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Following a series of high-level visits by US officials, it is now time for neighboring countries to send their emissaries. Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra is set to arrive in Kathmandu on Monday on a three-day official visit. According to reports, he will hand over Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal for an official visit to India. This trip is significant since Prime Minister Dahal earlier said his first foreign trip will be to India. After Dahal became prime minister, the US initiated  a series of diplomatic visits to Nepal. Samantha Power, the head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), was in Kathmandu on February 7-8. Before her came Victoria Nuland, the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs. According to reports, two other high-ranking US officials are expected to make trips to Nepal in the near future. These visits demonstrate the US' policy of ''shuttle diplomacy'' in Nepal. Diplomatic visits play a crucial role in fostering positive relationships between countries and improving bilateral cooperation on various fronts. They help build a platform for political, economic and cultural exchanges, which further strengthen the ties between nations. Diplomatic visits are an essential aspect of effective international relations and can have a significant impact on the development and prosperity of countries like Nepal. Frequent visits from the US and neighboring countries demonstrate their interest in the affairs of Nepal and their willingness to work toward mutually beneficial solutions at the surface. These visits as such provide opportunities for leaders to engage in discussions on key issues, explore new areas of cooperation, and establish a better understanding of each other's perspectives. Nepal's location between two large and powerful countries, India and China, presents both opportunities and challenges for the country. On one hand, having close relations with both the countries can provide economic, political, and strategic leverage for Nepal. On the other, balancing relations between the two major powers can be a delicate task, which, if not handled carefully, can lead to negative consequences. No doubt, Nepal's foreign policy has prioritized India and China, but it is also important to maintain relations with other friendly countries and entities, such as the US and the European Union. It is notable that after Nepal’s parliament endorsed the US’ Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), the US has further intensified its activities in Nepal, under which more financial support has been committed. The evidence is Power’s announcement of $60m assistance to Nepal this past week. Leaving aside the strategic element, it underscores the US' commitment to supporting Nepal's efforts to strengthen its institutions and promote economic growth. Strategic goals are obviously pursued during such visits, which need a high level of confidence. As Nepal witnessed a dramatic power shift that kept the Nepali Congress out of power, the US may have experienced political shock, raising doubts over the commitment of the Nepali Congress-led government under Sher Bahadur Deuba. These hasty visits demonstrated Washington’s willingness to engage with the new government like its predecessor. Another reason is linked to the global ambition of the US to rule the world unilaterally, without any challenge from other power/s.  The US' Indo-Pacific Strategy is centered on containing China's rise and maintaining the regional balance of power. By engaging with Nepal, the US may hope to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region and secure its own strategic interests. But Nepal has a principled position of not allowing the use of Nepali territory against any neighbor/friendly country. All political parties and governments have taken ownership of this policy. One thing appears to be self-evident in this: Nepal is likely to experience geopolitical shocks in coming years. China is not the same as it was a decade ago. It has used "wolf-warrior diplomacy," aiming to strike at the head of any power, including the US, when it feels threatened. China's designation as a "peer rival" of America by the US authorities reflects Beijing's rising involvement in global politics and diplomacy. Therefore, Nepal must execute its principled policy of non-alignment effectively by keeping external pressures at bay. Washington's recent actions in Nepal have prompted new responses from India and China. Both nations have reached out to Prime Minister Dahal, conveying their readiness to collaborate with Nepal's new administration. India and China have taken equal steps in this regard. Against this backdrop, Indian Foreign Secretary Kwatra, who was in charge of the Nepal mission before his elevation, is visiting Nepal.  Kwatra will have extensive discussions with Nepali government officials and leaders of major parties on various issues. As Napoleon Bonaparte once said, the policy of a state lies in its geography. This maxim is relevant even today. Nepal's relations with India and China cannot be compared with any other friendly country. The dynamics of Nepal-India relations cannot even be compared with Nepal-China relations.  The Prime Minister should assure India that his government will maintain cordial relations that baseless pretexts won’t come in the way of bilateral relations. Nepal should raise genuine issues related to the border and facilitation of bilateral trade and economic cooperation.  A high-level visit from China is sure to take place in the coming months and the Prime Minister will be invited to visit the northern neighbor. With China also, Nepal should articulate its priorities and try to address the genuine issues of China.  

