The election of March 5 stands as a transformative milestone in Nepal’s democratic evolution, effectively dismantling the long-standing narrative that the Constitution of Nepal 2015 created insurmountable structural barriers to a single-party mandate. For years, the prevailing wisdom among political analysts suggested that the country’s mixed electoral framework, with its heavy emphasis on proportional representation, rendered a decisive majority nearly impossible for any nascent political force.
However, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) defied these theoretical constraints by securing an unprecedented number of parliamentary seats and over 5m proportional votes. This massive electoral ‘signature’ served as a powerful public referendum on the leadership of Rabi Lamichhane, functioning as a popular exoneration while he remained in legal custody facing allegations of cooperative finance fraud. This outcome suggests that a significant portion of the electorate viewed these judicial proceedings as politically motivated rather than purely legal, signaling a profound shift in the national psyche toward a collective aspiration for prosperity that transcends traditional partisan arithmetic.
By positioning itself as a disruptor of systemic corruption and administrative lethargy, the RSP has demonstrated that a platform centered on institutional integrity can overcome the perceived limitations of a fragmented multiparty system. Yet, this victory brings with it a complex set of challenges, particularly regarding the intersection of judicial process and political will.
While the RSP successfully harnessed public frustration to secure power, it must now perform the difficult task of translating populist momentum into stable, rule-of-law-based governance. To satisfy the expectations of a diverse citizenry without further polarizing the nation’s legal and political institutions, the party must convert its immense political capital into a coherent and functional fiscal pathway. The mandate is rooted in a fundamental public trust that the RSP can modernize the economy and restore ethical purity to state institutions; a goal that necessitates a radical departure from a status quo-ist fiscal policy.
A central pillar of this reform agenda involves a comprehensive overhaul of Nepal’s Public Financial Management (PFM) to address deep-seated structural imbalances that have long stunted national economic development and growth. According to data from the Nepal Rastra Bank, the national GDP at current prices has reached Rs 6,107.2bn, but the composition of this figure reveals a concerning reality: the service sector dominates at 62.01 percent, while agriculture and industry contribute a mere 25.16 percent and 12.82 percent, respectively.
This heavy reliance on services has failed to generate sufficient high-quality employment or significant value-added economic growth, placing immense pressure on the incoming RSP government to pivot toward aggressive industrial expansion. Strengthening the industrial sector is not merely a fiscal preference but a structural necessity for fostering meaningful job creation, setting up an export-oriented economy and achieving long-term, sustainable economic stability.
The existing national revenue architecture, though diverse, remains increasingly strained by its reliance on a complex but inefficient portfolio of instruments, including income taxes, VAT, and specialized levies for health and education. Even as the Inland Revenue Department reports a steady upward trajectory in total revenue from Rs 429.3bn in 2020-21 to Rs 583.82bn in 2024-25, these nominal gains mask significant underlying vulnerabilities.
Most especially, the Department of Customs highlights a precarious imbalance where import-related revenue reached Rs 478bn in the latest fiscal year, dwarfing export-related revenue of only Rs 277bn. This datapoint underscores a disproportionate and risky dependence on trade-based public revenue, which leaves the national budget highly susceptible to global market fluctuations and external shocks.
Despite rising revenue figures, the Ministry of Finance continues to face formidable challenges in meeting its fiscal targets due to systemic weaknesses within its primary institutions. These institutional bottlenecks include a chronic deficit of skilled human capital, substandard technological infrastructure, and the persistent threat of moral hazard within the PFM administration. Such vulnerabilities ensure that the modernization of PFM entities remains a critical but largely unfulfilled mandate.
Without addressing these fundamental administrative flaws and diversifying the tax base away from volatile import duties, the government will likely continue to struggle with fiscal shortfalls. Consequently, the RSP must lead a comprehensive PFM reform that simplifies tax structures while broadening the base across all levels of the federal polity, ensuring that the modernization of PFM entities move from a theoretical goal to an operational reality.
Furthermore, a decade into the federal transition, the promise of genuine fiscal federalism remains in a state of perilous limbo. At the subnational government level, revenue mobilization is severely hampered by operational hurdles and an inefficient bureaucracy that prevents provincial and local governments from exercising their constitutional fiscal autonomy. Revitalizing subnational governance is a vital priority and without enhancing the efficacy of the subnational polity, the federal system can neither collect nor strategically mobilize the resources required to address the urgent needs of its citizenry.
Establishing transparency in budgeting, auditing, and fiscal reporting is essential to fostering public trust and enhancing the scientific application of federal transfers. Additionally, the government must adopt strategic debt management, strictly limiting sovereign borrowing to productive, high-yield investments to close the financing gap for high-priority projects without jeopardizing long-term solvency.
The budget (for the fiscal year 2026-27) of the RSP must also prioritize inclusive microeconomic integration to uplift rural and marginalized communities who have placed their faith in the RSP. The objective is to move beyond mere subsistence, fostering an environment where marginalized populations are integrated into national economic value chains by stimulating local entrepreneurship and increasing productive capacity. This requires a dual-track approach to youth engagement and industrialization that balances short-term job creation with long-term structural transformation. Rather than maintaining a narrow focus on traditional microfinance, which often leads to high-interest debt cycles without capital growth, the budget should emphasize comprehensive rural finance programs designed to facilitate capital formation and technical scaling.
By providing affordable, long-term credit and strengthening SME financing policies, the RSP can ensure that capital is directed toward productive investments rather than just consumption, making the youth stakeholders in a decentralized, inclusive economy.
To catalyze this broader transformation, the RSP must prioritize a strategic pivot toward energy and infrastructure, investing in new generation projects to lower electricity costs and modernizing the grid to support industrial demand. Rather than exporting raw energy at a discount, the goal must be the cultivation of an energy-intensive domestic economy at every river basin level supported by robust logistics hubs. Parallel to this, the ICT sector offers immense potential for economic diversification. By spearheading a digital economy initiative and providing tax incentives for startups, the state can leverage domestic energy to fuel technology services. A national digital training program for youth, coupled with the full digitization of government business, would absorb the trained labor force and reduce administrative costs, mirroring successful models of youth mobilization seen in advanced economies.
Ultimately, the RSP’s success will be measured by its ability to drive agrarian transformation and industrial revitalization. The budget must emphasize ‘smart farming’, integrated agro-processing, and robust rural infrastructure to minimize post-harvest losses. Simultaneously, the strategic revival of distressed or ‘sick’ industries such as jute, rubber, paper, and textiles; offers a ‘triple benefit’ of employment generation, import substitution, and enhanced national competitiveness.
By modernizing social services through digital classrooms and Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) curricula, the RSP can ensure long-term human development and capability lead to function. Shifting national priorities away from a reliance on remittances and toward high-growth sectors like tourism and sustainable farming will build a truly inclusive macroeconomic framework. These reforms serve as a tangible reward for the mandate granted by the citizenry, translating the political support for leaders like Rabi Lamichhane and Balendra Shah into a resilient, self-sufficient national economy that finally fulfills the public trust.
