Nepal’s trend of disasters
Nepal is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. The question is not whether a disaster will occur, but which type and when. Marking this week as Disaster Risk Reduction Week in continuation of the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction observed on Oct 13, Looking at past disasters from a retrospective perspective, in addition to recurring events such as earthquakes, floods, and landslides, we can also identify unique incidents such as the Armala sinkhole in Pokhara, the tornado in southern Nepal, the recent sinkhole in Hetauda, and the outburst of a supraglacial lake in Tibet that caused floods in Rasuwa.
On July 8, a sudden flash flood triggered by the rapid discharge of a supraglacial lake on the Purepu Glacier in Tibet caused widespread devastation along the Bhotekoshi River in Rasuwa, Nepal. The event claimed at least 11 lives and left 18 people missing. At the same time, Nepal experienced drought in the Tarai within a span of just 150–200 kilometers, underscoring the complex reality of disaster exposure in the country. Earlier, on May 2, a road in Gairigaun, Hetauda, suddenly caved in, swallowing a vehicle into a swamp-like sinkhole. The vehicle remains missing despite search operations. These two recent events, one a transboundary disaster and the other a unique local hazard, prompt the author to revisit unique past disasters in Nepal rather than recurring ones. Starting with the May 2012 Seti River flood, the author reviewed all unique disasters and their impacts in the country.
On 5 May 2012, a massive avalanche from Annapurna IV triggered a sudden flood in the Seti River, Kaski District, killing 72 people, displacing many families, and causing heavy property loss. Dwivedi & Neupane (2013) reported that approximately 32,000 m² of ridge collapsed from 6,850 meters to 4,500 meters, pulverizing ice, rock, and sediment. The impact generated a brown cloud, strong vibrations, and seismicity equivalent to 3.8–4.0 Richter Scale, recorded in Nepal and even in Tibet. The debris rushed downslope into the Seti River, transforming into a debris flow that traveled 20 km downstream at speeds of about 12 m/s within 28 minutes. Although minor rainfall had occurred a day earlier, it was not linked to the avalanche.
During Nov 2013, major sinkholes formed in Armala, Pokhara. The region, where the Pokhara and Ghachock formations meet, consists of fluvio-lacustrine terraces with mixed sediments of gravel, limestone, quartz, gneiss, calcareous silt, clay, and fine sand. Between 2013 and 2017, over 200 sinkholes formed in Armala, creating severe challenges for residents. On 31 March 2019, strong winds and hailstorms hit Bara and Parsa districts, killing 30 people, injuring more than 1,150, and making over 2,890 families homeless. Infrastructure, utility services, agricultural land, and businesses were damaged. Research suggested this was the first officially recorded tornado in Nepal, though some classified it as a windstorm. Regardless, such wind events on this scale are unusual in the country.
On 15 June 2021, a disastrous debris flow occurred along the Melamchi River in central Nepal and caused enormous loss of life and property. At least 350 residential buildings, six bridges, and numerous infrastructures were affected. According to the World Bank and GFDRR, the flood resulted from the combined effect of heavy rainfall, temperature changes at the snow line, erosion in the end moraine of Pemdan Lake, a possible breach of the natural dam responsible for the lake, and cascading effects of the dam breach, along with erosion and a series of landslides along the Melamchi River.
In Oct 2021, the Mahakali, Karnali, and Seti rivers recorded the highest flows in decades due to unseasonal rainfall, hitting Sudurpaschim Province hardest. The disaster caused 88 fatalities, 30 missing persons, and 10 injuries.
On 13 Aug 2023, heavy rains caused floods in Muktinath, Kagbeni village of Mustang. About 31 buildings, two permanent and three temporary bridges, were destroyed. According to Fort et al. (2024), Kagbeni (2,810 meters) lies in the north Himalayan rain-shadow area and normally receives little rainfall (<300 mm/yr).
However, for several years, the trend has been toward increased rainfall, leading to more landslides and floods. Although rainfall data from the nearest monitoring station, Jomsom (2,720 meters), showed high rainfall, there is no detailed information about rainfall amounts at Jhong (3,600 meters) and Muktinath (3,760 meters), the source area of the Kagbeni flood. The flood was likely a landslide lake outburst, but the difficult terrain has limited detailed study.
Nepal has also recently experienced heat extremes. On 30 May 2024, Nepalgunj reached 44.2°C and Dhangadhi 44.1°C, closer to the highest ever recorded data of 46.4°C in Dipayal on 5 June 1995.
On 8 July 2024, the cloudburst event occurred, where Dodhara Chandani in Kanchanpur recorded the heaviest 24-hour rainfall in the 77-year history of rainfall measurement in Nepal, with a recording of 624 mm. Other nearby stations recorded similar extreme rainfall, surpassing previous records from 1993.