Everyone is looking forward to the election for the President because it will be a very important moment for the current ruling alliance. Above all, the vote will determine whether or not Nepal has political stability. It will also demonstrate the fundamentals of political morality. The upcoming election will clear doubts about the present coalition's lifespan and other crucial issues. The Election Commission is preparing to hold the crucial vote within 11 Feb, as the term of President Bidya Devi Bhandari ends on 13 March. Article 63 of the Constitution has fixed  a five-year term for the president and vice-president. The vote is likely to go smoothly with the ruling coalition expected to give its unanimous vote, as it did in the election for the Speaker and the Deputy Speaker. The ruling coalition had a solid majority to run the government, but Prime Minister Puspa Kamal Dahal's quest for broader support has complicated matters, increasing suspicions between the two major communist parties—the CPN-UML and the CPN (Maoist Center). Let’s expect the PM to realize sooner than later the important role of CPN-UML Chair KP Sharma Oli in giving shape to the Dahal-led government. Things have been moving so far according to their initial understanding. The Maoist party voted for the UML candidate for the Speaker, Devraj Ghimire, and the Deputy Speaker was also chosen on the basis of the same understanding. The seriousness within the coalition was also manifested through a smooth expansion of the Cabinet. New faces making it to the Cabinet has imparted a positive message. Despite popularity tactics on their part, some ministers have been enjoying the ‘benefit of the doubt’ thus far. Let's wait at least for 100 days. This article is primarily concerned with the role of the major ruling party, CPN UML, in the success of the Dahal-led government. KP Sharma Oli, CPN-UML chair, is the kingmaker of this coalition government, so he will do everything in his powers to keep the coalition intact. The UML leadership will not tolerate any act against established norms vis-a-vis this coalition, so PM Dahal should rest assured that the UML will provide him full support. According to a senior UML leader, fracturing the electoral coalition—comprising the Nepali Congress, the Maoist party and other fringe parties—was his party’s greatest triumph. "We were able to destroy an electoral alliance formed for the benefit of select leaders," he said. “This government is better for the country and the people. At the very least, new faces have entered the cabinet and offered a glimmer of hope." The idea behind this coalition is that every member of the UML, from local to central, contributes to the viability of the coalition. Also, the UML leadership will provide strong support to the prime minister in implementing the agreements and decisions reached within the framework of the coalition. There may be rounds of discussions during policy formulation, but once finalized, all parties are required to follow these political decisions. Another strategy of the UML is to create an environment that is particularly conducive to the prime minister and ministers. As the head of the cabinet, the PM should have complete authority over decisions pertaining to the ministries. The UML leadership will not seek a mirror image in Cabinet leadership. It is not acceptable. Each leader's working style is unique, and no one should impose their approach on others. Dahal is in his third term as prime minister and is noted for his unique working style. The UML ministers must not associate him with Oli or other leaders. This regime is not only the result of Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba's deceitful actions. Dahal is more than Deuba's replacement as prime minister. This coalition reflects the people's feelings and sentiments. New parties and individuals have been well-represented in the Cabinet. If this arrangement fails to deliver, it will be very unfortunate for the country and the people. It is hoped that the importance of this arrangement has dawned on the Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party. Rather than worrying about support from coalition partners, including the UML, the PM should focus on delivering good governance, which he has outlined as his government’s policy priority. Action-based initiatives and new policies are required to achieve this. The PM has a majority; he should not be anxious about whether or not the Nepali Congress will back him. His major task is to win the trust of the ruling parties. None of the ruling coalition parties will betray him. The prime minister will be deceiving himself if he continues to harbor doubts about the intent of the coalition partners. Oli is widely seen as a capable leader, who has a development vision and programs for Nepal. It would be beneficial for Dahal to share expertise and experiences with Oli. It should be noted that Oli will succeed Dahal as PM after two-and-a-half-years. Supporting Dahal fully for the first half of a five-year premiership is expected to result in the same level of support from Dahal for Oli’s premiership. If Oli and Dahal are thinking about the country, this partnership should endure at least five years.

