Nepal's contemporary political history shows that an unstable political system has been a constant. The country is at another crossroads following the Sept 8-9 protest of GenZers against chronic corruption, nepotism and political instability that overthrew the government of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, leading to the dissolution of the Parliament through a presidential decree and the appointment of a retired Chief Justice, Sushila Karki, as PM, with the sole mandate of holding elections to the House of Representatives on March 5 next year. One of the most important questions that we face as a nation at this point in time is: What will happen if the government fails to conduct the polls on time?
What’s more, the course that Nepal takes will have implications for regional stability too.
A history of instability
To understand the gravity of this moment, we must look at Nepal's troubled political history. Since the restoration of multiparty democracy in 1990, our country has witnessed more than two dozen prime ministers. Between 2008 and 2025 alone, Nepal saw 14 different governments. This carousel of leadership has created a political culture where power sharing out-dated policy implementation, and coalition building became more important than serving the people.
In 1961, King Mahendra banned political parties and began the Panchayat system, which remained until 1990, when a popular movement compelled King Birendra to go for multiparty democracy with constitutional monarchy. With the start of the Maoist insurgency in 1996, Nepal entered a decade-long civil war that killed more than 17,000 people. After the people's movement of 2006, the monarchy got abolished (in 2008) and the Constitution promulgated seven years later turned Nepal into a federal secular democratic republic.
Political instability continues to be Nepal’s defining feature in spite of these constitutional accomplishments. Frequent changes in administration have caused public confidence to plummet, slowed down development initiatives and fostered an atmosphere that allows nepotism and corruption to thrive unchecked.
The GenZ awakening
The September 2025 GenZ protests were not spontaneous, they were the eruption of long simmering frustration. The government banned 26 social media platforms on Sept 4 to silence dissent and what followed is public knowledge.
Young Nepalis, representing over 60 percent of the population under age 30, poured into the streets with three clear demands: end corruption, eliminate nepotism, and reform the political system.
This movement stood out from earlier demonstrations due to its leaderless, digital-native nature. GenZ activists organized using social media sites like Facebook, Instagram and Discord, completely avoiding established political systems. While regular Nepalis faced depleting earnings and a youth unemployment rate of 20 percent, they revealed the extravagant lifestyles of politicians' offspring, known as “nepo kids,” who were vacationing in Europe and shopping for expensive brands.
On Sept 8, police opened fire during the movements, killing 19 people, including a 12-year-old. The next day, angry demonstrators stormed and burnt the Supreme Court, Parliament and the homes of politicians. There were 72 fatalities in all. PM Oli resigned on Sept 9 and Sushila Karki succeeded him, becoming the country's first female PM, on Sept 12, leading an interim administration with the sole goal of holding free and fair elections on March 5 next year.
A gray area
The interim government exists in a constitutional gray area. Nepal’s 2015 Constitution does not explicitly provide for appointing a prime minister, who is not a sitting member of the parliament. The current arrangement emerged through negotiations involving President Ramchandra Paudel and Chief of the Army Staff Ashok Raj Sigdel with GenZ representatives—an unprecedented process that bypassed normal constitutional channels.
Under the Constitution, the House of Representatives comprises 275 members: 165 elected through FPTP from single constituencies and 110 through proportional representation. The Election Commission has approved the election schedule, with political parties required to register between November 16-26, 2025, campaign period running from February 15 to March 2 next year and voting on March 5 (7 am-5 pm).
The interim government has formed a judicial commission to investigate the violence, appointed untainted candidates as ministers and pledged to serve a maximum six-month term. Prime Minister Karki promised diplomats that her government is “non-political” with a “single, non-negotiable mandate”—conducting elections on the stipulated date (March 5 next year).
Neighborly influence
The political stability of Nepal affects the entire region. For both the neighbours—China and India—Nepal’s stability is very important.
India and Nepal have an open border, and India is home to the largest Nepali diaspora. An open border between two sovereign countries is taking a toll on the overall security of both the countries, thanks to a relatively unrestricted movement of people, transnational crimes and illegal trade.
