GenZ protest and meltdown of state security
On Sept 8, most GenZ youths probably woke up earlier than usual, driven by hope and a mission to protest against the rampant corruption plaguing Nepal at the Maitighar Mandala. They never expected that they would find state-sanctioned bullets to their heads. This article seeks to look at what lapses led to a meltdown of security mechanisms, specifically on the Sept 8 protests. This is because I align with the views of many experts, including Dr Balram Timalsina, who believe that the two days should be viewed in a completely different way and there should be two separate commissions to investigate them. Sept 8 was a protest driven by ‘frustration’ against the deep-rooted corruption in the country. Sept 9 was a protest driven by ‘anger’ against the state-sanctioned violence.
The beginning
Unlike traditional protests, most preparations for this one took place on social media. Individuals like Raksha Bam and Purushottam Yadav personally visited the Kathmandu district administration office to obtain permission for a peaceful protest between Maitighar and Everest Hotel, Baneshwor. The authorities granted the permission, but appeared unaware, or perhaps even indifferent, to how many people would turn up in support.
As a leaderless protest, different groups called people to gather at Maitighar at various times, but it began shortly before 9 am. Initially, there were just a handful of people, but looking at the rate of people coming in, everybody (except the authorities) knew that this protest was going to make its mark in history. In hindsight, the atmosphere around 9 am was lively, with GenZ showcasing its creativity through paintings and printed memes held high above their heads.
The crowd’s behavior clearly showed it was a headless movement. Many were small groups of friends and classmates, seemingly attending their first protest. However, a particular group stood out. Anyone familiar with Kathmandu’s protests would easily recognize these faces and allegiances. Not everyone was there independently; some had vested interests. The protest had been infiltrated, though this was not entirely unexpected given the crowd of over 12,000 people. Yet, the state still seemed unprepared for such a contingency.
Intel and security failures
The intelligence agencies failed to analyze and predict the gravity of the situation, leaving authorities completely off guard. The National Investigation Department (NID), under the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) at the time, should have been properly mobilized to monitor developments. The blanket ban on 26 social media platforms had already created public hostility toward the government. The Nepo-Baby trending on TikTok gained more traction after this ban, as people, especially GenZ, shifted to TikTok, increasing the trend’s reach and influence on the protest.
The NID and other security intelligence units failed to monitor social media activity, relying instead on outdated methods of intelligence gathering and analysis. In recent years, the NID has come under scrutiny, with growing questions about whether it should remain under the PMO. Experts have long criticized it for being used by leaders to surveil political rivals. Had the NID been more proactive, other security agencies and possibly even the Prime Minister would have been aware of how the situation was unfolding on the ground.
The Nepal Police and the Armed Police Force (APF) are responsible for crowd management. They looked severely undermanned and did not take enough precautions to prevent a scenario where things would go out of control. Despite the fact that it was planned as a peaceful protest, it was the duty of the state and the security forces to prepare for any sort of contingency that may arise as the situation developed.
The escalation
People in the protest have said that initially they planned to march up to the Everest Hotel and return to Maitighar. When they reached the Bijuli-bazaar bridge, the only obstacle they faced there was a rope. As they marched on and reached in front of the Everest Hotel, they were stopped by a proper barricade set up by the Nepal Police, who clearly looked undermanned to deal with such a massive crowd. Behind them was a layer of APF and one water cannon. Behind this layer, leading up to the Parliament building, there was no police presence at all.
As soon as protesters reached the barricade, some began pushing to break through, even forcing others toward it. Peaceful protesters struggled to move back as they were crushed by the crowd behind them. Meanwhile, another group arrived from Tinkune, positioning themselves behind the police line. The police suddenly found themselves nearly encircled, but tried to hold their ground until the group approaching from behind advanced and tore down the barricade. Water cannons were fired, but they failed to stop the massive crowd. The police, including the APF, retreated toward the parliament building. Facing ‘zero-resistance’, protesters reached the parliament’s southern (main) gate. Some moved toward the western gate, attempting to surround the building. Until then, there had been no baton charge, but as protesters gathered at the southern gate, police struck with batons once and began firing teargas to disperse the crowd.
Situation awareness and brutality
While this was happening, the Home Minister was attending a parliamentary committee meeting to discuss a bill. They were promptly extracted, exposing once again the weakness of our intelligence system. After their extraction, curfew was imposed around the Parliament, and police began shooting at protesters trying to storm the building. With mobile network signals nearly shut down due to the massive crowd, people had no way of knowing about the curfew or what was happening ahead.
The area around the Parliament remained tense throughout the day as hospitals filled with the injured. Instead of easing the situation, police brutality escalated. By evening, videos surfaced showing police storming Civil Hospital, located in front of the Parliament, and firing teargas shells inside. In Bir Hospital, where ad hoc blood donation camps had been set up, police again used force, injuring people who had gathered to donate blood for victims in critical condition.
Police started search operations, storming private residences and hostels looking for protesters, storming shops and beating shopkeepers. They were charging innocent travelers with batons. On Sept 8, the principle of use of force was totally disregarded. Police brutality was at its height, which acted as fuel for the rage for the fires that would ensue the next day.
Conspiracy
There are a lot of speculations and conspiracy theories going around regarding the use of snipers to shoot students and instigate violence from external forces. A video showing a student in the middle of the crowd getting shot is circulating, reinforcing these speculations. Questions are being raised as to how a person in the middle of the crowd could get shot and not the person standing in front of him.
According to security analyst Chiran Jung Thapa, conspiracies cannot be ruled out; however, the use of snipers can only be proven after a thorough investigation. As per his observations, 2,200 shots were fired by the Nepal Police as a whole, but most of them were fired into the air. When a bullet is shot into the air, it does not simply disappear, it has to come down. When coming down, the bullet will follow the trajectory in which it was fired. This might be the reason why a student in the middle of the crowd got shot.
Conclusion
It is not that the security forces of Nepal are incapable of handling protests of such a scale. Their capacity was seen in March when Durga Prasai drove his vehicle through the barricade of Tinkune all the way to the Parliament building, instigating the protestors to join him. Back then, the security forces were well-prepared with adequate layers of barricades, personnel and equipment, enabling them to stop the protesters from moving toward the Parliament building.
It is because of a lack of preparedness or intention of the concerned authorities, heavy politicization of intelligence and security agencies, lack of professionalism among the security personnel on the ground, and rulers tripping on power with inflated ego that the tragic incidents of Sept 8 unfolded and paved the way for the destruction of Sept 9.
The author is program coordinator & research associate at the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE)