Nepali politics saw a series of dramatic upheavals after the results of November 20 elections came out. The election outcome was unexpected, even more unexpected was the way the government formation process panned out. Although the Nepali Congress emerged as the largest party, the head of the third largest party, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, won the prime ministerial race. Who engineered the new alliance at the eleventh hour? It was KP Sharma Oli, the chairman of the second-largest party, CPN-UML. Oli dismantled the pre-poll five-party alliance under the NC, offering Dahal an olive branch and making many believe that Oli had won the political game, at least the round at hand. On Dec 25, Dahal was elected the prime minister for the third time in 15 years and on January 10, he won 99 percent parliamentary approval. At least on the surface, it appears the defeated NC boss Deuba is beginning a course correction by giving Dahal his party’s vote of confidence. The unexpected domestic political events of recent weeks have by and large dismayed the people with the hope of political stability dashed. Nepali leaders have lost self-esteem. There is, however, a glimmer of hope. Unlike in his previous two stints as prime minister, Dahal is seeking to send a new and positive message this time, pledging to dedicate his full focus on established government priorities. We can give him the benefit of the doubt for that. What the new administration achieves in its first 100 days should give us a clear picture of the shape of things to come.  We all know that the major issue facing Nepal is poor governance, PM Dahal has pointed this out correctly and pledged that addressing this issue will be one of his top priorities. It will be interesting to see how he implements his vision. However, this article will not focus further on Prime Minister Dahal's domestic front, rather it will look at his exterior and peripheral challenges. With political parties dividing the society, Nepal's foreign policy priorities are subject to interpretation, (mis)guided somehow by tradition or practice. Allowing the major parties' manifestos to speak for themselves will lead to the development of consensus-based policies and goals. Our parties have prioritized India and China vis-a-vis foreign policy visions and that’s indeed encouraging. Against this backdrop, I believe it is necessary to begin by highlighting Prime Minister Dahal’s major challenges. Of course, the neighbors come first. Maintaining balanced relations with both India and China may be the most challenging task for him. In the light of Prime Minister Dahal’s earlier controversies, maintaining a balanced neighborhood policy remains a big issue, given that he had displayed unstable and inconsistent policy toward both neighbors in the past. On account of this factor, political and diplomatic authorities in both India and China do not fully trust him. Furthermore, this government is essentially the result of a communist alliance. It is well known that Nepal's northern neighbor, China, sympathizes with the communist government. Though there is no evidence that the Chinese side had a role in the formation of this government, the policies and activities adopted by the Chinese government shortly afterward demonstrate Beijing’s pleased response. The response of Nepal’s southern neighbor is also worth pondering over. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his senior officials congratulated Dahal with diplomatic civility. The underlying expressions of Delhi's strategic analysts have plainly observed China's support for the Dahal-led government. PM Dahal will confront a significant challenge in maintaining equitable relations with China and India in such a setting. He needs to maintain a balance, but not absolute balance. China is a world power, while India is an Asian power. China and India have the world's second and fifth largest economies, respectively. Various studies predict that China will overtake the United States as the world's greatest economy by 2033. On the other hand, India, by that time, will be the world's third largest economy. It indicates that Asians (at least a section of them) are driving the world, making the concept of the "Asian Century" a reality. It must dawn on the new prime minister that India and China are more than just Nepal's neighbors. They are also global forces and world players. Dealing with them entails maintaining friendly relations with two powerful nations. Nepal’s neighbors maintain economic cooperation while continuing their geopolitical competition as rivals. Such a scenario is quite challenging for Nepal. Prime Minister Dahal should ensure that none of his government's actions or decisions are taken on behalf of any country. He must win the trust of both the countries by making issue-based decisions that prioritize national interest. India and China's legitimate issues and difficulties should also be discussed and addressed. Nepalis do not want their prime minister to serve their neighbors' interests. Prime Minister Dahal should not interact with his neighbors based on his party's ideology. Nepal should not choose China over India or vice-versa if it is to achieve the national aim of growth and prosperity. Nepal should decide what kind of financial assistance it requires from its friends. Prime Minister Dahal is well aware that Nepal's infrastructure requires huge investment. India and China have contributed to our big infrastructure projects, but their contributions have also raised doubts. Nepal has signed the Chinese BRI, although it is not a loan-based initiative. What happens if we are unable to repay the loan to China? This appears to be a difficult undertaking. Yes, both India and China congratulated Dahal on his appointment and indicated their desire to collaborate for strengthening relations with Nepal. But those words of goodwill were more like a routine diplomatic courtesy. China's overwhelming joy is somewhat worrying. The decision to open the Kerung-Rasuwa border, as well as the railway survey team that arrived in Nepal the day after Dahal became prime minister reflect Beijing's hopeful thinking. India and China will strive to protect their national interests while dealing with Nepal. After all, the basic objective of foreign policy is to protect national interest. All nations try to safeguard their national interest in today's world. Furthermore, at a time when Nepal has emerged as the epicenter of the geopolitical rivalry of great powers, Dahal, in his third term as PM, should be very very cautious in dealing with peripheral and global powers and their interests.