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From here in my office at Tinkune, I get a clear view of the Tribhuvan International Airport. I love to see the colorful international flights take off and land—the orange lion of Malindo, the red-and-blue Nepal Airlines, the purple antelope of Qatar. No such luck of late. As I write this, not a single international airline, Nepali or foreign, is visible anywhere on the airport tarmac. This should have been a time our sole international airport was buzzing with traffic as it welcomed the flocking foreign tourists for Visit Nepal 2020.

The past few weeks have instead been a nightmare for Nepali tourism. Reportedly, we have only had a single case of novel coronavirus, and even that infected person is now up and running. Nepal has been lucky to have reported so few corona cases, despite its proximity to China. Even India has seen the number of cases steadily tick up. But is it a case of luck, or do we simply don’t have the tools to establish corona infections? 

One explanation for the low number of reported cases could be Nepal’s relatively young population of 21.6 years: The older you are, the more likely you are to show corona symptoms and struggle with them. No one should be surprised if things quickly take a turn for the worse and we have to start forced quarantines. Yet how many people will follow government quarantine orders? Will they even trust their government to give them the right information?   

What we see is that the countries whose governments are most trusted (China leads the pack in this) have fared the best in corona-control. But countries like Italy, France and Spain, where public trust in their government is low, have struggled to contain the virus. This trust can be the difference between life and death. And you can only build trust by telling cold, hard truths, however discomforting. (China thankfully started doing so after the initial cover-up.)

As John M. Barry recently put it in The New York Times, the most important lesson of the past pandemics is that the government must be seen as honest if it is to convince people to follow its instructions.

During the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic (17-50 million deaths; 675,000 in the US alone), “neither national nor local government officials [in the US] told the truth. The disease was called ‘Spanish flu,’ and one national public-health leader said, ‘This is ordinary influenza by another name’.” As Barry writes, after Philadelphia began digging mass graves; closed schools, saloons and theaters; and banned public gatherings, one newspaper even wrote: “This is not a public health measure. There is no cause for alarm.”

Survey after survey shows Nepalis have little trust in their government, or in traditional media outlets. They are thus liable to believe all kinds of conspiracy theories like the government is suppressing the count of corona victims or, alternately, Covid-19 is no big deal at all, and the risks have been needlessly inflated by the Twitterati. 

Yet there is also no alternative to trusting the government right now. The decisions it has made in the past few days have not been universally popular. But they were the right ones. If there indeed has been no corona cover-up, what a wonderful opportunity this is for the government to reestablish lost public trust.

The Chinese government is understandably touchy about any criticism of its handling of the novel coronavirus outbreak. No less than the longevity of President Xi Jinping’s tenure as Chinese president is on the line. When the contagion started spreading like Black Dragon Fire at the start of January, the consensus was that much would depend on the speed with which the Chinese leadership could contain it. Having botched his first response to the Wuhan outbreak, Xi could ill afford to let the contagion get out of hand. Thankfully for him, the rate of new infections in China is drastically down and the country is already trying to ease corona-related restrictions.

By showing that he can mount a fightback against corona, Xi is regaining the trust of his citizens. It is unclear if the slowdown in the rate of new infections is a temporary lull or a more permanent phenomenon. Yet it is safe to assume that Chinese leaders will have their hands full dealing with the fallout from the novel coronavirus pandemic for some time yet. They could have time for little else, including the kind of proactive diplomacy Xi has undertaken since the 2013 unveiling of his signature Belt and Road Initiative.

The Kathmandu Post fiasco illustrated the sort of damage-control job Chinese diplomats and foreign missions will be engaged in for the foreseeable future. The focus of Chinese foreign policy in this time will be to establish that Xi handled the corona crisis as well as (if not better than) anyone else could have. This narrative is important to assure Xi’s countrymen that he is still firmly in charge and capable of dealing with any crisis. ‘Uncle Xi’ will never fail them.

Only when he reestablishes his control over the popular narrative and firmly tamps down on any criticism from within the communist party over his handling of the coronavirus outbreak—only then will his focus again shift abroad, to that dream of making China the focal point of a new world order. This could have important ramifications for smaller countries in the region like Nepal. The Chinese leadership distracted, and the ‘botched Wuhan response’ narrative still finding takers, the westerners will try to play up the dangers of allying with an ‘authoritarian’ state like China that evidently doesn’t even care about its own people.

But the communist government in Nepal will continue to be loyal to Beijing, a position that won’t be unpopular with the people. They have not forgotten the pain of the 2015-16 Indian blockade, or China’s indispensability as that important counterweight to India. Moreover, the position of a powerful NCP faction that the American MCC compact has sinister anti-China agenda has found plenty of takers; ask any taxi-driver in Kathmandu. Perhaps there could come a time when China is mistrusted in Nepal. Right now, more common is the view that the western world is trying to demonize China when it is going through one of the toughest times in its recent history.