On 16 Aug 2024, a sudden flood carrying boulders devastated Thame village in Khumbu, destroying 60 buildings and damaging various structures. On that day, there was hardly any rainfall. It was later found that the flood was caused by an outburst from the Thyanbo glacial lake. Other significant events include the Birendra Lake overflow on 21 April 2024 with no human casualties. On 12 July 2024, A landslide struck two buses at Simaltal, Chitwan, sweeping them into the Trisuli River and causing the loss of 59 lives.
During 27–29 Sept 2024, extreme precipitation caused flooding, landslides, and inundation across different parts of Nepal. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) recorded rainfall at 222 stations nationwide, of which 77 stations reported heavy rainfall exceeding 200 mm on 28 September. Among the hydrological gauging stations, 23 recorded water levels surpassing the danger level, while another 14 recorded levels exceeding the warning threshold. The floods affected 518,403 households and a population of 2.59m, with an estimated economic loss of Rs 46.6bn. During this event, three buses were buried by a mudslide in Jhyaple Khola, Dhading, resulting in the loss of at least 35 lives.
On May 15, at around 10:30 pm, a sudden debris flow occurred in the Tiljung stream in Namkha, Humla. The incident affected the 15 kW micro-hydropower project, drinking water sources, cultivable land, irrigation canals, and the motorable bridge over the Til stream. According to field reports, this was likely caused by the melting of permafrost within the moraine, which developed into a cavity or piping system extending to the lakebed, ultimately resulting in the sudden drainage of the lakes. The Til flood does not resemble a typical GLOF, but a detailed study could classify it more accurately as a Thermokarst Flood or Permafrost-Release Flood. A massive flood in Upper Mustang on July 9, carrying mud and damaging six bridges, including four that were completely swept away.
Also, the cyclones that develop in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have indirect impacts and sometimes cascading and compounding effects. For example, Cyclone Tauktae in May 2021 caused mild to light rainfall across western Nepal, with a flash flood in Ramaroshan in Achham District in Sudurpashim Province. Cyclone Yaas in May 2021 left various parts of Nepal drenched in rain and overcast conditions. On 14 Oct 2014, sudden weather changes caused by Cyclone Hudhud in Nepal reportedly triggered avalanches around Dhaulagiri and Annapurna. The avalanches and heavy snowfall killed at least 43 people in Nepal and caused heavy rainfall in major cities.
Along with recurring events such as earthquakes, including the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake, the Doti Earthquake of 2022, and the Bajhang and Jajarkot earthquakes of 2023, as well as annually occurring monsoon disasters, and global pandemics such as Covid-19, unique disaster events have caused major damage to both life and property. These events have resulted in substantial economic losses and placed a heavy burden on reconstruction, rehabilitation, and recovery efforts, ultimately impacting Nepal’s overall GDP. Some of the above events include transboundary challenges in disaster management, where disasters originating in neighboring countries also cause loss of life and property in Nepal.
In addition, the change in the pattern and intensity of rainfall, unseasonal droughts, increasing heatwaves and forest fires, along with various climate extremes, reflect the evolving risks caused by climate change. According to NDRRMA, although rainfall during the first 90 days of this year’s monsoon has been below average, monsoon-related disasters have already caused 63 deaths and left 22 people missing. As hydro-meteorological events and their effects increase, the early warning system for such hazards needs to be strengthened. In 2024, forecasts issued by the DHM were almost 70 percent accurate, but in 2025, accuracy appears to be lower, highlighting the need for technological improvements to enhance forecast reliability.
According to the National DRR Strategic Plan of Action (2018–2030), the target was to reduce annual disaster-related deaths to 300 by 2025. However, given the current situation, achieving this target seems challenging. Moving from disaster management to investing in risk reduction is more effective, more efficient, and fairer. This is also the message of the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction: “Fund resilience, not disasters. Disaster risk financing strategies must also be strengthened, especially to protect agriculture and farming, while reducing the financial burden in the post-disaster phase.
The Government of Karnali Province has already introduced good practices in risk transfer and insurance by launching the Natural Disaster Risk Group Insurance Program, which provides coverage of up to Rs 200,000 and has reached around 1.7m people. In addition, the Disaster Home Protection Program has supported 16,078 households with benefits worth Rs 8.8m as of the fiscal year 2024/25. It is also essential to engage and support community disaster management committees, local women’s and youth groups, so their involvement extends beyond formal channels and can be immediately mobilized after a disaster.
It is equally necessary to equip all security forces with the required personnel, rescue gear, and rapid response training needed for swift mobilization, and to explore the possibility of establishing a separate National Disaster Response Force, as the country needs regular human resources dedicated to disaster response. We are all aware that Nepal is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, but it is also time to explore potential hazards that may cause disasters, as past trends have shown unexpected events in the country. It is high time we ask ourselves and prepare for every possible disaster, since Nepal seems to be safe only from marine disasters.
The author is an earthquake engineer with over a decade of experience in practice and research in DRR, civil and earthquake engineering
