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While there are concerns growing over the rise in internal and external debt burdens of the country in recent years, Nepal appears to be in a safe position in terms of indebtedness compared to most South Asian countries. In South Asia, Nepal’s external debt to revenue ratio is the third lowest after Afghanistan and India, according to Debt Justice, an INGO, said in its latest report published early last week. Nepal’s projected external debt payment in 2022, 2023, and 2024 stands at 4.2 percent, 4.3 percent, and 4.5 percent, respectively, of total government revenue, according to the report. When it comes to Afghanistan, it is 1.5 percent, 1.6 percent, and 1.7 percent of the revenue in the three years, the report stated. India’s scheduled external debt payment is 3.2 percent, 3.1 percent, and 3.3 percent of its revenue in these three years. Sri Lanka is in the most vulnerable position followed by Pakistan. High indebtedness and shortage of foreign exchange reserves invited massive protests in both countries as the former strongman president of Sri Lanka—Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee the country last year. According to the report, Sri Lanka’s external debt payment to annual revenue ratio is projected to be 81.4 percent, 75 percent, and 78.6 percent in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively. The report said Sri Lanka is spending the highest percentage of its revenue on servicing foreign debt. When it comes to Pakistan, its projected external debt payment in these three years is expected to be 40 percent, 46.7 percent, and 42.5 percent. Projected external debt payment by Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Maldives in these three years compared to their government’s annual revenue is projected to be much higher than that of Nepal, according to the report. The Debt Justice said that the figures for external government debt payments have been calculated primarily from the World Bank’s International Debt Statistics database while the figures for government revenue are calculated from World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October last year. Data show that Nepal is less vulnerable to external debt compared to other South Asian countries. "Nepal still has a lot of fiscal space to grow its external debt," said an economist. According to the Public Debt Management Office, Nepal’s total outstanding external debt stood at Rs 1102.5 billion out of a total of Rs 2070.5 billion as of the second quarter of the current fiscal year 2022-23. Nepal’s total debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio as of the second quarter of this fiscal stood at 42.67 percent and the share of external debt was 22.72 percent. Nepal’s newly introduced law on Public Debt Management allows the government to raise external loans up to one-third of the country's GDP in the past year. Officials say as nearly 90 percent of external loans have been received from multilateral donors like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, whose interest rate is below one percent, Nepal is not facing much risk of inflated cost. But in recent years, Nepal’s public debt has been growing rapidly. Both external and internal loans of the government have been surging to cover the cost of post-earthquake reconstruction since 2015 and to tackle Covid-19, according to the PDMO. As a result, the government has been forced to spend big on debt servicing. A total of Rs 186.6 billion has been allocated for loan repayment in the current fiscal year, of which Rs 134.32 billion is for internal debt servicing. In the last fiscal year, the government spent Rs 121.99 billion on debt servicing. Amid growing debt liability amid sluggish revenue collection, there are concerns that the debt would be used in projects with high yields. “It is necessary to ensure that debt is utilized in financially feasible high-yielding sectors,” said the economist. Percentage of external debt against govt's revenue  

Senior leaders of the three major political parties have discussed the appointment of chief justice. Prime Minister and CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, main opposition CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, aNepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba and Speaker of the House of Representatives Devraj Ghimire have agreed to call a meeting of the Constitutional Council. Nepali Congress Chief Whip Ramesh Lekhak said that matters relating to the appointment of chief justice and summoning a meeting of the Constitutional Council were discussed in the meeting. Oli took the proposal of Prime Minister Dahal’s proposal to call a meeting of the Constitutional Council in a positive way. He said that the meeting will take place within a few days. The acting chief justice is taking responsibility of the apex court after the lawmakers of the Nepali Congress and the CPN (Maoist Center) filed an impeachment motion against then Chief Justice Cholendra Shumsher Rana. Lekhak said that the meeting also discussed TRC among other bills.    

The gold is being traded at Rs 110, 000 per tola in the domestic market on Monday. According to the Federation of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers’ Association, tejabi gold is being traded at Rs 109, 500 per tola. Similarly, the silver is being traded at Rs 1,450 per tola today.