Exactly a year ago, the Oli government outlawed the Netra Bikram Chand ‘Biplob’-led Nepal Communist Party (NCP), in a move criticized in many quarters. Instead of talking to the renegade Maoist outfit and trying to usher it into mainstream politics, why was the government trying to suppress it with brute force? And why was Biplob’s party outlawed without a serious attempt at talks, at a time the outfit of CK Raut, another underground party, was being persuaded to shun its secessionist path?

The critics had a point. The price of trying to suppress the incipient Maoist rebellion in 1996 was high. In the end, a solution to the Maoist insurgency could be found only through talks. So perhaps Biplob could have been talked out of extremism too? Unlikely. The decade-long insurgency was possible in Nepal during a particular time. Things have since vastly changed, in and outside the country. Nor did Biplob, unlike CK Raut, appear willing to talk to the government team that had been formed specifically for the purpose. Instead, the outfit resorted to blatant acts of violence and killing of ordinary people. It was rightly banned.

On 11 March 2020, the first anniversary of the ban, the party detonated a bomb at the residence of ex-Minister for Communications Gokul Baskota, whom it blamed of robbing the country and of displaying fascist tendencies. Again, bombing public places is no way to make yourself heard. Since imposing the ban, around 1,500 leaders and cadres of the party have been arrested, and it’s on the verge of political irrelevance. Biplob is on the run, reportedly living somewhere along the Indo-Nepal border.

There can be no two ways about it: If the party is serious about finding a way out through talks, it should first abandon violence. Last year, asked by APEX what he was trying to achieve, Biplob had replied: “… we want an end to the way the crony capitalist class is impoverishing the people and bankrupting the country by capturing the economic, political and cultural arena and key sectors like education, health and real estate.” Apparently, he wants to achieve all this by ‘completing’ the ‘incomplete’ Maoist war that ‘turncoats’ like Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai abandoned halfway. The growing marginalization of his party is proof that time is not conducive for another war. It’s also a message that Nepalis have had enough of politics of violence. 

The scariest thing about the novel coronavirus is that any of you reading this may have it and yet be asymptomatic. Nepal has reported just a single case. Probably at least a few more are infected. In a coronavirus infection, the older you are, the more severe symptoms you are likely to show. Particularly vulnerable are the elderly with preexisting health conditions like heart and lung ailments. Thankfully, Nepal is a young country with an average age of 21.6 years. Just around four percent of the national population of around 30 million are over-65.

Thus, even if the global pandemic touches Nepal again, most of the sufferers here will fully recover. Yet that is cold comfort. First, we have inadequate test kits and a potentially large number of asymptomatic young carriers of the virus. In that case, they could pass on the infection to the more vulnerable elder members in their homes and communities. With our under-funded and over-stretched healthcare system, complications among the elderly may then explode. It is telling that in places with good healthcare systems novel coronavirus fatality rate is around 0.5 percent, compared to around 3.4 in places with bad ones.  

It is vital to test all those who show even some symptoms of novel coronavirus quickly. But that is not enough. Over the past week or so, China and South Korea, the two Asian hotspots of coronavirus, have been able to cut the number of new infections drastically through a rigorous tracing and prompt isolation of all those who have come in contact with proven coronavirus carriers. The results have been drastic: the number of daily new cases in China has plummeted from 3,500 in late January to under 24 (as we went to press). 

This gives us hope that even if the virus reenters Nepal, it can be contained. But only if the country can strictly adhere to the rules that have worked elsewhere. Our ability to contain the virus depends on the ease of availability of protective masks and sanitizers. On whether we can build enough isolation units in our hospitals, on whether temperature checking at all our public buildings can be made mandatory. Other effective measures include shutting down schools and cinema halls, limiting the use of public transport, and minimizing hospital visits. 

This is no time to panic though. The government should discourage hoarding of essential commodities like medicines, LP gas and daily edibles through the assurance of their continued and timely supply. It’s all too easy to become selfish in times of crisis. Citizens may only need a gentle nudge to their conscience to behave more magnanimously. But after the WHO has declared the novel coronavirus outbreak a ‘global pandemic’, Nepal will do well to brace for the worst. Again, it will be dangerous to bank too much on the low number of reported infections. 

