually shifted his stance and now says that political consensus is needed before moving ahead.

Amid such uncertainty, what are the possible scenarios for Nepal? The first scenario is the elections will take place on March 5 with participation from all political parties, including the UML. This is the ideal situation. If this happens, it would likely steer the country back onto the constitutional path and reduce internal party conflicts. The outcome could be the rise of new political forces, weakening the dominance of major parties like the NC, UML, and Maoists.

The second scenario is that the elections will be held without CPN-UML’s participation. This is possible, as there is sentiment within the government that if the NC participates, elections should proceed, even without the UML participation. However, this could trigger election-related violence, as the UML is likely to retaliate strongly. Compared to others, the UML has already revived its organizational structures from the center down to local levels and is actively mobilizing through street protests.

The third scenario is the government and political parties will agree to postpone the elections by a few months, ensuring participation of all major parties. Under this arrangement, the Karki government may continue, or a new consensus-based government could be formed to announce fresh election dates.

The fourth scenario is neither elections nor Parliament restoration will take place. This would invite deeper chaos and political instability, putting the constitution and the current system at serious risk.

For now, neither the government nor political leaders can completely dismiss the possibility of March 5 elections, nor can they confidently assert that the environment is conducive for holding them. Nepal has held elections amidst uncertainty before—in 2008, 2013, and 2017—and the same may yet happen again.

The number of political parties registered with the Election Commission has now exceeded 125, and the figure is likely to rise further, as the commission is currently reviewing around two dozen new applications. Following the youth-led protests of Sept 8–9, which toppled the major political parties from power, a new wave of actors, — including businessmen, independent politicians, celebrities, and others, have shown interest in entering politics. Since the announcement of elections for March 5, the EC has received 21 applications seeking party registration.

In the 2022 elections, 116 political parties were registered with the commission, though only 87 of them participated. Many of the new parties believe they can gain public support amid growing disillusionment with the mainstream political forces that have held power, in one way or another, since 1990. Their rhetoric is heavily anti-establishment, resonating with the agenda of the current government led by Sushila Karki, whose primary goal appears to be discrediting the traditional political parties.

The youth who led the September protests have also intensified anti-mainstream sentiment, supported by sections of the apolitical elite and intellectuals who feel sidelined by established parties. As a result, the registration of new political parties poses a direct challenge to the traditional political forces, the very targets of the Sept 8–9 violent protests.

However, most of these new parties lack a charismatic leader capable of mobilizing the masses, like Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) chair Rabi Lamichhane did in the 2022 national elections. They also lack the grassroots organizational structures needed to reach rural voters,  a limitation that even RSP faced, as its support base remained largely urban.

Meanwhile, traditional parties have failed to reform or connect with the growing youth population. Leadership change within the major political parties appears unlikely before the next elections. While the new political parties may not emerge as a decisive force, they could still attract portions of Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML voters, as RSP did in 2022.

Harka Sampang, mayor of Dharan Sub-Metropolitan City and a popular independent figure, has registered his own political party to expand his influence beyond Dharan. Known for his unconventional style, such as personally working as a daily-wage laborer in municipal development projects, Sampang has captured national attention through his humor and wit, often going viral on social media. After the September protests, he claimed that the Prime Minister and Nepal Army had invited him for talks. However, it remains unclear whether the army sought to defuse potential unrest involving his supporters or to recognize him as a political stakeholder, with many believing the former to be more likely.

Another prominent figure, Netra Bikram Chand, the Maoist leader who had long opposed the peace process, constitution drafting, and all elections since 2013, has now registered his Nepal Communist Party to contest the upcoming polls. Senior party leader Khadka Bahadur Bishwakarma confirmed their participation. Once an advocate of urban revolt, Chand’s decision marks a notable shift toward electoral politics.

Business circles, too, are entering the political scene. Birendra Bahadur Basnet, the owner of Buddha Air, has registered a new party called the Gatishil Loktantrik Party, chaired by Dinesh Prasai, a Jawaharlal Nehru University graduate. The party reportedly enjoys backing from Kathmandu’s elite circles. Basnet, who has strong media visibility, is expected to contest the elections.

Similarly, Kul Man Ghising, popularly known as the “light man” for ending Nepal’s 15–16-hour daily load-shedding crisis, has helped form a new political party under the leadership of Anup Kumar Upadhyay, a former energy secretary. Although Ghising has not taken any official position within the party, he has long been associated with its formation efforts. He currently serves as a cabinet minister in Sushila Karki’s government, which is mandated to conduct the March 5 elections.