With the drastic slowdown in economic activities in the country, the government is finding it hard to manage resources to fund its recurrent expenditure even after all import restrictions were lifted in early December last year. Nepal's half of the federal government’s revenue comes from the taxes it levies on imports. The Department of Customs (DoC) and Inland Revenue Department (IRD), the key agencies of the country's revenue regime, have reported dismal revenue collection as of mid-April of this fiscal. According to DoC, revenue collection stood at Rs 34.76 billion in Chaitra (mid-March to mid-April) against the target of Rs 57.29 billion. After the government's import control measures, which were aimed at improving the external sector of the economy, affected revenue collection, the government first lifted the over seven-month ban on the imports of automobiles, liquors, and expensive mobile sets in early December last year. Then, on January 20, the Nepal Rastra Bank annulled the nearly year-long provision of importers requiring to deposit cash margins of up to 100 percent in the banks to open letters of credit (LC) for the imports of around 300 goods. However, these measures have failed to help the government to improve revenue collection. Nearly half of the target revenue collection occurs in Chaitra month when imports are supposed to grow to meet the demands of publicly funded projects as the government's capital expenditure accelerates in the second half of the fiscal year. By the end of the third quarter of the current fiscal year, the customs department could collect only Rs 285 billion against the target of Rs 490 billion, collecting only 58 percent of the target. “Even after the import restriction measures were lifted, automobile dealers have not made fresh imports of automobiles,” said a senior official of the customs department. “They have not completed customs clearance even though around 4.000 vehicles have been parked in the customs for months.” Most of these vehicles that were imported in recent months were based on the LCs opened before the government imposed a ban on the import of vehicles along with foreign alcohol and expensive mobile sets among others in April last year. The official said that the automobile dealers have complained about the lack of demand for vehicles in the market and the lack of auto loans. Import taxes on vehicles fall among the largest sources of revenue. In the last fiscal year 2021/22, the government collected revenue of Rs 66.30 billion from four and two-wheelers, according to the customs department. “Likewise, the import of capital goods including machinery and iron and steel have also slumped,” the official said. “It suggests a slowdown in economic activities by both the public and the private sector.” During the first quarter of the current fiscal year, the economy grew by just 0.8 percent. Besides import-based revenue, the situation of inland revenue collection is also dismal. According to IRD, collection of revenue under its offices as of mid-April stood at Rs 337 billion which is less than Rs 342.65 billion collected during the same period of the last fiscal year 2021/22. As of April 15, the overall revenue collection of the government stood at Rs 683.86 billion against the collection of Rs 789.96 billion collected during the same period last fiscal year 2021/22, according to the Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO). The revenue has not been enough even to meet the recurrent expenditure of the government which stood at Rs 706.85 billion as of April 15. The government is facing difficulty even paying the contractors who have finished their work on various development projects. Citing the reduced resource availability, the government decided to reduce administrative expenditure by 20 percent. Subsequently, the government trimmed its expenditure plan (budget) for the current fiscal year 2022/23 by 13.59 percent through the mid-term review of the budget. This translates to a reduction of a staggering Rs 243.83 billion in the current fiscal year's budget. The revised budget now amounts to Rs 1,549.99 billion against the initial budget of Rs 1,793.83 billion.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Speaker of the House of Representatives Devraj Ghimire and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba have reached CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli’s residence in Balkot on Monday. They have reached Balkot to discuss the TRC bill among other contemporary political issues with Oli. PM Dahal, who is also the Chairman of the CPN (Maoist Center), has reached Balkot for the first time after he left the alliance led by the UML. Though the three senior leaders had held meetings for two times at the initiatives of Speaker Ghimire earlier, they could not reach a conclusion. Though the leaders had agreed to make the TRC among other bills justifiable and widely acceptable, they are yet to decide on the issues and procedures. The whips of three political parties have also reached Balkot to take part in the meeting. Breaking the then five-party alliance, Dahal was appointed as the prime minister on December 25 by forging an alliance with the UML. The alliance with the UML broke down after the Maoist Center decided to support the Nepali Congress in the presidential election. Later, the UML recalled the ministers and withdrew the support extended to the Dahal-led government. Now, the UML is playing the role of main opposition in the Parliament. After the main opposition opposed the government’s proposal to fast-tracking the transitional justice bill, the government has not moved the bill ahead.  