In order to protect its Tibetan border and further BRI projects, China sees Nepal as strategically significant. Beijing emphasized its commitment to “regional stability” by quickly recognizing the Karki-led government. However, Nepal’s inability to strengthen bilateral ties and repeated changes in administration have become a constant irritant for China.
Both the neighbors kept a close watch on the GenZ movement. China voiced hope that “dialogue will restore social order,” while the Indian ambassador was present at Karki’s swearing-in. Our history shows that any extended instability invites outside intervention, teaching us to move with extreme caution.
Consequences of electoral delays
If elections do not occur on March 5 next year, Nepal faces dire consequences across multiple dimensions.
Political Crisis: The commitment of the interim government to holding elections on time is the only thing that gives it legitimacy. Any delay might spark violent protests again because it would be seen as treachery. The CPN (Maoist Center), Nepali Congress, and CPN-UML are the main major groups that already oppose the temporary arrangement; some call for the reinstatement of Parliament. Nepal might experience a constitutional crisis in the absence of elections, necessitating either military action or authoritarian governance.
Economic collapse: Damages from the protests in September totalled $22.5bn, or over half of Nepal’s GDP. Growth estimates dropped below one percent, investor confidence hit rock bottom and cancellations decimated tourism throughout the holiday season. Prolonged uncertainty is too much for Nepal's economy, which already depends on remittances that account for more than 25 percent of GDP. Postponing elections will hinder reconstruction efforts, halt development initiatives and encourage more young people to go overseas.
Social instability: GenZ called for the abolition of nepotism, direct executive elections and investigations into corruption scandals from 1990 to 2025. Postponing elections will not make these goals go away. Young people’s “radically different understandings of power, deference and legitimacy” from older generations came to light through the movement, revealing significant generational gaps. Continued isolation runs the risk of radicalization, which could reignite an armed insurgency or ethnic conflicts similar to the Maoist insurgency of 1996–2006.
Regional instability: The crisis in Nepal is similar to recent upheavals in Bangladesh (2024) and Sri Lanka (2022), where youth movements and economic desperation overthrew governments. In addition to upsetting India-China relations and undermining trust in democratic institutions throughout the region, a failed transition in Nepal will destabilize South Asia.
Will big parties cooperate?
There is an existential challenge for established parties. Although they still have rural support and organizational strength, the GenZ movement has destroyed their credibility. How the new and the old parties fare remains to be seen.
The CPN-UML has called for the restoration of the Parliament, while others insist elections proceed as scheduled. Some traditional leaders refuse to resign or make way for younger voices, clinging to power despite widespread discontent. Yet cooperation is essential, elections without major party participation would lack legitimacy.
While tackling three pressing issues—restoring police infrastructure damaged during protests, removing legal barriers preventing young voters from voting and establishing a competent commission to investigate the violence—Prime Minister Karki must forge unity across the political spectrum. Current methods put thousands of young people at risk of losing their right to vote, while the pledge to grant Nepalis overseas the right to vote remains a pledge.
The path forward
More than just a democratic exercise, the March 2026 election will determine if Nepal can overcome the decades-long cycles of instability. The GenZ movement demanded fairness, clean government, and youth participation in decision-making; it was more than just resistance.
Success requires political will from all stakeholders. Traditional parties must accept that "rank and power" alone cannot sustain legitimacy. They must embrace reforms, investigate corruption transparently and genuinely include marginalized voices. The interim government must restore law and order, rebuild destroyed institutions, and conduct elections that command legitimacy domestically and internationally.
If elections fail to take place on time, Nepal faces a grim future: constitutional crisis, economic ruin, social upheaval and regional destabilization. But if we seize this moment, if political leaders rise above narrow interests and young citizens engage constructively, Nepal can finally establish stable, accountable governance.
The choice is ours. A government born from a people’s movement cannot afford to fail. The world watches as Nepal stands at a crossroads: reconstruction or regression, democracy or chaos, hope or despair. Our response to this question “If the elections are not held in time, what will happen?” will define Nepal’s route for generations to come. So, let’s create a conducive environment for free and fair elections.
