Modi’s US visit: Tracing the future of Indo-US relationship
Much is at the stake for New Delhi and Washington as PM Modi kickstarts his historic three-day US visit today. India, as Foreign Minister S Jaishankar puts it, expects ‘significant outcomes’. The schedule, event, and laid out agenda making PM Modi the first Indian prime minister to address the US Congress twice is emblematic of the “deep and close partnership” . Modi’s diaspora outreach on July 23, his fourth major address to the community since he came to power in 2014, is testament of the growing importance and economic and political stake of the Indian diaspora in American politics. The Indian diaspora that constitutes one percent of the US population contributes six percent to the nation’s total income tax. The importance of diaspora outreach like soft power diplomacy too was recognized under PM Modi’s stewardship in Indian foreign policy. India has acknowledged the Indian diaspora’s crucial role in promoting the country’s image, fostering economic ties, and building political relationships. The China question Both sides have conceptual differences on the Indo-Pacific. The US takes the Indo-Pacific as a region where rules-based liberal international order needs to be preserved against the backdrop of China’s aggressive rise. In contrast, India considers the Indo-Pacific as an “inclusive” region and has categorically stated that the QUAD is not directed against any one country. Hence as Senior Adviser to India Policy Studies Richard M Rossow puts it, both the United States and India need to spend time on their shared and different views of the Indo-Pacific. In the wake of the divergences, QUAD’s objective of bringing collective capacities to come up with solutions to real problems in the Indo-Pacific has gained traction. One of the important areas that India needs to draw attention of the US and other QUAD partners is the security of critical chokepoints and maritime highways of the Indian Ocean Region. India has so far stuck to its Non-Alignment values avoiding alliance partnership with external powers. The US as a strategic partner must take that into consideration. Critical defense partnership As both sides are preparing a ‘robust outcome document’, the external affairs ministry has said that a roadmap for defense industrial cooperation is expected to be one of the key outcomes of PM Modi’s visit that comes amid the India-China tensions along the border. The multi-billion dollar deal likely to be announced after the Modi-Biden talks assumes significance as it gives America an opportunity to weaken India’s reliance on Russian weaponry. Moreover, the US looks at India as a strong counterweight to China. A strong defense cooperation deal is bound to convey a strong message to China. Indo-US technology partnership Amidst the China-US semiconductor standoff, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US is likely to give a boost to the Indo-US technology partnership, especially on the establishment of a new semiconductor supply chain where major announcements are expected. Two months after the US Congress passed the CHIPS and Science Act (a law that approves subsidies and tax breaks to help renewed indigenous production) in August 2022, the Joe Biden administration issued wide-ranging restrictions on the export to China of chips and chip-making technologies to undercut that country’s ability to manufacture the same class of integrated circuits. Amidst “healthy competition” between the US and China, as Janet Yellen would put it, India can expect to attract foreign investments and leverage it to achieve its “atma-nirbhar” (self-reliance) goal. India’s neighborhood In India’s neighborhood, an area that requires attention is the Af-Pak region. After the US withdrawal, China is emerging as a major player in Afghanistan that gives it access to the critical mineral reserves. Further, Pakistan and China have decided to go ahead with a plan to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan. Apart from the issue of China’s expanding sphere of influence, terrorism is an important challenge in the region that concerns both the US and India’s global commitment. In an important development, China on June 20th blocked a proposal by India and the US at the United Nations to designate Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist Sajid Mir, wanted for his involvement in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, as a global terrorist. This case also highlights the need for India and the US to jointly address the common challenges in the region. Promoting global south Demonstrating India’s commitment to bridging the gap between the Global North and the Global South, PM Modi recently urged the G20 members to invite the African Union as a member during the upcoming summit. Given that the US is now adapting its foreign policy for expanding its footprint in the Global South, New Delhi can be Washington’s bridge. During his visit to India in March, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “Prime Minister Modi is right that there are real challenges to the multilateral system” indicating that there’s room for US-India consultations on new-age multilateralism. The way forward India and the US have common issues like climate and clean energy, partnership for global good, and I2U2 that aims to forge cooperation and bring investment in areas such as water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security as fundamentals. Forums like the US-India Commercial Dialogue and US-India CEO Forum should get activated to reinvigorate bilateral economic conversations. Overall, ensuring meaningful exchanges and discussion on shared strategic, regional, bilateral and global challenges would ensure a stronger future for India-US relations. The author is a foreign policy analyst based in New Delhi