Nepal and India have expedited their preparations for Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s official visit to India.  According to officials, India has proposed a tentative date for next month. With the appointment of Foreign Minister NP Saud, the government of Nepal is expected to decide on the dates shortly and communicate it to the Indian side. Minister Saud also confirmed that his office will now start preparations for the prime minister’s India trip, during which the two governments are expected to ink some vital agreements particularly in the areas of connectivity and energy cooperation. It has been almost four months since Dahal came to power, and as a customary practice, he is set to make his first official visit to India. An official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said most prime ministerial visits to India in the past were rather rushed, but the ministry is making intensive preparations this time so that the trip yields some tangible results. Over the past few years, Nepal and India haven’t signed any significant deals during the prime minister-level visits, as the two countries were focused on implementation of past agreements. But this time, the two sides are likely to make some important agreements, said a government source. However, a breakthrough on the border dispute or on the issue of revisiting the 1950 treaty between the two countries is unlikely to happen. A government source said the two governments could agree to resolve these issues through their diplomatic channel. PM Dahal is under pressure from the opposition parties to take up these issues with India. But the Indian side has maintained that these issues could be resolved only if they are not ‘politicized.’  

Tika Prasad Dhakal is an expert on international relations, transitional justice and geopolitics, who served as an advisor to former President Bidya Devi Bhandari. These days he is busy participating in public discourse on Nepal’s long drawn-out transitional justice process. Kamal Dev Bhattarai of ApEx speaks to him on various issues surrounding the bill to amend the transitional justice law, which is currently in Parliament.. The transitional justice bill has drawn widespread criticisms. What is your take on this? Regrettably, I must say that there has been scant advancement in satisfying the fundamental legal standards in the amendment bill. It has many faults both in its process and content. The government should have transparently assessed more than a dozen Supreme Court (SC) verdicts and documents of the past fifteen years, and sought input from the affected parties, particularly the victim community. But the ruling coalition rushed a deeply flawed bill in Parliament, which came in response to the Supreme Court’s decision to accept a case against Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal for conflict-era human rights violations. So this reactive bill neglects several crucial judgements and benchmarks established by the court. It is now upon our Parliament to address the shortcomings in the bill. What are the main sticking points of the bill? There are two perspectives to consider when evaluating this bill. While many of us tend to focus solely on its content and compare it to the ‘Enforced Disappearances Inquiry, Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act, 2014’ (TRC Act), a more accurate approach would be to examine it in light of the Supreme Court’s  judgment, from where the very obligation of this amendment origins. However, regardless of the approach, the bill contains several flaws outlined into five areas. The first is related to the security and privacy of cases. The bill fails to include provisions that ensure witness protection, nor does it guarantee the safety of plaintiffs. Without security, witnesses and victims could be intimidated and silenced during the truth-finding process. The second area of concern is gender sensitivity. Any inquiry or investigation into serious human rights violations must take into account the needs of victims of rape and sexual violence. These crimes cannot be forgiven, and it is also important to protect the privacy of the victims. But in a clear violation of the Supreme Court’s rulings, the amendment bill fails to address these issues. The third issue is about the definition of crimes. The bill attempts to classify conflict-era criminalities under two categories: human rights violation and serious violation of human rights. The nine types of crimes listed in the first group are made amnestiable, including murder, torture, sexual violence, and hostage-taking. Crimes in the second group are unamnestiable. The group include four types of crimes: merciless killing of an individual after cruel and inhuman torture, rape, enforced disappearance, and inhuman and cruel torture. This is unacceptable, as it essentially makes some murders pardonable and says only select types of murders may be prosecuted. This amendment proposal sends the message that many of the murders during the Maoist conflict were justifiable. Furthermore, the section of the definition of enforced disappearance has been removed from the TRC Act, making any investigation impossible. The fourth issue is related to the formation of the transitional justice commissions. Lessons learned from the failure of the past commissions should be taken into account. A more transparent and vettable appointment process should be adopted. And finally, the law must not discriminate against the victims, including former child soldiers and the families of affected security personnel. The Maoist party is fearful of any mention of 'child soldiers' used in its rebel armed units. For this, the law may use less contentious terminology as used in United Nations Mission in Nepal’s verification documents, such as 'combatants who were late recruits and minors.' A more holistic view of the law should address the four pillars of transitional justice: truth, justice, reparations, and guarantee of non-recurrence. Could you please elaborate on the international dimensions of Nepal’s transitional justice process? Article 7 of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement mandates that the Maoist party fully adhere to the ‘basic principles and values of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, International Humanitarian Law, and Human Rights Law.’ Hence, any transitional justice law created today will be evaluated against this provision of the peace agreement. The Article 7 validates the voice of the international community on our transitional justice process. In the recent times, our weaknesses hitherto have been picked up by the geopolitical actors to influence our domestic politics from making or breaking the coalition to the formation of the governments. As someone who has worked in this field for several years and someone who comes from a family of martyrs, I believe that gaining the trust of the democratic world, particularly India, is crucial for our transitional justice efforts. After all, the legitimacy of the Nepali Peace Process in 2005-2006 was achieved through India's support and facilitation. Global recognition of a successful transitional justice process, which is also the final stage of the peace process, depends quite largely on the backing of the democratic world. However, we must remain vigilant against any attempts, domestic or external, of geopolitically weaponizing this process. How do you see the commitment of major political parties? The Maoist party, which has once again taken the reins of government after the peace process for the third time, has consistently disregarded transitional justice, primarily out of fear of potential prosecution of its leaders. The Nepali Congress is no different. The party is shamelessly putting their political interests ahead of justice. And let's not forget the CPN-UML, who tried to push the process forward by reforming the commissions in 2020, which failed miserably. It is high time the major political parties reeducated themselves on transitional justice and rose above the interests of individual leaders. So what is the way forward for our transitional justice process? Moving forward, the amendment bill must be referred to the ‘Committee on Law, Justice, and Human Rights’ of Parliament. This will create space for a broad reevaluation and consultation with the victim community and other stakeholders. The law must be informed by a comprehensive assessment of the peace process. In upgrading the content of the bill, all past judgments of the Supreme Court must be evaluated. By doing so, the House committee will be in a position to correct both the process and the content of the bill. Drafting a competent law will require at least three to four months of honest work. We should be able to afford a few months to repair a process that has been delayed for 16 years. To successfully conclude any transitional justice process in the world, a law must be drafted that provides an unquestionable framework for the commissions to balance judicial aspects through collective measures of reparations, truth-seeking, and institutional reforms. However, our government is attempting the opposite: drafting a seriously compromised law and forcing it through the majority. This approach is a recipe for disaster. Politically, an agreement based on democratic ethics among the three major political parties—CPN UML, NC, and Maoists—is crucial for the successful conclusion of this process. One could argue that the ruling coalition has a majority and may pass the flawed law. The principal opposition UML's role becomes critical in this scenario. As a signatory of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, an isolated CPN-UML may declare in the House that it would reopen all conflict-era cases as soon as it comes to power. At this point, the entire transitional justice process would suffer a huge setback, leading to a deeper crisis of confidence. We should be prepared for a situation like in Argentina, where the transitional justice process had to be restarted with a prosecutorial approach from scratch within five years of introducing the Full Stop Law in 1998. UML’s position should, therefore, deter the ruling coalition from moving unilaterally. Nepal's transitional justice process will move towards resolution as soon as these three major political parties express a collective commitment in the parliament.

President Ram Chandra Paudel administered the oath of office and secrecy to newly appointed Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Prakash (NP) Saud amidst a special ceremony at the Office of the President in Sheetal Niwas today. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal had appointed Saud, a Nepali Congress leader and member of the House of Representatives, today. Vice-President Ram Sahay Prasad Yadav, Prime Minister Dahal, Speaker Devraj Ghimire and National Assembly Chairperson Ganesh Prasad Timilsina were present in the program. Minister Saud also today took charge of his office at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Singha Durbar. The Nepali Congress central committee member Saud has already served as the Minister for Irrigation in 2070 BS and as the Minister of State for Education and Sports in 2057 BS. He was elected to the House of Representatives from Kanchanpur-2 in 2056 BS and 2070 BS. He was also elected to the House of Representatives from the same constituency in the election held on November 20, 2022. Saud joined the Nepal Students Union (NSU), the student wing of the Nepali Congress, in 2036 BS and forayed into politics. He was elected the vice-president of NSU in 2043 BS and went on to become the central president in 2048 BS. He was born to father Khadga Singh Saud and mother Kushilya Devi on August 9, 1962 in Dadeldhura. His permanent address is Shuklaphanta Municipality-6, Kanchanpur district in Sudurpaschim province. He has visited India, the United States of America, Australia, the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, France, Germany, the Philippines, South Korea, Egypt, Japan, Singapore, Qatar, Thailand, among other countries.