In Nepal’s first parliamentary elections in 1958, only nine political parties participated. The number began rising rapidly after 1990, and especially after the first Constituent Assembly elections in 2008.

Registering a political party in Nepal is not a complicated process. The Political Parties Act requires the signatures of at least 500 Nepali voters, along with letters of commitment for party membership and certified copies of citizenship or voter identity cards.

Over the past three decades, only two parties — the Maoists in 2008 and the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in 2022 — have witnessed sudden and unexpected political success. In the first Constituent Assembly elections, the Maoists emerged as the largest force with a commanding lead over NC and UML. In 2022, RSP won 20 parliamentary seats, while in the same year’s local elections, independent candidate Balendra Shah secured a landslide victory over the NC and UML candidates in Kathmandu.

Now, the political atmosphere once again appears favorable for new entrants. The major parties have been discredited for their failure to curb corruption and ensure good governance. The September 8–9 protests, during which the offices and homes of hundreds of political leaders were torched, have further weakened their standing — creating fertile ground for new political forces to rise.

As Nepal moves toward the March 5 elections, tensions between Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s government and the main opposition, the Communist Party of Nepal–Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), have intensified. What began as a political disagreement has evolved into a full-blown confrontation, with the UML positioning itself as the principal challenger to Karki’s administration.

Nepal’s political landscape has remained volatile since the promulgation of the 2015 Constitution. The three major parties—the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—have oscillated between alliances and rivalries, amid frequent changes of government.

Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal was among the first to claim credit for steering the country away from a constitutional crisis following the turmoil of Sept 8–9. He has since cast himself as both a key supporter and mediator in the formation of the Karki-led government, even declaring early on that elections would be held on March 5.

Over the recent weeks, relations between the UML and the government have deteriorated sharply. PM Karki has reportedly refused to meet top leaders of the major political parties, including Dahal, UML Chair KP Sharma Oli, and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba. At a recent press conference, she allegedly remarked that she “does not want to see the faces” of the three senior leaders, suggesting they should retire and make way for younger politicians.

Her comment provoked strong reactions from both Oli and Dahal, though the latter continues to back the government. Maoist leaders have accused Oli of failing to adapt to changing political realities, while UML leaders have denounced the Karki administration as “unconstitutional.”

In contrast, the Nepali Congress has maintained a cautious stance—neither overtly supporting nor openly opposing the government—choosing to avoid the kind of direct confrontation pursued by the UML.

Two major issues have fueled the government-UML conflict. First, early in her tenure, Prime Minister Karki reportedly held consultations with security agency chiefs regarding the possible arrest of Oli for his alleged role in the deaths of 19 students during the Sept 8 protests. The move infuriated the UML.

Soon after, a probe committee led by Gauri Bahadur Karki—reportedly under government pressure, according to UML leaders—suspended Oli’s passport and restricted his movement outside the Kathmandu Valley. Oli has repeatedly complained that he has been prevented from visiting his burned-down house in Jhapa, allegedly destroyed by protesters.

Meanwhile, Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal’s remarks against UML leaders have further deepened hostilities. UML politburo member Mahesh Basnet has emerged as a leading voice against the government, organizing rallies and public programs that the Home Ministry has condemned as provocative.

At the heart of the dispute lies a clash over the interpretation of the Sept 8–9 protests. The Karki government views the unrest as a “GenZ revolt,” a spontaneous youth uprising born of generational frustration. The UML, however, insists it was a politically motivated conspiracy designed to weaken the party and destabilize the country.

According to UML leaders, GenZ activists withdrew on the afternoon of Sept 8, and the subsequent violence on Sept 9 cannot be considered part of a youth movement. Oli has repeatedly dismissed the term GenZ as “a Western construct irrelevant to Nepal’s socio-political reality.”

The UML has rejected the legitimacy of the Karki government, accusing it of acting unconstitutionally. On Nov 9, Oli alleged that “those who set the country on fire” during the protests are the same individuals now in power. The party has since declared a nationwide protest campaign against what it calls a “repressive and illegitimate regime.”

As the government finalizes preparations for the March 5 elections, the UML is taking to the streets, setting the stage for a high-stakes confrontation. Meanwhile, the Karki administration continues to demand the restoration of Parliament, arguing that only a fresh constitutional mandate can resolve the crisis.