Since the formation of the Sushila Karki–led government following Sept 8–9 protests, there has been minimal engagement between Kathmandu and Beijing. In the aftermath of the GenZ protests, Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song met Prime Minister Sushila Karki and other government ministers to convey Beijing’s concerns, but there have been no high-level visits between Kathmandu and Beijing.
Typically, October, November and December see a high number of visits as part of preparations for the coming year. This time, however, not only have the visits from China declined, but overall Chinese activities have also slowed. A China watcher noted, “Beijing may be in a wait-and-see position as the political developments unfold in Nepal.”
Similarly, Beijing’s viewpoint may be that since the current government cannot take major policy decisions, it is better to wait for the new government to be formed after the elections. According to people familiar with the matter, Beijing has conveyed two messages to Nepal following the GenZ protests. First, what happened on Sept 8–9 and the political course that followed is Nepal’s internal affair. Second, China has strongly raised its security concerns due to the open involvement of some Tibetan groups in those protests.
Over the past decade, China’s political, economic and security influence in Nepal has grown, increasing Beijing’s confidence that any government in power will refrain from jeopardizing its security interests related to Tibetan activities. However, the events of September have renewed Beijing’s worries.
Thus, after the GenZ movement, Beijing is experiencing both confidence and insecurity regarding its security interests. China is now closely monitoring the activities of the Tibetan community as well as broader political developments, including cabinet formation. Beijing believes that there can be no substantial progress on the Belt and Road Initiative under the current government. For this reason, China has adopted a policy of maintaining only a working relationship with the new government, with a special emphasis on security concerns. During this period, several Chinese delegations visited Nepal to study the Genz movement and assess potential challenges to bilateral relations.