The Chinese government is understandably touchy about any criticism of its handling of the novel coronavirus outbreak. No less than the longevity of President Xi Jinping’s tenure as Chinese president is on the line. When the contagion started spreading like Black Dragon Fire at the start of January, the consensus was that much would depend on the speed with which the Chinese leadership could contain it. Having botched his first response to the Wuhan outbreak, Xi could ill afford to let the contagion get out of hand. Thankfully for him, the rate of new infections in China is drastically down and the country is already trying to ease corona-related restrictions.

By showing that he can mount a fightback against corona, Xi is regaining the trust of his citizens. It is unclear if the slowdown in the rate of new infections is a temporary lull or a more permanent phenomenon. Yet it is safe to assume that Chinese leaders will have their hands full dealing with the fallout from the novel coronavirus pandemic for some time yet. They could have time for little else, including the kind of proactive diplomacy Xi has undertaken since the 2013 unveiling of his signature Belt and Road Initiative.

The Kathmandu Post fiasco illustrated the sort of damage-control job Chinese diplomats and foreign missions will be engaged in for the foreseeable future. The focus of Chinese foreign policy in this time will be to establish that Xi handled the corona crisis as well as (if not better than) anyone else could have. This narrative is important to assure Xi’s countrymen that he is still firmly in charge and capable of dealing with any crisis. ‘Uncle Xi’ will never fail them.

Only when he reestablishes his control over the popular narrative and firmly tamps down on any criticism from within the communist party over his handling of the coronavirus outbreak—only then will his focus again shift abroad, to that dream of making China the focal point of a new world order. This could have important ramifications for smaller countries in the region like Nepal. The Chinese leadership distracted, and the ‘botched Wuhan response’ narrative still finding takers, the westerners will try to play up the dangers of allying with an ‘authoritarian’ state like China that evidently doesn’t even care about its own people.

But the communist government in Nepal will continue to be loyal to Beijing, a position that won’t be unpopular with the people. They have not forgotten the pain of the 2015-16 Indian blockade, or China’s indispensability as that important counterweight to India. Moreover, the position of a powerful NCP faction that the American MCC compact has sinister anti-China agenda has found plenty of takers; ask any taxi-driver in Kathmandu. Perhaps there could come a time when China is mistrusted in Nepal. Right now, more common is the view that the western world is trying to demonize China when it is going through one of the toughest times in its recent history.

People panic in a crisis. Logic does not always work in the face of a direct threat to you and your family. As the coronavirus originated in China, surely, all Chinese folks, and even those who look like them, are its potential carriers and must be rigorously avoided. A video that was reportedly shot in Kenya and has been doing the rounds on Twitter shows a crowd surrounding a Chinese couple. “You are corona!” a local shouts at the Chinese woman. The locals nearly punch the Chinese man who is trying to defend his compatriot. 

Nepal has thus far been lucky to have escaped the corona contagion, even though its entry cannot be ruled out, most likely via the open India-Nepal border. The arrival of Chinese nationals via air routes has not been completely halted either. Yet doctors and virologists have a point when they say that had corona entered Nepal, it would have been hard to keep it down; the number of infected people would have exploded in our jam-packed settlements. 

Coming back to the Chinese, Nepalis are naturally wary of the people they know little about. Different political systems, different self-beliefs, different food and language—there is so much that separates us. This is why even though most Nepalis have enormous goodwill towards China as a state, and as that important counterbalance to India, they can’t easily relate with the Chinese people. It won’t be a surprise if scenes like the one shot in Kenya were to be repeated here. Or in India. I remember an experienced Nepali diplomat telling me about how easy it was for him to deal with the Indians over the years. Yes, there were many differences, and yet there was also the feeling that the two sides understood each other. With the Chinese, it was a different matter altogether. The Nepali diplomat often felt his Chinese counterparts had agreed to certain things on the basis of what they had said, only to be later told that there had been no such agreement. The Chinese don’t mean what they say, he said. With them, you have to learn to read between the lines. Perhaps he would have said something similar about the Indians if he was not so familiar with the Indian way of life. 

Thankfully, thousands of our children are now learning Mandarin. There is no better way to understand a foreign people than by understanding their language. Let us hope that in the days ahead we will be in a position to deal with China more productively, both at diplomatic and people-to-people levels. 

Crisis creates panic. But a crisis like the coronavirus contagion also offers a rare opportunity to see the commonalities between us—and to build on them. We don’t need no foreign language to understand human suffering.

The executive head is ailing. PM KP Oli faces an uncertain recovery at the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital after a successful kidney transplant, his second. Next three months will be critical, as his body could still reject the new kidney in this time. The country he leads isn’t doing much better either. Its economy has been battered by the ever-growing fear of the entry of the dreaded coronavirus that has spread around the world from next-door China. A lot hinges on Oli’s recovery and the state’s handling of the coronavirus scare.

The ruling Nepal Communist Party remains bitterly divided nearly two years after the formal unity between the CPN-UML and the Maoists. Pushpa Kamal Dahal has never had to play second fiddle to anyone in the past three decades. But as a part of the party unification package deal, Dahal was forced into an uncomfortable compromise with Oli. As the undisputed leader of the NCP, Oli had slowly started consolidating power, both in the party and in the government. Now Dahal is getting antsy again. If he cannot be the prime minister right away, he would like to lock in the chairman’s position going into the general convention next April. Should Oli’s health remain iffy—or worse—Dahal will look to take complete control. 

He won’t have it easy though. The one-time Maoist supremo will face a tough competition from ex-UML leaders who have never accepted Dahal as their chairman. But if Oli recovers well, all bets will be off, as he will again look to bolster his own claim for continued party leadership. Mischief-makers like Bamdev Gautam will get less room to play in that case. 

Oli’s course of recovery will also have a direct ramification on whether the parliament endorses the MCC compact. The MCC folks in Kathmandu are having sleepless nights as Oli remains hospitalized; they are not banking on Dahal to see the project through. The Chinese may not be that perturbed at the prospect of Dahal becoming prime minister again. The Indians for their part will see political turmoil in Nepal as an opportunity to install their loyalists in the government, possibly with American help.  

Meanwhile, even though no case of coronavirus has been reported in the country, the economy has still been hit hard as people are avoiding places with even a little crowd. If corona is detected tomorrow—which cannot be ruled out as the number of positives continue to rise in India—there could be a virtual curfew on the streets. In the absence of masks and medicines, panic will quickly spread. Once again, the biggest threats to Nepal emanate from outside the country.  

But potentially destabilizing forces inside are as potent. The re-appointment of Yubaraj Khatiwada as finance minister has sent shock waves among the business community, as was reflected in the recent stock-market bloodbath. The economy is effectively rudderless at the hands of this cerebral finance minister who seems intent on charting his own socialist fiscal course. His questionable appointments notwithstanding, PM Oli will hopefully recover soon and take over the reins, and the worst of uncertainties can be avoided. The country is unstable even with him firmly in the fray. Without him, it will be anarchy.
 

There were unmistakable signs during US President Don­ald Trump’s recent India visit that the two countries are keen on closer collaboration to contain China’s rise in the region. Speaking in New Delhi, Trump said he was “revi­talizing” the QUAD initiative with the help of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The QUAD—composed of Australia, Japan, India, and the US—is a platform, just like the Indo-Pa­cific Strategy, aimed at countering the Chinese BRI. Trump said among the goals of QUAD revival is “ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.”He reaffirmed the American commitment to fighting radical Islamic terrorism. As if the message was lost on the Indian audience he wanted to woo, he added that the US is also working with Pakistan to confront terrorists who operate “on its soil.” This was also music to the ears of Modi and members of the Hindu nationalist government he leads. Although the gargantuan trade deals Trump likes to trumpet did not materialize during his India sojourn, he could nonetheless boast of selling to India around $3 billion worth of American military hardware. His larger-than-life reception in Ahmedabad will also place him in good stead with the Indian-Americans in the year of the presidential election.

For Nepal, there was a clear message that the Americans are intent on consolidating their ties with India via the Indo-Pacific Strategy to give China a run for its money in South Asia. The American President and the US security establishment are one on this. In the days ahead, expect more pointed US references to Chinese interference in Tibetan affairs in Nepal, more swipes at China’s debt-trap diplomacy, and more Kathmandu visits of top American military officials to cement bilateral security ties. But with the government of its choice in Kathmandu, China won’t hold back either.

Whether the MCC compact is good for Nepal, the Amer­icans will not be pleased at the way PM Oli has appeared helpless in ensuring its smooth passage through the parlia­ment. They were ready to give the communist prime minister benefit of doubt, partly because they had zero trust in the ex-Maoists, including Prachanda. But what if Oli can’t secure their interests? The Indians have been unhappy with him since the blockade days. It makes perfect sense for the Indians and the Americans to join hands to secure their increasingly converging interests in Nepal.

The security establishments in both India and the US are obsessed with China. Minimizing the Middle Kingdom’s footprints in South Asia is their end goal. Towards that end, no tactic, however dirty, will be off limits. As PM Oli slowly loses his grip on power, they espy an opportunity. They will have seen how top Nepali leaders can easily be enticed to compromise on national interests, via amending the national charter if need be. When the three big outside powers here start playing dirty, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen to the country that has barely been able to achieve a semblance of stability after long.